Transcript PowerPoint

review of recent opportunities and challenges in
developing and deploying the ultra low-cost handset
Bruxelles, December 6, 2005
€valuating the cost of the handset
and mobile telephony as a barrier to
uptake
[email protected]
market, economics and finance unit (mef)
telecommunication development bureau
ITU
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership
ITU
o founded in 1865
o an impartial, international organization that helps
governments and the private sector to work
together to coordinate the operation of
telecommunication networks and services, and to
advance the development of communications
technology
o 189 member states and over 600 (primarily
private) sector members
helping the world to communicate
o as a United Nations agency, the ITU has an
obligation to produce statistics covering its sector.
This is in line with other specialized agencies that
publish statistics covering their respective field of
operations. This forms part of the global
statistical system of the UN.
o inside ITU, it has been called upon “…to survey
countries and produce world and regional
reports, in particular on…world
telecommunication developments.”
data collection
how?
o two Telecommunication
Indicator Questionnaires
per year addressed to
government agencies in
charge of ICT/telecom, or
operator
o online research
o annual reports
what?
o telephone network
o mobile services
o traffic/tariff
o quality of service/staff
o revenues & investment
o broadcasting
o information technology
• pc
• internet subscribers/users
• broadband/bandwidth
data is entered into the World Telecommunication Indicators Database
beyond statistics
• world telecommunication development report
• regional reports on ict/telecom developments
• case studies (www.itu.int/ict/cs)
mobile boom
Annual average growth rate in mobile subscribers,
1999-2004
Telephone subscribers, world, millions
2'000
72.9
1'800
1'600
60.4
Fixed
1'400
55.5
Mobile
1'200
58.5
62
56.7
58.9
Mobile subscribers as % of total
telephone subscribers, 2004
1'000
34.4
800
28.9
600
20.5
400
22.8
25.9
200
0
1982 84
source: itu
86
88
90
92
94
96
98 2000 02
04
Oceania Americas
World
Europe
Asia
Africa
mobile creates digital opportunities
Telephone (fixed and mobile) subscribers in Nigeria,
(000s)
Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 2004
Europe
71.3
Oceania
Mobile
Fixed
Total density
Mobile density
62.38
8
7.2
42.46
Americas
3.3
World
27.43
Asia
Africa
source: itu
18.58
8.97
1.9
0.5
0
0.5
0
0.7
1.3
0.2
1'608
9'147
2.6
3'149
473
553
600
702
853
1'028
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
the least wired continent on earth..
Telephone subscribers in Djibouti, 2001/2002
16'000
14'000
Mobile passes fixed 9 months after
launch of GSM network
100
90
80
12'000
70
10'000
60
50
8'000
6'000
Mobile
Fixed
4'000
Mobile population coverage and
penetration, 2004
2'000
90
80
Mobile population coverage (%)
Mobile penetration (%)
source: itu
2.02
4.02
6.02
8.02
10.02
12.02
70
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
10
20
10
0
0
12.01
100
0
Cambod. South Sudan Togo
Af.
Iran
Tunisia Chile Banglad.
fixed to mobile substitution
o cutting the cord
o going straight to mobile
Global growth rates, in % per year
70%
60%
50%
40%
Fixed lines
30%
Mobile
20%
10%
0%
93 94 95
source: itu
96 97 98 99 2000 01
02 03 04
reasons for mobile boom
• regulatory
• competition
• privatization
• technical – easier to roll-out than fixed line network
• cost
• decreasing mobile tariffs
• pre-paid / no monthly subscription
privatization & competiton
Percentage of countries with partly or fully
private incumbents, by region, 2004
Arab States
Mobile market structure in Africa, number of countries
No network
43%
27
Africa
42%
39
21
14
10
10
6
5
14
3
2
13
13
14
39
40
41
22
36
No competition
Asia-Pacific
53%
27
Americas
source: itu
16
77%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
32
25
36
24
74%
Europe&CIS
32
100%
93
27
17
20
4
7
9
2
94
95
96
97
Competition
13
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
cost of mobile
Cost for one minute call on mobile network,
US$
3
Africa
2.5
UK
Nigeria
Senegal
1.5
87
Europe
US
2
62
World
46
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
1
Oceania
India
Indonesia
0.5
Asia
Brazil
0
2003
source: itu
Prepaid mobile subscribers as % of total subscribers,
2004
2005
Americas
48
31
45
the potential of ULCH
o million € ?: will low-cost handsets bring more
growth, help bridge the divide and bring more &
better business?
o a number of reasons to believe so…
mobile has fewer barriers
o the most important
barriers to higher ict
(telephone, internet etc)
levels are
• infrastructure
• skills/education
• cost
What prevents you making phone calls
from your mobile?
Botswana
100
Zambia
Uganda
80
60
40
20
0
Cameroon
Ethiopia
Cost of calls
T anzania
South Africa
Namibia
Rwanda
source: researchICTafrica.net
People I
want to call
have no
phone
Nothing
here’s some good news for operators &
manufacturers
o e-access study
o people are prepared to
pay relatively high price
for mobile telephony
o perhaps...
• benefits of mobile phone
compensates for cost
• gdp per capita is not the
perfect proxy to determine
income levels and potential
number of customers
14%
GDP per capita and spending on
telecommunications
12%
As a perc entage of
inc ome (US$ PPP)
10%
Monthly GDP per
c apita (US$ PPP)
8%
900
800
12%
700
600
8%
500
6%
400
6%
4%
4%
300
4%
4%
2%
200
100
0%
0
Botswana Ethiopia
Namibia Rwanda
source: researchICTafrica.net
South
Afric a
Uganda
other findings from the study
Average time to reach the next phone from
the house on foot, in minutes, Namibia,
2004
70
60
50
40
30
Do you share your mobile phone? Rwanda,
2004
Regular
80
Occasional
70
50
Telecentre
40
Private telephone kiosks
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Major town
Never
60
Public payphone
Other urban
source: researchICTafrica.net
Rural
Work
colleagues
Nieghbours
Friends
Family
findings highlight
Do you make and receive calls or just
receive calls, Rwanda, 2004
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Make and rec eive
Rec eive only
Make only
30
20
10
0
Major towns
Other urban
source: researchICTafrica.net
Rural
o the demand side for
mobile phones is very
high
o there is little user
information on handsets
and how much (lowincome) users are
prepared to pay
how many are still without a mobile?
Note:
= 100 million mobile subscribers,
= 100 million people that are not (yet) mobile subscribers
evaluating demand and supply side
benefits: cooperation for information
o the users’ point of view: evaluating the need & potential
for mobile phones
• household ict surveys that include questions to identify
needs/barriers
o the suppliers’ point of view: handset manufacturers and
operators
• need to evaluate lowest possible cost (limit of profitability) based
on subscriber numbers and ARPU
• distribution/re-selling mechanisms
• provide free/subsidized handsets
• create local businesses (micro-credits etc)
• increase « value » of mobile phone
• applications, services and distribution mechanisms that
address local needs