Transcript EnergyFuture - University of Miami

America’s Energy Future:
Challenges and Opportunities
Maxine L. Savitz
Ju
December 6, 2010
University of Miami
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Key Forces Shaping U.S. Energy Situation
• Increasing world energy demand stemming from
economic globalization, particularly in developing nations,
and especially China, tightens energy markets.
• U.S. oil imports comprise nearly 60 percent of the U.S. oil
use, up from 40 percent in 1990—alternatives are limited.
• Energy price volatility has been unprecedented in last two
years, continuing to complicate market decisions.
• Long term reliability of traditional energy sources,
especially oil, is uncertain and will continue to be so.
• Mounting concerns about global climate change, largely
from burning fossil fuels that provide most world energy,
are increasingly a significant factor in energy decisions.
• U.S. Energy infrastructure is massive and slowly adapts to
change and vulnerable to natural disasters and terrorism.
2
Total Energy Use Projections for Selected
Countries: 2006 and 2009 Projections
U.S. and China energy use will be the same in 2014
3
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook
Energy Intensity of the U.S. Economy*
Relative to 1970 levels
Energy Efficiency and Economic Structural Change
1.25
Historical
Energy Intensity* (1970=1)
Electricity
Projected
1.00
Total Energy
0.75
Oil
0.50
0.25
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
*Energy consumed per dollar GDP (2000 constant dollars)
Source: Based on EIA, 2006
2020
2030
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July 29, 2009
America’s Energy Future:
Technology Opportunities,
Risks, and Tradeoffs
http://www.nationalacademies.org/energy
October 2008
May 20, 2009
June 15, 2009
December 9, 2009
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Key Objectives of America’s Energy Future (AEF)
“Foundational Study” (Phase 1)
• Provide transparent and authoritative
estimates of the current contributions and
future potential of existing and new energy
supply and demand technologies, impacts
and costs, focusing on the next two decades.
• Resolve conflicting analyses.
To facilitate a productive national policy
dialogue about the nation’s energy future
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Finding 1: Potential for Transformational Change
With a sustained national commitment, the United States
could obtain substantial energy-efficiency
improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated
deployment of existing and emerging energy-supply and
end-use technologies.
2008
2020
“Bucket 1”
2035
“Bucket 2”
2040
2050
“Bucket 3”
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Finding 2: Energy Efficiency Potential
The deployment of existing energy-efficiency
technologies is the nearest-term and lowest-cost option
for moderating our nation’s demand for energy,
especially over the next decade.
2008
2020
2035
2040
2050
15 Percent (15-17 Quads) by 2020
30 Percent (32-35 Quads) by 2030
NOTE: Even greater savings would be
possible with more aggressive policies
and incentives.
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Finding 3: Electricity Supply Options
The United States has many promising options for
obtaining new supplies of electricity and changing its
supply mix during the next two to three decades,
especially if carbon capture and storage (CCS) and
evolutionary nuclear technologies can be deployed at
required scales.
However, the deployment of these new supply
technologies is very likely to result in higher consumer
prices for electricity.
Current 2008
2020
2035
500
0
74
63
95
1100
1200
1800
63
790
Terawatt-hours
Renewables
Coal CCS Retrofits
New Coal CCS
Nuclear Power Uprates
New Nuclear Power Plants
340
2000 ***
800
****
***conventional coal
****existing nuclear
NOTE: Estimates are not additive
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Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation
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Finding 5: Continued Dependence on Oil
Petroleum will continue to be an indispensable
transportation fuel through at least 2035.
