Transcript Social Security and Social Protection in Thailand: results of the

Social Security and Social Protection
in Thailand: results of the
Assessment Based National Dialogue
Valerie Schmitt, Social Security
Specialist, ILO DWT Bangkok
Tuesday 13 March
Structure of the presentation
• Definition of the SPF
• Purpose and process of the
Assessment
• From situation analysis to
recommendations
• The costing using the RAP protocol
• Remaining questions…
The SPF is the first step towards higher
levels of social protection
Level of
CSMBS (7% coverage
population)
SSS (15%
population)
NSF for
informal
economy
workers
SSS for
informal
economy
workers
UCS & 500 Baht scheme
Poor
-
Informal economy
-
Form. Sect.
The Social protection floor is not only a set of
measures to provide income replacement
A mechanism to:
• Protect people from poverty
through a guarantee of income
security
• help people meet their basic needs
• & develop individual capabilities
A mechanism
providing protection
against the financial
consequences of risks
(9 contingencies)
In a country with the Social protection floor

All residents have access to essential health care


All children enjoy income security through transfers in
cash or kind  access to nutrition, education and care
All those in active age groups who cannot earn sufficient
income enjoy a minimum income security (transfer in cash
or in kind & employment guarantee schemes)
 All residents in old age and with disabilities have income
security through pensions or transfers in kind
Many elements of the SPF are already here
in Asia Relevance, South South
India: RSBY, NREGA
Cambodia: CARD’s
NSPS with clear
reference to the SPF
… including HEFs,
CBHIs, Food
distribution, PWPs,…
Thailand: UC scheme,
minimum pension
scheme (500 THB)
Indonesia: Jamkesmas,
Jampersal, PKH, Rice
for the poor, PNPM
China: minimum living
standard guarantee
program; new rural
corporative medical care
(NRCMC); health
insurance for urban
uninsured residents
(HIUR); rural old-age
pension
Lao: extension of SHP
for all
Philippines: 4Ps
Vietnam: 10 years
Social security strategy
Structure of the presentation
• Definition of the SPF
• Purpose and process of the
Assessment
• From situation analysis to
recommendations
• The costing using the RAP protocol
• Remaining questions…
The Assessment = is the SPF a reality?
Full achievement of the SPF !!
Still some gaps to reach the SPF…
The assessment tells us
1. What is the
situation?
For each guarantee of the SPF we describe
existing schemes, laws, regulations
2. How far are
we from the
SPF?
We compare what exist with the SPF framework
3. What should
we do to achieve
the SPF?
We draw recommendations and propose new
(or extended) social protection provisions
Has all the population access to health care and income
security? Are the benefits adequate?
The assessment tells us
4. How much will
it cost?
We calculate the cost of the additional SPF
provisions using the RAP protocol and compare
with government budget
Beyond the assessment
5. How to finance
the new SPF
provisions?
We complete the assessment with
recommendations to increase the fiscal space
6. What will be
the return on
investment?
We complete the assessment with an analysis
of the impact of the SPF provisions on poverty
The results can be summarized in the
Assessment matrix
Who conducted the assessment?
SPF-Initiative
17 UN agencies
International NGOs (Help Age)
Governments (France, Luxembourg, etc.)
