Transcript The Impact of EVD on Africa (Draft )

The Social and Economic
Impacts of the Ebola Virus
Disease in Africa
Implications for Africa’s
Integration and Transformation
The need for an assessment
• Meaningful full assessment can only be done
once the outbreak is contained
• The assessment shall
Short
term
• Contribute to the
dissemination of countrybased primary information
on the epidemic and its
implications
• Support ongoing economic
and social planning efforts
that accompany the
current health response
Medium
and long
term
Contribute
to the
preparation
of countries’
policy
responses
for the post
epidemic
recovery
Understanding the Continental
Consequences of the Ebola Outbreak
ECA will position the current Ebola
outbreak in a continental context and
assess the social and economic impact
that it can have on Africa’s integration
and transformation
The purpose is to analyze
prospectively the ripples that the
pandemic can have on productive
sectors, social protection, health
and educational outcomes, beyond
the immediate impact in lives
A Gap Assessment on Knowledge
Study and geographical focus
Dimensions/variables
Methodology
covered
-GDP; -fiscal
World Bank - Economic impact the effect/financing gap; 3 affected countries; short term
inflation; -investment; and medium term study
capital flight; exchange
rate
Ebola led to downward revision of the 2014
Sector components Model
growth of Liberia (from 5.9% to 2.5%), Sierra
which allows experimenting
Leone (from 11.3% to 8%) and Guinea (from
with various scenarios (e.g.
4.5% to 2.4%). The growth prospects for 2015,
low Ebola and high Ebola)
respectively, are -4.9%, 3% and 2%.
UNDP (Sierra Leone / Guinea
Economic and social
impact
WHO (the affected countries; 9
months of Ebola and projection to
November 2014)
Health and health systems
(New England J. of
Forecasting tools
Medicine)
World Association of Universities West Africa
Impact on higher
education
The Economist (Ebola’s economic
impact-September 3)
Health, education, trade
and growth
WFP (Rapid Assessment)- Senegal
CDC (estimating the scale of EVD)
Results
Narrative analysis (Sierra
Leone) of several sectors
Multisectoral Consequences
70.8% fatality rate; If not treated the # of Ebola
cases will be 20,000 in all countries.
Data from various
universities for descriptive
analysis
-negative for the higher education sector;
Knowledge workers are being withdrawn.
-
GDP declines, food shortage, supply of teachers
decreases, decline in savings, investment/capital
accumulation
Trade
Rapid appraisal
50% drop in cross-border trade, fruit and palm
oil no longer available on border markets with
Guinea
Prevalence of EVD
Computational and other
modelling tools
8,000 cases in S. Leone; `16,000 cases in Liberia;
550,000 cases without intervention; 1.4million
by January
FDC (finance derivatives company)- Tourism; Aviation ; Health;
making economic sense of Ebola
Agriculture
Social
Consequences
Decrease on
Health
Outcomes
Incremental
Costs to
Health
Systems
Incremental
Dropouts
Reduced
School
Attendance
Increased
Pressure on
Health
Systems
Intra African and
Intercontinental
Trade
Incremental Costs to
Governments and
Society
Migration
Decrease in
Educational
Outcomes
Economic
Consequences
Africa's Integration
and Transformation
Reduced
Outcomes
on Social
Protection
Household
Income, Food
and Nutrition
Agricultural
Industry
Mining
Knowledge
Transfer /
Meetings
Not tending to
Regular
Pathologies –
malaria,
vaccinations, etc.
Changes in
Production
Patterns
Transport
Trade
Tourism
Changes in
Capital
Flows
Gender
Increased
Morbidity
Increased
Mortality
Increased
Labor
Absenteeism
Changes in
Domestic
Consumption
Patterns
Changes in
International
Consumption
Patterns
Investment
Patterns
Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak
Cohesion
Stigma
Governance
/ Security
Risk
Perceptions
Uncertainty
Methodology -Sector Specific Analysis
with a Holistic Approach
Health
Education
Social
Protection
Labor
Trade
Agriculture
Financial
Flows
Commerce
Gender
Increasing resiliencies from all sectors
• Priority: focusing on the emergency
(current health response) as it will
impact all sectors of the economy
• The need for policy responses in all
affected sectors
Collaboration at Several Levels
Country
UNDP & Other UN Partners
Regional
UNDG
Continental
ECA
Time Line
September
• Establishment of
Interdivisional
TaskForce at ECA
AUC
Summit
January
2015 –
November
• Zero Draft Report
October
December
• Methodological
Development
• Field Mission
• Draft Report
•Presentation
of Initial
Results