Transcript Présentation PowerPoint

Interpretation of transport
indicators
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE
24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Outline
1. Global trends
2. Consumption by mode
3. Road consumption by type of vehicle
Global trends: objectives and content

Objectives:
o To analyze consumption trends compared economic growth,
and identify homogeneous periods
o To point out the importance of the different modes
o To analyze road transport energy consumption in relation
with the increase in the stock of cars or road vehicles
o Content
o Transport energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity
(index, 2000= 100)
o Consumption by mode (2 chart pies 2000 et 2010)
o Road energy consumption, GDP and stock of cars (index,
2000= 100))
3
Global trends in transport sector
Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2008 and 2008-2010
Transport intensity defined in relation to the GDP as all sectors contribute to transport
consumption
Energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and transport intensity: Chile
160
150
Indice 2000=100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Consumo Energía Transporte
2005
2006
GDP
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Intensidad Consumo
Medener
4
Transport energy consumption drivers and intensity
Since 2008 transport energy consumption is decreasing although GDP is growing; this
contrasts with the previous period
The ratio transport energy consumption per unit of GDP is decreasing especially since
2008
Trends in energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (Chile)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
2000-2008
Energy consumption
2008-2011
GDP
1990-2011
Transport intensity
Medener
5
Transport consumption by mode : case of Chile
Road is dominant with 80% of total transport energy consumption in 2010
Increasing share of road transport
Significant share for maritime transport but decreasing
Distribution of transport consumption by mode (Chile)
2000
2010
0%
0%
11%
15%
Caminero
9%
Aéreo
9%
Marítimo
Ferroviario
76%
80%
Road transport global trends: case of Chile
Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2004 and
2004-2011  to be used for the rest of the presentation
Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile
180
170
Indice 2000=100
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Consumo Energía Caminero
2005
GDP
2006
2007
2008
2009
Stock de vehículos
2010
2011
Summary analysis of road transport trends by period: case of Chile
Since 2006, the stock of cars is growing faster than the GDP,
The consumption of road transport is increasing twice slower than the
stock of cars.
Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
2000-2004
2004-2011
2000-2011
-2.0%
Consommation du transport routier
PIB
Parc automobile
Medener
8
Outline
1. Global trends
2. Consumption by mode
3. Road consumption by type of vehicle
Consumption by mode: objectives and content

Objectives:
o To analyze energy efficiency trends by mode (road, air)
o To analyze the impact of the change in the composition of
the road vehicles fleet on the average specific consumption
of road transport
o Content:
a. Specific consumption of road transport (per vehicle and per
car equivalent) : in aggregation and by type of fuel
b. Specific consumption of air and rail transport (histograms
2000 and 2010)
c. Specific consumption of road transport per vehicle
10
Consumption of road transport per vehicle
Slight decrease in average specific consumption of road transport per vehicle
Strong decrease for diesel vehicles, partly linked to the dieselisation of light vehicles
and cars (increase share of diesel cars from 1% in 2000 to 11 in 2011)
Trends in specific consumption of road transport : Chile
12
10
Toe/vehículo
8
6
4
2
0
2002
2003
2004
Vehículos a gasolina
2005
2006
2007
Vehículos a diesel
2008
2009
2010
Promedio
2011
Consumption of road transport per vehicle and per car
equivalent to assess overall energy efficiency of road transport
For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road
transport by type of vehicle, the consumption of road transport per vehicle is
not a good indicator of energy efficiency as it may be influenced by a shift in te
composition of the vehicle stock;
For instance, if the share of light vehicles (e.g. motorcycles for gasoline or
cars for diesel increases this will decrease the average consumption per
vehicle all things being equal... and this is not linked to energy efficiency
improvements.
To clean the consumption of road transport per vehicle from this structural
effect, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent
car , the variation of which will be independent on the change in the
composition of the stock of vehicles.
12
Calculation of the average consumption of road transport per
car equivalent
For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road
transport by type of vehicle, calculation of a unit consumption of road
transport per equivalent car
This indicator relates the total consumption of road transport to a fictitious
stock of vehicles, measured in terms of numbers of equivalent cars.
Converting the actual stock of vehicles into a stock of equivalent cars is
based on a coefficient reflecting the difference in the average yearly
consumption between each type of vehicle and a car:
o If, for instance, a motorcycle consumes 0.2 toe/year on average and a
car 1 toe/year, one motorcycle is considered to be equivalent to 0.2 cars.
o In the same way if light vehicles and trucks consume on average 5 toe/
year each vehicle for road transport of goods is equivalent to 5 cars
13
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition
of the vehicle stock: Bolivia
In Bolivia, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing more
rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-6.4%/year compared
to -4.4%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that
contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 2%/year ; the consumption
per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which
can be estimated at 4.4%/year
110
100
energy efficiency indicator
90
80
70
Effect of change in
the composition of
the vehicle stock
60
50
2004
2005
2006
consumption per vehicle
2007
2008
2009
2010
Consumption per car equivalent
14
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition
of the vehicle stock : Chile
In Chile, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing slightly
less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-2%/year compared to 2.3%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to
reduce the consumption per vehicle by 0.3%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent
gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at
2%/year
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
consumption per vehicle
Consumption per car equivalent
15
Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition
of the vehicle stock : Costa Rica
In Costa Rica, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing
less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-0.5%/year compared to
-1.9%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed
to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 1.4%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent
gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at
0.5%/year
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010
consumption per vehicle
Consumption per car equivalent
16
Air transport
The specific energy consumption of air transport remained on average
rather steady until 2008 and decreased rapidly since then;
Trend in this specific consumption is usually negatively correlated with the
traffic (i.e. rapid decrease with a rapid growth in traffic and vice versa)
Specific consumption of air transport and passenger traffic (Chile)
0.16
250
0.14
200
0.12
0.10
150
0.08
100
0.06
0.04
50
0.02
-
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Consumo Específico (Toe/Pax)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Indice Pasajeros (2000=100)
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Consumption by mode
Road consumption by type of vehicle
Indicators of modal shift
Consumption of road transport by type of
vehicle: objectives and content

Objectives:
o To show the weight of different type of vehicles in road
consumption
o To analyze specific energy consumption trends for cars and
trucks
o Contents:
o Specific consumption of cars:
o liter/100 km for new cars
o liter/100 km for cars (average stock of cars)
o Specific consumption of trucks
19
Distribution of road transport energy consumption by
type of vehicle
Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle (country x)
2010
cars
15%1%
light & duty
39%
25%
trucks
Buses
20%
two wheels
Specific consumption of cars (EU average)
8.5
8.0
l/100 km
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
2000
2002
2004
average
2006
2008
new
21
Specific consumption of new cars: Chile
Source: CV (Centro de Control y Certificación Vehicular), de acuerdo al protocolo
internacionalmente aceptado ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation).
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global trends
Consumption by mode
Road consumption by type of vehicle
Indicators of modal shift
Decreasing share of non-road goods traffic in almost all the countries
Increasing share of rail and water for 8 countries since 2000 (Sweden, UK,
Finland, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Greece)
Share of rail and water in total goods traffic
60%
2000
2010
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Mexico
Spain
UK
Netherlands
Germany
EU
Poland
France
Italy
0%
24