Transcript 29th September 2006 Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain

Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Making Better Decisions in an
Uncertain World
Ted Gordon
Millennium Project
American Council for the United Nations University
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
FTA and Decisions
Premise: Improving FTA will improve decisions
True for decisions based on logic:
Discovering decisions that ought to be made
Identifying goals and choices
Reducing the chances for bad outcomes
But most decisions are not based purely on logic:
The unknowable looms large
Intrinsic psychological distortions
The moral component
A new decision science is emerging
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
Decisions Can be Good, Bad, or Both
Good Foresight, Good Decisions
The Montreal Protocol to limit ozone depleting
gasses
Population forecasts of the 60’s led to family
planning
AIDS forecasts led to massive research and
prevention programs
Silent Spring, Limits to Growth
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
Bad Decisions
They Should Have Known Better
The British lost their US colonies by raising taxes
Chamberlain “Peace in our time.”
Unaccepted Challenges
Stem cell research in the US
International crime influences global politics
Unforeseen Consequences
Thalidomide caused birth defects
Nosocomial infections
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
Why Do So Many Global Decisions Go Awry?
Governments sometimes lie
Uncertainty, risk aversion
Faith in low probability favorable outcomes
Failure to recognize the need for action
Xenophobia, geographic determinism
Lack of courage, bad luck, chance, avarice,
selfish interests, amorality, corruption
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
What Goes Into a Decision?
Three questions:
What is possible?
What is likely?
What is desirable?
Futures research helps with
Identifying goals
Assessing prospective policies
Quantifying risks
Futures research does not help much with
Reducing the unknowable
Psychological factors
Moral and ethical factors
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
Uncertainty
Reducing the unknowable
SIMAD
Research and control of violent behavior
Human-computer symbiosis, brain boosters
Transhumanism
Monitoring everywhere
Challenging truth
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
The Illogical Mind
Psychological Factors
Odds are generally ignored
Any data is persuasive
Innate overconfidence
Great lengths to avoid loss
Risk aversion
Problem framing
Source: Tversky and Kahneman, various
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
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Moral Intelligence
Moral and Ethical Factors
 Do no harm
 Be fair
 Care for future
generations
 Mitigate suffering
 Treat others the way
you would like to be
treated
 Enhance human
survival (educate)
 Serve as a standard
Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World
A New Decision Science
A new curriculum
Futures research; foresight; FT
Intuition, imagination: experience, subtle clues
Psychology; personal utility functions
Balance of risks and rewards
Experiments and analogy
Understanding innate illogic of human thinking
Moral courage