Transcript AoC Student Support conference 23 Oct 2014 Julian Gravatt (PPT

Aoc Student support conference
Politics, funding and student support
23 October 2014
Julian Gravatt, Assistant Chief Executive, AoC
[email protected]
@JulianGravatt
http://www.aoc.co.uk/term/funding-finance
Politics – where we are now
Uncertainty
8 months before the 2015 general election
Coalition governing parties disagree on several issues
Labour better able to convert votes into seats
Result currently difficult to call
The Scotland vote is prompting discussions on the constitution
Schools, apprenticeships and university fees all big political issues
AoC manifesto designed to secure helpful but feasible proposals
Planning the next 12 months
Autumn 2014
Party conferences, 21 September to 8 October 2014
EFA Funding Letter, 16 October 2014 (hopefully)
AoC annual conference, 18 to 20 November 2014
Autumn statement, 3 December 2014
Skills Funding Statement, December 2014 (hopefully)
Spring & Summer 2015
Budget, mid March 2015
2014-15 allocations, by end of March 2015
Easter, 7 April 2015
General election, 7 May 2015
Coalition negotiations, May 2015
Spending review, June to October 2015 (hopefully)
Politics and funding
Before the election
General avoidance of boat-rocking
Decisions on 2015-16 funding made before the election
Autumn statement may add to, subtract from or devolve budgets
After the election
Post-election 2015 spending review (budgets from 2016-17 onwards)
Demography: More children now + more old people = post-16 squeeze
Cross-party agreement: closing deficit, cutting taxes & protecting NHS
Spending likely to dip around 2018
The bigger spending picture
800
Government plans
Various budgets get bigger
Pensions, interest, NHS etc
Deficit reduction via RDEL cuts
Unprotected departments
9.1% of GDP (2013-14)
7.8% of GDP (2015-16)
5.4% of GDP (2018-19)
NATO 2% target for defence
Spending cuts c30-40% to come
Loans & fees a safe haven?
700
600
500
Taxes
400
PSCE
RAME
RDEL
300
Deficit
200
100
0
-100
x
The DFE budget after 2015
DFE’s cash crunch: too many schools, pupils & promises
80% of school income spent on staff; on-costs up 5% in 2015-16
UTCs, free schools & studio schools enrol 1% of 16-18s
2015 to 2020: 11-16 pupils +10%, 16-18 population -8%
Pressure for devolution (councils, combined authorities or LEPs?)
Core 16-18 funding system continues for now
BIS budget
BIS budget in 2015-16
£14 bil Student Loans
£13 bil DEL
HEFCE + Grants + Science
£8 bil
19+ FE/Skills budget
£3.5 bil
Various contradictory options are in play
1: Devolve skills & DWP budgets to local govt or LEPs
2: Employer-routed funding for apprenticeships3
3: Expansion of FE loans to 19 year olds & Level 2
4: New earn-or-train options for under 21s on benefit
5: New SFA funding approach borrowed from EFA?
What does this mean for 2015-16
EFA
Funding based on student numbers, funding factors & a £4,000 rate
16-18 bursary and 16-18 free meals likely to roll forward
ILR data (R04 return) very important in setting free meal allocation
SFA
Funding based on apprenticeships and other adult skills
Colleges have two funding pots which aren’t mixed
19+ financial support funds likely to roll forward (less cuts)
24+ loans are the growth area in 2014-15 but this may slow
Student support
Support within the education system at different ages
Universal infant free school meals
In-course support via pupil premium and for those with high needs
Transport support but under pressure post-16
Modest 16-18 sums for bursaries, free meals and care to learn
Modest sums for those in 19+ education
Maintenance grants and loans for full-time higher education
Support within the welfare system at different ages
Child benefit plus income-related benefits for parents
Discussion about withdrawing benefits for under 21s (earn or train)
Treasury’s welfare cap will cause pressure on working-age benefits
Long delayed plan to merge benefits into universal credit
Some concluding thoughts
Thinking about your role
Public spending trends will force changes in colleges
Budgets pressure => review of management, admin & support roles
Students cannot learn or train if they can’t afford to do so
Vital to manage student support budgets carefully
Colleges have a clear role helping students off benefits into work
Data – how do you prove you’re making a difference?
Education and skills matter
Quality counts
Every crisis is an opportunity
Reminders
More information on funding and finance issues here
•http://www.aoc.co.uk/term/funding-finance