EIA Reference Case through 2030
Transportation
Million barrels of gasoline equivalent per day
Million Barrels of Gasoline
Equivalent Per Day
Cellulosic Ethanol
Coal to Liquids with CCS
Coal-and-biomass-to-Liquids
Total Energy
Quadrillion Btu per year
Current 2008
0
0
0
2020
2035
0.5
0
0
Reminder: Estimates are not additive
1.7
3
2.5
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Other Key Findings
• Expansion and modernization of the nation’s
electrical transmission and distribution systems are
urgently needed. (Finding 4)
• Substantial reduction in GHG emissions from the
electricity and transportation sectors achievable
over the next two to three decades through a
portfolio approach. (Finding 6)
• To enable accelerated deployment of new energy
technologies starting 2020, public and private sector
will need to perform extensive RD & D over the next
decade. (Finding 7)
• Barriers can delay or prevent accelerated
deployment; policy and regulatory actions will be
required to overcome the barriers. (Finding 8)
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U.S. Energy Efficiency Potential
(Quadrillions of Btus [quads])
• U.S. energy use (2008): 101 quads
• EIA projected U.S. energy use (2030): 118 quads
• Energy efficiency savings potential: 35 quads
saved
• Net U.S. 2030 energy use: 83 quads
• 35 quads/yr savings potential by 2030, saving
money & energy
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Total U.S. Energy Use by Sector, 2008
Transportation
28%
(28.5 quads)
Residential
Buildings
21%
(22 quads)
Commercial
Buildings
18%
(18.6 quads)
Industry
33%
(33.2 quads)
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U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)
(quads)
U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)
40
Renewables
35
Coal
Natural Gas
30
Petroleum
Through Electricity
25
20
15
10
5
0
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
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U.S. Delivered CO2 by Sector
(Million
Tonnes
CO2)
U.S. Delivered CO2 Emissions by Sector (2007)
2500
Coal
2000
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Through Electricity
1500
1000
500
0
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
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Energy Usage in U.S. Residential & Commercial
Sectors
Growth in Energy Usage in Buildings Could be Reduced 30 Percent from
Projected Increase by 2030 (APS Finding 1)
Source: American Physical Society (2008), U.S. DOE, EERE, Energy Data Book (2007)
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Potential Electricity Savings in Commercial and
Residential Buildings, 2020 and 2030
18
Refrigerator Volume (cubic feet)
U.S. Trends in Refrigerator Appliance Efficiency
1978 CA *
1980 CA *
1987 CA *
1993 NECA *
2001 DOE *
* Standards
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Cost of Conserved Energy:
Residential and Commercial Electricity
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Advanced Technologies Provide for Additional
Energy Efficiency
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solid state lighting
Advanced windows
Integrated cooling systems
Sensors and controls
Low-energy and zero-net energy new homes
Low-energy new commercial buildings
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Recent New DOE Programs Relevant to
Buildings
• ARPA – E
– Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative
Thermo Devices
– Power Electronics
• HUB: Improved Energy Efficient Building
Systems Designs
• Homestar
• Retrofit Ramp-up
• Smart Grid – ARRA Grants
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U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption
by Mode
Source: American Physical Society (2008)
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Energy Price Volatility: An Recent Illustration
24
Fuel Economy of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles and
Trucks (1975-2005)
Class 6 to 8 trucks
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Source: American Physical Society (2008)
Light Duty Vehicles Dominate the U.S. Vehicle
Fleet
Number of
Class of Vehicle Vehicles
(millions)
Light Duty
238 93.3%
Vehicles
Medium &
9
3.5%
Heavy Duty
Motorcycles
8
3.1%
Total
255 100.0%
Type of Vehicle
Cars
Light Trucks
Heavy Trucks
Other Trucks
All
Number of
Vehicles
(millions)
137 53.7%
101 39.6%
7
2.7%
2
0.8%
8
3.1%
255 100.0%
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Relative Fuel Consumption of Future Cars by
Power Train
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Plausible Shares of Advanced Light-Duty
Vehicles in the New Vehicle Market by 2020
and 2035
Plausible LDV Market Share by
Propulsion System
Turbocharged Gasoline SI
Diesels
Gasoline Hybrids
Plug-in Hybrids
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Battery Electric Vehicles
2020
15-25%
6-12%
10-15%
1-3%
0-1%
0-2%
2035
25-35%
10-20%
15-40%
7-15%
3-6%
3-10%
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Fuel Consumption Benefit
The Potential for Energy Efficiency
Improvements in Large Vehicles is Very Large
Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010
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Costs to Achieve Fuel Economy Improvement
Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010
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Total Energy Use in the Industrial Sector (2004)
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Estimated Energy Savings Due to Energy
Efficiency Improvements
(quads)
ENERGY USE IN INDUSTRY
SAVINGS OVER BAU IN 2020(1),(2)
BAU PROJECTION (DOE/EIA
REFERENCE CASE)
INDUSTRY
Petroleum
Refining
Iron & Steel
Cement
Bulk Chemicals
2007
4.09
2020
6.07
2030
7.27
SAVINGS IN 2020(1),(2)
0.77 – 2.81
1.38
0.44
6.85
1.36
0.43
6.08
1.29
0.41
5.60
0.21 – 0.76
0.04 – 0.39
0.30
Pulp & Paper
Total Savings –
All industries
(including those
not shown)
2.15
2.31
2.49
0.53 – 0.85
4.9 – 7.7(3)
14% - 22%
NOTES
(1) Based on a review of studies for specific major energy-using industries, for industrial combined heat and power (CHP), and for industry as a whole.
