Transcript smart-grids-for-India-Oct11

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SMART-GRID IN INDIAN
CONTEXT
Ashok Jhunjhunwala, IIT Madras
[email protected]
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INDIAN CONTEXT
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Euro1 = Rs65
As India’s Economy continues to grow
• India’s average GDP growth during 2006-09: 8.6%
• Yet per capita income dismally low at Rs 46,500 last year
• 7% world’s GDP: economy fourth-largest in world in PPP terms
• Increasing demand for energy from a low base
• energy production just 4% of and consumption only 5% of world’s
• But affordability is the key
• solutions that sell in india has to be at Indian prices
% of world
Population
17
GDP
7
Consumption
Net national Income Growth
14.5
per-capita electricity (kWh) 704
2752
average energy (TOE)
1.82
Personal Disposable Income 14.7
India
0.53
World
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India’s Fuel-wise
Generation-Capacity (MW)
• Generation capacity
180000
continues to increase
160000
• Keeping pace with
140000
country’s rapid (8 to 9%)
economic growth
120000
100000
Energy Generated (BU)
80000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
60000
40000
20000
0
2003
Thermal
2004
2005
Hydro
2006
2007
Nuclear
2008
2009
RES
2010
Total
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Dominant Fuel Sources
• Coal: good for base-load
• significant domestic reserves
• proven reserves of 105 billion tonnes
• could last 200 years at current level of production
• Not good for environment
• Natural gas share up from 4.4% to 10% in last 15 years
• emit half as much CO2 per kWh as compared to coal-based plants
• Hydroelectric potential of 600 billion kWh per annum
• Capacity of 148.7 GW
• only 23% realised so far
• High initial costs and developmental risks
• Nuclear: small
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Renewable Energy sources (RES)
• High Potential: Achievements small
• By 2012 to go up to 23,476 MW
• perennial energy source
• Wind power to contribute 74%
• lower reliance on imported fossil fuels
• Amongst five largest in world
• Constraint: High Initial Cost
• lower CO2 emissions
Source
Potential (MW)
Achieved (MW)
Bio-mass
62,000
866
Wind-power
45,000
11,807
Small Hydro-power
15,000
2,735
Co-generation - Bagasse
5000
1334
Waste to energy
5000
65
Rural Distributed Power
30,000
Captive Distributed: industrial /
commercial
20,000
405
Total
182,000
17,222
Solar Power
4-7 kWh/sq m/day
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Power Supply Shortage
Plant Load Factor (%)
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
• Even Plant Load Factor have also
continued to increase along with
generation
• Plant load factor still low
• India’s Per-Capita yearly Electricity
Consumption is only 704.4 kWh as
opposed to world average of 2,752 kWh
Availability far behind Requirements
• Meerut, barely 50 Kms form Delhi,
has 12 hour power-cuts in summer
months
• Most of 600000 villages connected
• 17% villages unconnected
• Over 60% have power for 4 to 10 hours
• Quite a few for less than 4 hours a day
Energy ( MU)
Peak (MW)
Requirements
933741
136193
Availability
837374
118676
Surplus
-96367
-17517
Surplus %
-10.3%
-12.9%
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Euro1 = Rs65
But average deficit is deceiving
• As evident from the fluctuating
prices at Power Markets
• Day variation of Rs 2000 to 4500
per MWh
• Prices varies from Rs 2000 to
12000 per MWh in one week
• Huge power shortage during
peak hours
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TOWARDS SOLUTIONS
For India’s energy problem
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Transmission and Distribution
Losses
• Varies between 20% to 45%
• Average in between 30 to 35%
• Combination of leakage and losses
• Requires technology and processes to plug this
• Transmission Losses are indeed measured in real time
• Reasons for losses can be figured out
• Measure power at distribution transformer output line as
well as the consumer-meters in real time?