In Thailand
SPF-Team in
Thailand
Ministries
CSOs
NESDB, MSDHS, MoL,
MoH, MoF, MoE, MoI
Help Age,
Home Net,
SOSOSO
ILO, WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA,
UNWOMEN, UNESCO
LINK WITH UNPAF ON SOCIAL PROTECTION
Academia
HISRO & TDRI
The Assessment has three steps
JUN
JUL
AUG SEP
OCT
NOV DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
STEP 1 – From situation analysis to
recommendations
1.1 Inventory of schemes, gaps, issues
1.2 Provision of Recommendations
STEP 2 - Costing
1
10 August0
A
u
2.1 Translation of recommendations into
“costable” scenarios
2.2 Data collection (I) on POP, ECO, EAP,
parameters for each scenario and projection
of the costs using the RAP protocol
2.3 Preliminary results of the costing
30 November
2.4 Data collection (II) on GGO, ECO and
finalization of the costing
2.4 Recommendations from CSOs
2.5 Validation workshop
23 February
16 March
STEP 3 – Finalization
3.1 Writing assessment report
3.2 Presentation to the Government?
X
Structure of the presentation
• Definition of the SPF
• Purpose and process of the
Assessment
• From situation analysis to
recommendations
• The costing using the RAP protocol
• Remaining questions…
Assessment of Health care
Existing provisions
Main design gaps
Implementation issues
CSMBS (7% population)
Fragmented systems and
laws
Exclusion from UCS (ethnic
minorities, stateless)
because of no ID or lack of
information
Dependents are not
covered by SSS
SSO (15%)
UCS (76%)
Compulsory Migrant Health
Insurance for registered
migrant workers (migrants under
MOU or who have completed the National
Verification Process are entitled to the SSS)
Vertical inequality (same
package UCS-SSS)
Undocumented Migrant
workers are not covered
(they represent 2-3 Mo
or 5% of the workforce)
Inequity in access to
ARTs (CSBMS VS UCS)
Confidentiality/stigma
issues (HIV-AIDS)
Geographic imbalances:
poor availability of HC
supply in some area, idem
for HIV
Exclusion of migrant
workers from SSO because
of non declaration by
employer
Assessment of Health care
The floor is achieved for Health
Care, although implementation
issues remain
Main recommendations:
Future work?
 Reduce fragmentation (the way the system
is organized, financed, regulated)
HISRO/TDRI proposal to
reduce fragmentation, ensure
financial sustainability and
increase the fiscal space
 Ensure financial sustainability of the system
 Introduce news measures such as the
necessity to co-pay for non essential services
 Improve health care supply, HIVsensitiveness of the whole system, Long Term
care (aging society)
Organizational and legal
reviews
Feasibility study on long term
care (ILO-HISRO
collaboration?)
Income security for children
Existing provisions
Main design gaps
Implementation issues
Child allowance introduced in
1998 for formal workers by
Social Security Scheme
Around 5-6 million
children of informal
economy workers do not
receive adequate
assistance – need to
cover e.g. transportation
costs
Some children from migrant
workers and ethnic
communities in remote
areas have limited access to
education
Free education for all (15
years)
Scholarships (civil servants,
poor households, social
activists)
Free school meals and other
support in kind (bicycles…)
Improve services for preschool children
(stimulation of child
development)
Regional disparities in
quality of education, esp. in
rural areas
Leakages / corruption issues
in food distribution
Lack of information limiting
access to services
Income security for children
Need to establish a child
allowance for all children 0-6,
improve quality of education and
care for pre-school children
Main recommendations:
Future work?
 Design and implement a child allowance for
all children 0-3, 0-6 or 0-12 years old
Costing of the Child
allowance using the RAP
protocol (and NESDB
demographic data)
 Add a family benefit under Benefit package
for Article 40
 Provide systematic financial/in kind support
to poor students & children (and not ad hoc)
 Improve the quality of the services
(education, child care, services for mothers
and children)
Feasibility study for the
design and implementation
of the Child allowance once
the idea is endorsed
Income security for working age
Existing provisions
Main design gaps
Implementation issues
Compulsory insurance (art.