(2) Savings shown are for cost-effective technologies, defined as those providing an internal rate-of-return of at least 10%.
(3) Includes 0.7 – 2.0 quads from CHP systems.
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Cross-sectoral Technologies to Provide
Additional Savings
•
•
•
•
•
•
Combined heat and power
Materials, nanotechnology
Alternative feedstocks
Steam and process heat
Separation
Sensors and controls
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Barriers to Adopting Energy Efficient
Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Price of energy
Lack of information
Capital availability
Fiscal and regulatory policies
Ownership
Technical risk
Human and psychological factors
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Estimates of Energy Savings from Major
Energy-Efficiency Policies and Programs
Policy or program
CAFÉ vehicle efficiency
standards
Appliance
efficiency
standards
PURPA and other CHP
initiatives
ENERY STAR labeling and
promotion
Building energy codes
Utility and state end-use
efficiency programs
DOE industrial efficiency
programs
Weatherization assistance
program
Federal energy management
program
TOTAL
Electricity
savings
(TWh/yr)
Primary energy
savings
(Quads/yr)
Year
--
4.80
2006
196
2.58
2006
--
1.62
2006
132
--
1.52
1.08
2006
2006
90
1.06
2006
--
0.40
2005
--
0.14
2006
--
0.11
2005
--
13.32
-35
Per Capita Electricity Consumption in
Capita Consumption of Electricity
California, NewPer(not
York,
and
U.S. (1990-2006)
including on-site
generation)
Policies and Programs Can Overcome Barriers
14,000
12,000
United States
8,000
California
6,000
New York
4,000
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $
1975
2005
% change
2,000
US GDP/capita
Cal GSP/capita
16,241
18,760
31,442
33,536
94%
79%
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
0
1960
kWh/person
10,000
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Summary of Overarching Findings
1.
2.
3.
4.
Deployment of energy efficiency technologies is
the nearest term and lowest cost option.
Savings in electricity from buildings could
eliminate the need to add to electricity generation
through 2030.
Barriers to improving energy efficiency are
formidable, need sustained initiative, experience
from states.
Long-lived capital stock and infrastructure can
“lock in” pattern of energy use for decades.
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Recent Relevant Academy Reports
America’s Energy Future
America’s Climate Choices
TRB Special Report 298: Driving and the Built
Environment
Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
www.nationalacademies.org
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Potential for Cost-Effective Annual U.S. Energy
Savings (quadrillions of Btus)
Conservative
Optimistic
2020 2030 2020 2030
Buildings, primary (source) electricity
9.4
14.4
9.4
14.4
Residential
4.4
6.4
4.4
6.4
Commercial
5.0
8.0
5.0
8.0
Buildings, natural gas
Residential
Commercial
2.4
1.5
0.9
3.0
1.5
1.5
2.4
1.5
0.9
3.0
1.5
1.5
Transportation, light duty vehicles
2.0
8.2
2.6
10.7
Industry, manufacturing
4.9
4.9
7.7
7.7
Total
18.6
30.5
22.1
35.8
NOTE: Savings are relative to the reference scenario of the
EIA’s 2008 Annual Energy Outlook or, for transportation, a
similar scenario developed by the panel.
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