• An unusual difference implies something is wrong
• Requires electronic meters with communications
• Indian homes uses mechanical meters: cost reasons
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Yes, there is huge energy saving potential
• Known technologies could result in huge electrical power savings
• Constraints
• Low affordability in the nation
• High Investment on new appliances, better processes
• Today’s estimated saving potential: 183.5 billion kWh
Require new
low cost
solutions
2007-08
Consumption
(B kWh)
Conservative
Savings
Agricultural Pumping
92.3
27.8
Commercial Buildings
9.9
2.0
Municipalities
12.5
2.9
Domestic
120.9
24.2
Industry (including SMEs)
265.4
18.6
Total (Billion kWh)
501
75.4
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Why continue to use AC appliances?
• Lighting
• LEDs, 10 to 100 times more efficient as compared to tungsten
bulb, use only DC power
• CFL is neutral to AC or DC power
• Motor: a small DC motor can be 2.5 tomes more energy efficient as
compared to a AC motor
• Historically brush replacement needed – but not anymore
•
•
•
•
A fan is primarily a motor – a dc fan also allows better speed control
A refrigerator is essentially a motor
An air-conditioner is primarily a motor
A washing-machine / grinder is a motor
• Electronics: all electronics (mobiles/TV/Computers) use low voltage DC
• Need a ac/dc power adaptor to charge
• World switched to AC primarily for transmission of power
• Any ac / dc conversion or vice-versa implies 7 to 15% losses
Has time come to switch back – at least at customer’s premises?
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Sun shines brightly over India
• India can certainly use solar energy, as capital goods prices fall
• Solar photo-voltaic provides DC power for about six hours a day
• Rs 100 per Wh capital cost: with 10% interest and payback in 20 years, amounts to
Rs 12 per year(not computing costs of land)
• Costs a little over Rs 7.25 / kWh assuming 10% losses
• As opposed to Rs 3 to 5 per kWh for grid power
• If not used immediately, would require feeding to grid
• dc to ac conversion loss + grid T&D losses
Solar PV power price
• Expensive energy being wasted
computation
• Or Energy Storage Systems
investment per kWh Rs. 1,00,000.00
sun-hours/day
• Just like several other renewable energy solutions like wind-power, power from
ocean-waves
10%
interest rate
number of days /year
20
depreciation (years)
gen/yr
• Off-grid (local usage)
in day-time would
maketotalapower
lot inofKwhsense
yearly payment
Euro1 = Rs65
Rs. -11,745.96
price per kWh
Losses
Rs. 7.25
6
300
1800
10%
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Euro1 = Rs65
Energy Storage
• Batteries are expensive proposition for back-up
• Lead acid battery: 1500 cycles if operated between 60 to 100% capacity
• 1 kWh back-up will cost Rs 16.3/ kWh assuming single charge / discharge per day
• Assuming Rs 6000 per kWh battery and 10% interest rate
• Li Ion battery: 5000 cycles if operated between 10% to 90% capacity
• 1 kWh back-up will cost Rs 20 per kWh assuming single charge per day
• Assuming Rs 25000 per kWh battery and 10% interest
Lead
battery
• Solar requires different
kindacid
of storage
Battery
cost (per
kWh)must
Rs. work
6,000.00
(to deliver
Rs. 15,000.00
• Storage
price
out to be Battery
small cost
compared
to1kWh)
solar generation
discharge
40%
depreciation (years)
4.11
• At current prices, it hardly
makes sense
Number of cycles
1500
Storage cost per unit
interest rate
10%
• Alternative: Can energy be stored in any other way
cycles used per day
1
•
Say
in
form
of
ice
and
to
be
Losses
10% used for cooling
• Current costs much less than that of electrical battery
Rs. 16.27
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When do the demand peak in India?
Sept 23rd
• Depends on which time of year?