33): Sickness, maternity,
invalidity, death, child
allowance, old-age pension
and unemployment under SSF
// work injury under WCF
Fragmented schemes 
increased admin burden
Compliance issues: some
employers collect the
contributions for SSS but do
not register their workers
Voluntary Insurance (art. 39):
Sickness, maternity, invalidity,
death, child allowance and
old-age pension (432 THB/m)
Voluntary Subsidized
Insurance (art. 40- IE workers):
2 packages (i) sickness,
invalidity, death
(ii) Idem + old-age (lump sum)
No portability between
schemes
Some categories of
workers are excluded from
Art 33 (ex. domestic
workers)
Package for informal
economy workers is not
attractive
Migrant workers have to
leave 7 days after
dismissal (no UI) and in
case of disability
Income security for working age
Existing provisions
Main design gaps
500 baths transfer for people
with disabilities from MSDHS
administered at TAO level and
life quality fund (in kind by
providing equipment)
Cumulated with 500
Baht old age allowance
although both aim at the
same purpose (income
replacement in case
people are no longer
able to work)
500 baths transfer for people
with HIV-AIDS from MoL
administered at TAO level
Funeral expenditure (MSDHS)
Ad hoc support
2000 Baths up to 3 times a
year (on demand) implemented by MSDHS
Ad hoc support
TVET
Migrants excluded
Implementation issues
Not adapted to market needs
Income security for working age
Reduce exclusions under Art. 33 and 40 - Reduce social evasion
Social assistance should be more predictable/less ad hoc
Linkages between SP and employability need to be explored
Main recommendations:
Future work?
 Review social assistance schemes in place to
ensure income support to inf. eco. workers
Design combined packages
including income support and
mechanisms to increase
employability and/or access
to markets
 Develop an objective and standardized
poverty and vulnerability assessment system
 Review existing schemes (Art 33 and 40) in
order to cover more people, with more
adequate benefits (e.g. home workers,
domestic workers)
 Explore linkages between social protection
with Employment to ensure graduation
Feasibility studies on
extension of existing schemes
(Art 33 and 40)
Explore the PEOPLE service at
decentralized level
Awareness raising
Income security for elderly
Existing provisions
Main design gaps
Implementation issues
Civil servants - Government
Pension Scheme, Provident
Funds for State Owned enterprises, Private Teacher Aid Fund
No portability across
schemes
Implementation of the
500 THB scheme
politicized at TAO level
Formal sector workers - SSF
Art 40: contribution not
enough to guarantee
income support
Voluntary insurance under Art
39 and Art 40 (package 2 –
lump sum)
Schemes with Lump sum:
income support not
guaranteed
National Savings Fund (MoF)
for Thai Nationals aged 15-60
not benefiting from
government or SSF
No indexation of the social
pension in legislation
Universal Non contributory
500 THB scheme
Difficult contribution to
NSSF (irregular income)
Tax exemption does not
benefit the poorest
Registration under
schemes mainly possible
in BKK and long admin
procedures
Ad hoc community
volunteer care giver
program (MSDHS)
Income security for elderly
Reform 500 THB scheme : increase level of benefits, legislate
Improve coherence and portability between the schemes
Look at Long Term care
Main recommendations:
Future work?
 Increase level of benefits to poverty line (at
least) and index benefits
Feasibility study of long term
care
 Legislate the 500 THB scheme to ensure
predictability
Costing of social pension at
level of food poverty line +
additional benefits
depending on level of
dependency
 Establish long term care system  holistic
care to the elderly
 Create a coherent pension system (&
portability) and look at tax reform to ensure
financial sustainability of the scheme
Take away message
• The Assessment exercise
– Provides a snapshot of what exist for each of the four guarantees
of the SPF
– Identifies gaps and issues for each guarantee
– leads to the formulation of some policy recommendations – what
should we do to improve the situation and complete the social
protection floor?
• To push these recommendations we need to know:
– (1) how much they cost?
– (2) what will be their impact (on poverty, employment…)?
– (3) where we will find the money?
