Transcript Politics of the Middle East

Politics of the Middle East
Iran
People
• Iran is home to one of the world's oldest
continuous major civilizations, with historical
settlements from 4000 BC
• Population 75 Million
• Half the population under 35
• 61% Persian, majority
• Shi’ite Muslim 89%
Economy
• 10 % World oil reserves 15% gas
• Ranked 1st in scientific growth
• agriculture (10%), oil (25%), industry (20%),
services (45%)
• GDP per capita $7,207 (76th)
• Unemployment 11%
Late History
• During WWI occupied by British, Russians and Ottomans
• Following the Russian Revolution Britain attempted to
establish a protectorate, Failed
• 1925 Pahlavi Dynasty; Nationalism, Secularism,
Westernisation
• 1941 Anglo Soviet Invasion
• 1946 Soviets withdraw, promises of oil concessions.
• Conditions revoked, and Soviet puppet state
overthrown
• 1947 – 1951 Six different Prime Ministers
• 1951 Prime Minister Mohammed
Mosaddeq elected
• 1953 Operation Ajax Deposed Mossadeq
• Ruled as an autocracy with US support
from that time.
• White Revolution, Land Reform
• 1979 Iranian Revolution
• Muhomed Reza Shah overthrown
1979 Islamic Revolution
• Khomeini returned on 1 February 1979
• transformed from an absolute
monarchy, to an Islamic republic
• Pahlavi left the country for exile in
January 1979
• velayat-e faqih, the idea advanced by
Khomeini that everyone requires
"guardianship", in the form of rule or
supervision by the leading Islamic jurist
• Hostage Crisis 1979 – 1981, 444 Days
Iran Iraq War 1980 - 1988
• Iraq made early advances in 1982.
• Khomeini sought to export his Islamic
revolution westward into Iraq, especially on
the majority Shi'a Arabs.
• War continued until 1988. Khomeini "drank
the cup of poison" and accepted the UN truce
• 100,000 Iranian victims of chemical weapons
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Government
• Theocratic Presidential Democracy
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Supreme Leader
Assembly of Experts
Guardian Council
President
Parliament
Expediency Council
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President
Elected for 4 Years by universal
suffrage
Appoints Ministers 21 and Vice
Presidents 10
Drafts laws to be approved by
Parliament, Approves laws
drafted by Parliament
Does not control the military
Candidates Approved by
Guardian Council
6000 applications for 2013
election
Parliament (Majlis-e shoura-ye eslami)
• 290 members elected to 4 year terms.
• draft legislation, ratify treaties, approve national
budget.
• candidates and all legislation from the assembly
must be approved by the Guardian Council.
Guardian Council
(Shora-ye Negahban-e Qanun-e Assassi)
• 12 jurists, 6 clerics appointed by Supreme Leader,
6 elected by the Parliament
• interprets the constitution, rejects bills
incompatible with the constitution or Sharia
• approves candidates for national election
Expediency Council
• mediates disputes between Parliament and the
Guardian Council
• Consists of the heads of the three government
branches, clerical members of the Guardian Council
and other members appointed by the supreme
leader for three-year terms
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Assembly of Experts
88 ‘virtuous and learned’ clerics
Elected to 8 year terms
Candidates must pass a written examination
administered by the Guardian Council
Meet twice annually
Appoint and remove the Supreme Leader
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Supreme Leader
There have been only two; Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
and Ali Khamenei
Appointed and supervised by the Assembly of Experts
Head of State with powers over defence
and religious affairs
Veto legislation
Declare War and Peace
with 2/3 approval of Parliament
Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic
Revolution
• Protect the Revolution and assist the
ruling clerics in the enforcement of the
new government's Islamic codes and
morality
• Preventing foreign intervention,
military coupe, border security
• 125K guards 90K Basiji militia
• Quds Force, special forces
unconventional warfare roles providing
assistance and training to various
organizations around the world
Modern History
• 1989 On his deathbed Khomeini appointed a 25-man
Constitutional Reform Council which named Ali
Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader
• Rafsanjani served two 4 year terms focused efforts
on rebuilding Iran's economy, cut military spending
and normalized relations with neighbors
• Neutral during Gulf War I
• 1997 Mohammad Khatami. His presidency was
defined by tensions between the reformgovernment and a conservative active clergy.
• re-elected 2001
• ‘Dialogue of Civilizations’
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
• Elected 2005 62% of the vote
• 2009 Disputed elections
• Street Protests, Mir-Hossein Mousavi
and his supporters alleged voting
irregularities
• Hassan Rouhani elected 3 August
2013
Nuclear Negotiations
• P5 + 1 China, Russia, US, UK, France, Germany
• Points of contention
– Stockpiling
– Sanctions,
– Enrichment
– Resistance from US Congress
Foreign Relations
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Iran’s role in Iraq and the fight against IS
Proxy conflicts in the Region, Yemen
Partnership with Russia
Afghanistan/ Pakistan
Regional hegemony?