Transcript PPT - United Nations Statistics Division

Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
The Use of Indicators on Deficit and
Debt
9th Meeting of the Advisory Expert Group on National Accounts
September 8–10, 2014, Washington D.C.
Claudia Dziobek, Chief - IMF Government Finance Division
Tuesday, September 9, 2014 (Afternoon Session-Item 14)
Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source.
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Overview
 GFS and National Accounts
 Availability of International Guidelines for Debt Data



Compilation
Sources of Differences in Debt Data
A Cascading Approach to Presenting Debt Data
Way Forward
2
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
GFS and National Accounts
 GFSM 2014 aligned with 2008 SNA
 Government a major sector
 GFSM 2014 framework requires additional information
to NA data for more detailed fiscal analysis e.g.,
•
•
•
Different aggregates (revenue, expense, expenditure)
Detailed breakdown of taxes, subsidies, other government
revenue
Consolidation
 IMF GFS questionnaire seeks more detailed information
than that available from NA compilation.
3
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
GFS and National Accounts
 GFSM Framework has four alternative measures of the
deficit / surplus:
•
•
•
•
Net/gross operating balance
Net lending/net borrowing (NLB)
Cash surplus/deficit
Total financing
 Other surplus / deficit indicators are also widely used e.g.
• Primary balance (or primary surplus / deficit)
• Structural / cyclical balances
 All these indicators provide an indication of the in-year
fiscal position.
4
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
GFS and National Accounts
 Government gross debt a key fiscal indicator:
• Defined as a subset of total government liabilities – six debt
instruments






Debt securities
Loans
Currency and deposits
SDRs
Other accounts payable
Insurance, pension and standardized guarantee schemes
 For debt statistics, analytical need for debt at different
valuations (not just market values)
5
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Availability of International Guidelines
for Debt Data Compilation
 International guidelines for compiling debt well
established:
•
•
•
Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014;
Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users;
and
External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users
(EDSG), 2011.
 In practice, differences in debt data limit cross country
comparability
6
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Sources of Differences in Debt Data
 Differences arising from:
•
•
Institutional sector coverage – central government? general
government? public sector? other?
Debt instrument coverage – just debt securities and loans, or
wider coverage of debt instruments?
•
Valuation – market, nominal, or face value
•
Consolidation - consolidated or unconsolidated debt?
7
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Sources of Differences in Debt Data
Institutional Sector Coverage
Includes State
and Local
Canada’s
Gross Debt by Sector (in percent of GDP)
Gross Debt in Canada by Sector
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
General Government
Public Sector
139%
106%
Central Government
Public Nonfinancial Corporation
49%
Public Financial Corporation
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
5q 96q 97q 98q 99q 00q 01q 02q 03q 04q 05q 06q 07q 08q 09q 10q 11q 12q
9
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
quarter
Source=World Bank/IMF /OECD Quarterly Public Sector Debt Statistics Database
8
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Sources of Differences in Debt Data
Debt Instrument Coverage
Australia: Debt Instruments (in percent of GDP)
Note magnitude of
Pension Liabilities
Source = Government
Finance Statistics
Yearbook (GFSY)
9
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Cascading Approach to Presenting
Government Debt Data
Levels of Government
Aggregations of Debt Instruments
 GL1 – Budgetary Central
 D1 – debt securities and loans
 D2 – D1 plus SDRs and currency
Government
 GL2 – GL1 plus extrabudgetary
units and social security funds
 GL3 – GL2 plus state and local
governments
 GL4 – GL3 plus nonfinancial public
corporations
and deposits
 D3 – D2 plus other accounts
payable
 D4 – D3 plus insurance, pensions
and standardized guarantee
schemes
 GL5 – GL4 plus financial public
corporations
10
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Cascading Approach to Presenting
Government Debt Data
Financial public corporations
Nonfinancial public corporations
Local governments
State governments
GL4
GL3
Social security funds
Extra-budgetary units
GL2
GL1
IPSGS**
Accts payable
Currency and dep.
Debt sec.
Loans
SDRs*
Budgetary central government
GL5
D1
D2
D3
D4
Addition of debt instruments
* Special Drawing Rights
** Insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes
11
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Country Examples:
China P.R. Hong Kong
China PR - HK
2012
GL3 Consolidated
General
Government
D1
4.0
D2
4.0
D3
6.7
D4
41.4
Very low levels of debt in D1-D3 – most
debt is employment related pensions for
civil servants
12
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Country Examples: Iceland
Iceland
2012
GL1 Budgetary
Central
Government
GL2 Consolidated
Central
Government
GL3 Consolidated
General
Government
D1
88.7
88.7
97.0
D2
88.7
88.7
97.0
D3
93.8
93.8
105.2
D4
117.5
117.5
131.9
Major increase in Icelandic debt is from D3 to
D4 at all levels of government
GL3/D3 = 105 percent of GDP
GL3 / D4 = 132 percent of GDP
13
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Country Examples: USA
GL2 Consolidated
Central
Government
USA
2012
GL3 Consolidated
General
Government
D1
79.1
94.2
D2
79.6
94.7
D3
81.0
100.7
D4
93.8
122.5
Some debt securities
issuance by State and
Local Governments –
emphasizes
importance of general
government data
D1/GL1 is 79 percent of GDP.
D4 /GL3 is 122 percent of GDP
14
Government Finance Division
IMF Statistics Department
Way Forward
 The IMF is adopting the cascading approach in the
recently updated questionnaire to collect data from
member countries for publication in the 2014 GFSY
•
Countries or regions are also allowed to disseminate a debt
aggregate using their national definitions of debt
 The same approach is adopted for the presentation of
government/public sector debt data in the World
Bank/IMF/OECD Public Sector Debt Statistics database
15