• The RAP protocol can help us answering the first question
(for some simple recommendations – not all of them)
Structure of the presentation
• Definition of the SPF
• Purpose and process of the
Assessment
• From situation analysis to
recommendations
• The costing using the RAP protocol
• Remaining questions…
Assessment matrix
including list of
recommendations
Recommendations = Increase
benefits or population covered,
introduce new benefits
We can use the RAP Protocol
LABOUR MARKET
MODEL
GENERAL
GOVERNMENT
OPERATIONS
MODEL
MACROECONOMIC
MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING
EXERCISE
SUMMARY AND
RESULTS
DEMOGRAPHIC
FRAMEWORK
Qualitative recommendations on
the management of existing
schemes, review targeting &
registration mechanisms, review the
law, conduct research, conduct a tax
reform…
We need to conduct
complementary studies
From recommendations to scenarios
• The recommendation: “Design and implement
cash transfers for all children”
 several scenarios: “Universal child allowance”
Scenario 1: for all children aged 0-3 (THB 400/month)
Scenario 2: for all children aged 0-6 (400 THB/month)
Scenario 3: for all children aged 0-12 (400 THB/month)
Scenario 4: for all children aged 0-6 (500 THB/month)
Scenario 5: for all children aged 0-12 (500 THB/month)
To calculate the cost of the scenario 1Universal allowance for all children aged 0-3 years old
(THB 400/month)
Which information do
we need?
To calculate the cost of the scenario 1Universal allowance for all children aged 0-3 years old
(THB 400/month)
I need:
The number of children 0-3 years old in 2011
and the projected number in 2012… 2020
The % who will be covered in 2012, 2013…
The amount of benefit in 2012 (400
THB/month) and its value in 2013, 2014…
(indexation with inflation)
The % of administrative cost of the child
allowance
To calculate the cost of the scenario 1Universal allowance for all children aged 0-3 years old
(THB 400/month)
Demographic
changes
2012
2013
Number of children 0-3 years old
3,055
3,135
Percentage covered
50%
80%
Amount of benefits (THB/year)
4800
4920
% of Admin costs
5%
5%
Inflation
Total cost
50% * 3,055,000* 4800 * 1.05
To calculate the cost of the scenario 1Universal allowance for all children aged 0-3 years old
(THB 400/month)
Total cost
50% * 3,055,000* 4800 * 1.05
= 7,698 million THB
In % of GDP = 0.07%
In % of Government Expenditure
To calculate the cost of the scenario 1Universal allowance for all children aged 0-3 years old
(THB 400/month)
I know that:
I need the following models:
The number of children
will change
Demographic
projections
Level of the child
allowance (FS) will
change with inflation
Percentage of GDP
and Government
Expenditure
Inflation forecasts
GDP and Government
Expenditures forecasts
1- Data collection
GENERAL
GOVERNMENT
OPERATIONS
MODEL
LABOUR MARKET
MODEL
MACROECONOMIC
MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING
EXERCISE
2- Transformation of
the recommendations
into scenarios
SUMMARY AND
RESULTS
Calculation of the cost in 2011 of each scenario,
Projection over the years of this cost, in THB,
% Govt expenditure and % GDP
DEMOGRAPHIC
FRAMEWORK
Scenarios and results – Children
Scenario 1: for all children aged 0-3 (THB 400/month)
allowance
allTHB/month)
children
Scenario 2:Universal
for all children
aged 0-6for
(400
Scenario 3: for all children aged 0-12 (400 THB/month)
Scenario
1: aged
(THB 400/month)
= 0.09%
GDP in 2020
Scenario
4: for0-3
all children
aged 0-6 (500
THB/month)
Scenario
2: aged
(400 THB/month)
0.16%
GDP in 2020
Scenario
5: for0-6
all children
aged 0-12=(500
THB/month)
Scenario 3: aged 0-12 (400 THB/month)
Scenario 4: aged 0-6 (500 THB/month)
Scenario 5: aged 0-12 (500 THB/month)
Between 0.09% and 0.36% of GDP in 2020
Scenarios and results – Maternity
benefit for female IE workers
• A maternity benefit to compensate for the loss
of income immediately after delivery. Lump
sum payment of 4,500 THB paid upon
delivery.
Which information do
we need?
