Transcript L14-MundellFlemingFi..

The Mundell-Fleming Model
How international capital mobility alters
the effects of macroeconomic policy
Lecture 14:
Mundell-Fleming model with a fixed exchange rate
• Fiscal expansion
• Monetary expansion
• Automatic mechanisms of adjustment
Lecture 15: Mechanisms of Adjustment
Lecture 16:
Mundell-Fleming model with a floating exchange rate
Lecture 17:
Mundell-Fleming model with perfect capital mobility
The Mundell-Fleming equations with a fixed exchange rate
IS: Y =
𝐴 − 𝑏𝑖 + 𝑋−𝑀
𝑠+𝑚
LM:
IS
𝑀1
=
𝑃
L(i, Y)
LM
i
Y
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
The Mundell-Fleming equations with a fixed exchange rate, continued
IS
LM
BP=0
i
Y
BP = TB + KA
New addition: capital flows
respond to interest rate differential
TB = 𝑋−𝑀 − mY
BP=0:
KA = 𝐾𝐴 + κ (𝑖−𝑖 ∗)
𝑋- 𝑀 − mY + 𝐾𝐴 + κ 𝑖−𝑖 ∗ = 0
Solve for interest differential:
(i-i*) =
.
1
( )(−𝐾𝐴
κ
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
−𝑋−𝑀) +
𝑚
( )Y
κ
(i-i*) =
.
BP=0:
1
( )(−𝐾𝐴
κ
−𝑋−𝑀) +
𝑚
( )Y
κ
The slope is (m/𝜿).
κ=0
i
𝜿>0
i
BP=0
𝜿 >> 0
i
BP=0
BP=0
Y
Y
Y
Capital mobility gives some slope to the BP=0 line:.
A rise in income and the trade deficit is consistent with BP=0 …
if higher interest rates attract a big enough capital inflow.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
κ=0
𝜿>0
BP=0
BP=0
•
•
Experiment: Fiscal expansion.
𝜿 >> 0
BP=0
•
The capital inflow is either
less than enough to give a surplus in the overall balance of payments,
or more than enough, depending on the degree of capital mobility.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
𝜿 low
𝜿 high
•
•
Example: France 1981.
The Mitterrand fiscal expansion
did not attract enough capital
inflow to finance fully the TD.
Example: Germany, 1990-91.
The Unification fiscal expansion
attracted more than enough
capital inflow to finance TD.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
κ=0
𝜿>0
𝜿 >> 0
•
•
•
Experiment: Monetary expansion
A capital outflow
=>TB ↓
adds to BoP deficit.
The overall balance of payments deficit is bigger, the bigger is k.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
Automatic mechanisms of adjustment
1. Money supply (via reserve flows)
2. Exchange rate (via demand for currency)
3. Price level (via excess demand for goods)
4. Indebtedness
(via current account or budget deficit)
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
1st automatic mechanism
of adjustment: Reserve flows
(MABP)
k low
k high
•
•
If outflow is sterilized, economy remains at point M.
If unsterilized, money flows out – – faster and faster as k is higher.
≡ “Offset” to monetary expansion.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
A 2nd automatic mechanism of adjustment:
Floating exchange rate
• If, at a given exchange rate, a country would have a BoP
deficit, then under floating the currency depreciates.
– Enhanced competitiveness shifts the IS & BP=0 curves right.
– Equilibrium occurs at:
• a higher level of Y.
• BP=0.
• If, at a given exchange rate, a country would have a BoP
surplus, then under floating the currency appreciates.
– Uncompetitiveness shifts both the IS & BP=0 curves left.
– Equilibrium occurs at:
• a lower level of Y.
• BP=0.
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
Appendix: Causes of Developing Country BoP Surpluses
2003-08 & 2010-12
• Strong economic performance (especially China & India)
-- IS shifts right.
• Easy monetary policy in US and other
major industrialized countries (low i*)
-- BP shifts down.
• Big boom in mineral & agricultural commodities
(esp. Africa & Latin America)
-- BP shifts right.
Causes of BoP Surpluses in Developing Countries
1990-97,
2003-07 &
2010-12
I.
“Pull” Factors (internal causes)
1. Monetary stabilization
=> LM shifts up
2. Removal of capital controls => κ rises
3. Spending boom
=> IS shifts out/up
II.
“Push” Factors (external causes)
1.
Low interest rates in rich countries
=> i* down =>
2.
Boom in export markets =>
•
}
BP
shifts
down
/out
A country at point B
has a BoP surplus.
•
Alternative ways
of managing
capital inflows:
A. Allow money to flow in
(can be inflationary)
B. Sterilized intervention
(can be difficult)
C. Allow currency to appreciate (lose competitiveness)
D. Reimpose capital controls
(can impede efficiency)
ITF 220 Prof.J.Frankel
(Each
way
has a
drawback.)