Transcript Shell Gas LPG (Pakistan) Limited

Shell Gas LPG (Pakistan)
Limited
Growing Energy Gap
Case 1(Worst
case): 4% GDP
growth
projections
Case II(Best
case): 5.8%
GDP growth
projections
Demand (Million TOEs)
Case – I (worst case)
Case – II (best case)
2009-10
65.99
71.04
2014-15
79.84
94.10
2019-20
98.93
127.02
Deficits (Million TOEs)
Case – I
Case – II
(19.31)
(24.37)
(33.32)
(47.58)
(57.55)
(85.64)
Conversion Rate For TOE to LPG MT =
TOE*1.08
-Forecasts prepared by Petroleum Industry of Pakistan (PIP) for the oil marketing & producing companies
2007
Domestic Packed : Demand
• Number of households = 24 Million
•LPG penetration = 7%
•Current estimated segment volume = 160 Kt/annum
• Impact of increasing
The shaded spots represent
80%+ of current genuine
domestic volume
penetration by 1% : 24K !
(4% Of LPG industry
Approx. 6K POS (FMCG
POS Universe 200K+)
Volume)
• Impact of increasing per
capita consumption by 1
kg/month : 21K !
•Current per month usage = 8 Kg
Coverage : key for
domestic business
development
Commercial Potential
• Current estimated commercial volume is 100K Mt/annum
Main segments include;
Hotels
Bakery
Restaurants
Sweets
Metal cutting
Catering
Available Potential:
•Currently these
applications are
using wood & coal
•To make the
conversions
conservative, 100%
dry coal usage has
been assumed
Application
Estimated LPG Equivalent
Sweets (Khoya & Gur)
800 K Mt
Tobacco Curing
100 K Mt
Social ceremonies (catering
150 K Mt
Rural bakeries, ovens &
30 K Mt
Water Heating
12 K Mt
Total
1,092 Mt
Issues & Challenges
• Cross- Filling
• Decanting
• Pricing caps & Subsidies
• Penetration into rural areas
• Inland freight infrastructure