Scenarios and results – Maternity
benefit for female IE workers
• A maternity benefit to compensate for the loss
of income immediately after delivery. Lump
sum payment of 4,500 THB paid upon
delivery.
Number of births from IE workers
Percentage covered (50% the first year…)
Amount of benefits (THB/year)
% of Admin costs
Scenarios and results – Maternity
benefit for female IE workers
Only 0.01% of GDP in 2020
The other scenarios
• For the elderly, benefit to compensate for the
loss of income after 60 years old, including a
“Long term care” component:
– 600 THB/month for 60-69 years old
– 700 THB/month for 70-79 years old
– 800 THB/month for 80-89 years old
– 1,000 THB/month for 90 years and over
The other scenarios
• For the working age, several schemes to
compensate for the loss of income in case of
sickness or disability:
– 200 THB/day in case of sickness (similar to Article
40 for informal economy workers)
– 1,000 THB/month in case of severe disability
(higher than existing scheme of 500 THB/month)
The other scenarios
• For the working age, a number of anti-poverty
and training programs :
AntiIncreasing productivity component
poverty
Pre and
Lower
Upper
Vocational Higher
component primary
secondary secondary training
education
school
school
school
Poor
200
baht/day
Non Poor N/A
20 days
20 days
20 days
10 days
N/A
20 days
20 days
20 days
10 days
One training per five years (20% per year)
Cost of training = 550 THB/person/day
N/A
Estimated cost of achieving the SPF
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Child benefit-Scenario Min
Universal pension 500BHT
Disability allowance
Maternity allowance
Working Age
Total in % of GDP
Total in % of Govt Revenues
1,591
43,162
218
740
50,442
0.8%
6%
1,972
47,321
228
1,239
50,877
0.8%
6%
2,353
51,880
240
1,618
51,219
0.8%
7%
3,126
56,855
250
1,687
51,516
0.7%
7%
7,865
69,836
307
2,073
52,867
0.6%
4%
Child benefit-Scenario Max
Universal pension-ladder with
indexation
Disability allowance
34,324
55,085
70,014
70,932
77,625
59,182
218
66,584
228
74,889
240
84,375
250
118,813
307
Maternity allowance
Working Age
Total in % of GDP
Total in % of Govt Revenues
740
50,442
0.9%
7%
1,239
50,877
0.9%
7%
1,618
51,219
0.9%
8%
1,687
51,516
0.9%
8%
2,073
52,867
0.8%
6%
Take away message
• The RAP gives a first idea of “how much it would
cost” to complete the SPF
• It tells us whether this is affordable or not
• It helps to decide whether or not we should
implement the proposed scheme
• It can be completed with poverty impact analysis,
and analysis of the impact on employment of some
of the measures for working age population
• It needs to be completed by comprehensive
feasibility studies and fiscal space analysis
Structure of the presentation
• Definition of the SPF
• Purpose and process of the
Assessment
• From situation analysis to
recommendations
• The costing using the RAP protocol
• Remaining questions…
Remaining questions
• How to finance? Additional taxes?
– A question for the Fiscal policy office of the Ministry of
Finance… but also for the national commissions…
• What will be the return on investment?
– Impact on poverty reduction, reduction of inequalities,
social inclusion, access to employment, increase in
productivity
• How to move forward?
– Role of national commissions (House of Senate and
Parliament)??
• How to implement these measures?
– Role of the civil society, the local administration at TAMBON
level, the committees at local level in the implementation
and oversight of the extension of the SPF?
Remaining questions
Reducing costs by sharing admin
functions & information
MoH
MoE
MoL
Reducing fragmentation with a
single entry point
MoI
…
Monitoring the extension of SP
coverage at central level and
assessing the impact
Case management= providing
adapted services/benefits
Representing the interests of the
beneficiaries, ensuring that the
SPF is a reality
Offering combined benefit
packages with a bigger impact on
poverty reduction (e.g. access to
health, training, etc.)
Committees?
Local administration?
CSOs?
MSD
HS