• There are two peaks:
• Day: 11 am to 4 pm
• Evening: 7 pm to 11 pm
• Evening peak is worst most of
the year
• Homes/ shops add to late office hrs
May 19th
• Day peak can be bad in
Summer months
• Air Con is significant load
June
6th
May 2nd
Feb 9th
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Decentralized Solar PV
• Would be ideal in day time
• To complement grid
• Direct usage in offices / shopping malls can reduce the day time peak
load requirement to a considerable extent
• Some coupling to ice-battery (charged during off-peak hours)
• Makes economic sense today, provided there is space for solar PV
installation
• Some solar PV / solar thermal feeding to grid would be helpful
• What about evening peak loads?
• Solar can not help here
• Reducing load by enhancing efficiency
• Reducing consumptions by introduction of time of day metering
• Using some storage (electrical / ice-battery – charged during 5 PM to 7
PM)
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SOME SCENARIOS
reduce consumption of substantial quantities of diesel,
kerosene, furnace oil
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Euro1 = Rs65
What are the options when power fail?
• Power-Sources:
• Grid: Rs 5 per kWh: ram-bharose (as per god’s will)
• Diesel generator: Rs 17 per kWh when diesel is subsidized visavis
petrol, when generator runs at 80% efficiency: instantaneous
• Costs will go over Rs 25 per kWh without subsidy
• Primary use today in organizations / offices
• Solar PV: Rs 7.50 per kWh when dc is used: day six hours
• Electrical battery back-up: storage costs over Rs 15 per kWh
• Ice-storage: ?
• Usage
• Electrical Load: lighting, motor and electronics
• Cooling Load
• What should one use when? How to optimize?
• What to optimize? – costs, energy consumption, CO2
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Simulations
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Rural Cellular Base Stations
• Remote Base-stations providing communications
• Electrical grid is off for 16 to 20 hours
• Primary operation costs for operators: diesel costs
• How to use battery back-up, diesel generator and solar power
optimally to operate the base station?
• Will ice-battery help? Certainly!
• Can we save energy at base station?
• Especially energy needed for cooling
• Will DC motors (for exhaust fans) and LEDs help?
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Solar PV for Rural Schools
• Rural Schools are used only during day time
• Primarily fan, some light and some electronics
• Solar PV with a small battery (grid-connected) would be a
great solution
• When sun-light is poorer, it is cooler and fan usage is lower
• Why not use dc fans?
• Why not use LEDs / CFL
• What should be DC line voltage?
• 48V: Losses in line a consideration
• What will be dc-dc conversion losses?
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Urban Office
• Primarily used in day time
• Solar PV can play a major role
• Complimenting electrical grid
• Use of dc fans, lighting electronics will help
• What should be line voltage? Will the losses be high?
• What will be losses in dc-dc conversion?
• Will ice-battery play a major role?
• charged during off-peak early hours
• How to reduce evening loads?
• Can offices start early and shut early?
• Today many start only around 9:30 am and continue till after 8 PM
• Adding to evening loads – ac and lighting?
• Can we change practice from 8 am to 6 PM?
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Smart-grids for India
• Has to do much more than what is done elsewhere
• Smart-grids in India is to be used to
• Reduce Distribution losses
• Enable decentralized power-generation and optimize usage
• Explore alternate methods of storage, including storage of heat (cool)
• Handle peak-demand better
• Manage demand and supply to meet creatively at all points of time, by
using storage and high-cost instantaneous power-sources
• At local level
• At neighborhood level
• At district level, at state level, at national level
• Intelligently decide where to do load shedding if no other options
• enable time of day metering with remote monitoring
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Smart-grids and efficient appliances
• Possible to come up with new low cost appliances
• Help increase usage efficiency and reduce wastage
• Come with new devices and appliances, may be dc powered
• Come up with better methods of cooling / heating and cooling / heating
locally if required
• Figure out where dc can be used
• what should be the DC line-voltage
• Always watch for costs / investments required
• Smart-grids must help India move away from coal and oil
to renewable resources as its economy grows