Transcript English

Expanding the coverage of the
Trade in Value Added database
for Africa
[email protected]
AGNA Meeting
20-22 April 2016, Addis Ababa
Overview
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•
•
•
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Challenges of global production
What is TiVA?
What does TiVA tell us?
How is TiVA created?
Formal OECD/ECA cooperation
2
Statistical Challenges of global production
The Apple iPod = 299$ of Chinese
‘exports’ to US
What does this mean?
Decomposition
of gross
exports
Final
consumption
Final
assembly
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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6
5
4
3
2
1
5
1
4
2
Trade in
inputs (first
tier suppliers)
3
Value added
by second
tier suppliers
Value added
by first tier
suppliers
Value added
in the
country of
final
production
6
Trade in inputs
(second tier
suppliers)
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Of which
– 75$ profit to US (Apple)
– 73$ whls/retail US (Apple)
– 75$ to Japan (Toshiba)
– 60$ 400 parts from Asia
– 15$ 16 parts from the US
– 2$ assembly by China
http://blogs.computerworld.com/node/5724
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Gross exports ≠ value-added
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Bilateral trade balances can differ
significantly – who really trades
with who?
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Imports for exports
3
What is TiVA?
TiVA: Trade in Value Added
An approach to measuring the value that is
added by each country in the value-chain
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What does TiVA tell us?
70
Imports matter: Foreign content of exports, 2011, %, total economy
60
50
40
30
20
SAU
BRN
COL
ROW
BRA
IDN
RUS
ARG
AUS
JPN
USA
NZL
NOR
ZAF
NLD
HRV
CHL
HKG
CYP
CHE
GBR
CAN
PHL
LTU
IND
ROU
GRC
FRA
ISR
DEU
TUR
ITA
ESP
AUT
CRI
LVA
SWE
MEX
CHN
POL
TUN
DNK
PRT
ISL
BEL
FIN
EST
SVN
VNM
KHM
MLT
THA
BGR
MYS
KOR
SGP
TWN
IRL
CZE
SVK
HUN
LUX
10
0
As do services: services content of manufacturing, all countries,
2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Wholesale, retail & hotels
Transport & telecoms
Finance & insurance
Business services
Other services
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What does TiVA tell us?
Highlighting interconnectedness: China’s consumers have driven export growth in recent
years... What impact will a slowdown have on OECD growth?
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
TUR
ARG
MEX
IND
ITA
RUS
GBR
FRA
USA
CAN
DEU
SAU
IDN
BRA
ZAF
KOR
AUS
JPN
Share of increase in total exports in VA terms driven by increased final demand from China, 2005-2011
Share of total exports in VA terms for Chinese final demand 2011
45%
40%
US Value-Added Share of foreign content in Mexico's exports 2011, %,
the feedback loop
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
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Who trades with who?
Japan’s trade balances
Thousands
Gross Trade Balance
40
Value Added Trade Balance
x bln US$
30
20
10
0
Remember the
iPod?
-10
-20
Rest of the Australia Indonesia Russian United Germany Canada
World
federation Kingdom
India
Korea
China
United
States
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The current TiVA database
61 economies + RoW, 1995-2011, 34 industries, http://oe.cd/icio-fr or http://oe.cd/tiva
OECD
BRIICS
Other EU28
Other G20
Other South
Eastern Asia
Other Eastern Asia
Other
All OECD 34 countries
Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian
Federation, South Africa
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania,
Malta, Romania
Argentina, Saudi Arabia
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam
Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong China
Columbia, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Rest of the
World
But expansion is needed particularly for Africa
TiVA industries
IO Industries
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
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10
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12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
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ISIC Rev.3
01t05
10t14
15t16
17t19
20
21t22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30,32,33
31
34
35
36t37
40t41
45
50t52
55
60t63
64
65t67
70
71
72
73, 74
75
80
85
90t93
95
Industry
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Food products, beverages and tobacco
Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear
Wood and products of wood and cork
Pulp, paper, paper products, printing and publishing
Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
Chemicals and chemical products
Rubber and plastics products
Other non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals
Fabricated metal products except machinery and equipment
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Computer, electronic and optical products
Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
Other transport equipment
Manufacturing n.e.c; recycling
Electricity, gas and water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; repairs
Hotels and restaurants
Transport and storage
Post and telecommunications
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery and equipment
Computer and related activities
Other Business Activities (incl. R&D)
Public admin. and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Health and social work
Other community, social and personal services
Private households with employed persons
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How is TiVA created?
Connecting national SUTs into national Input Output
tables into an Inter Country Input Output (ICIO) table
Sector 1
Country A
Sector 2 Sector 3
Sector 1
Country B
Sector 2 Sector 3
Sector 1
Country C
Sector 2 Sector 3
Final Demand
Country A Country B Country C
Country A
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Country B
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Country C
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Taxes less subsidies on products
Cif-fob adjustments
Value added
Labour compensation
Operating surplus
Taxes less subsidies on production
Output
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National building blocks for TiVA
National
Supply
Use
Tables
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International cooperation
• OECD working with global partners to expand TiVA coverage and
provide permanent public-good for policy makers and
statisticians
• Proposal for formal OECD/ECA cooperation:
– Phase I – countries are asked to send all current SUTs or IOTs (and
structural business statistics) to ECA for onward transmission to OECD
– Phase II - OECD to harmonise national data and provide
feedback/guidance to countries
– Phase III - National Action plans (and leveraging on OECD
partnerships, submitted to donors for funding) to develop capacity
– Phase IV – integration of national tables into OECD TiVA, and ongoing permanent cooperation
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Creating spill-overs and synergies
• OECD already engaging with countries to
create SUTs best adapted to national (data)
circumstances, with a view to delivering best
quality estimates of coherent GDP.
– Capitalising on all available data sources,
including in particular micro-data linking.
• One important dimension of this strategy for
Africa is likely to be on the ‘informal’
economy, where the OECD has longstanding expertise.
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Thank you for your attention, merci!
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Pourqoi est-ce important pour l’Afrique
Pays à faible revenu exports et imports, Mld USD
Peu d'intégration via les
importations intermédiaires et
des exportations relativement
bas de gamme,
2000-2013
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