Transcript TABOR COMMUNICATIONS, INC. Providing solutions for the HPC

Addison Snell, [email protected]
SC11: HPC Trends
and Market Update
Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing
November 2011
Intersect360 Research
• HPC market sizing, forecast, and technology trend
analysis
• Quarterly surveys of worldwide end users since 2007
• Research reports published monthly on average
• Feature articles in partner publications
• Custom research, consulting, special studies
• Weekly podcast with Michael Feldman, HPCwire
• “Analyst Crossfire” at HPCC, ISC, SC conferences
HPC Total Market Model and Forecast
HPC Total Market Forecast ($000)
• 22% growth
2009 - 2010
• Sales cycles come
back in
• Post-recession
growth is high in
2011-12 except
U.S. gov’t & acad.
• Servers are the
largest component,
but storage fastest
growing
Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011
HPTC vs. HPBC Definitions
High Performance Technical Computing (HPTC)
• Applications in science and engineering
• Top markets: academia, government labs, defense,
manufacturing, bio/life science, oil/gas exploration
High Performance Business Computing (HPBC)
• Applications include trading, pricing, risk management,
logistics, fraud detection, online games, analytics, …
• Top markets: financial services, ultrascale internet,
online games, retail, entertainment
HPTC and HPBC Vertical Markets
HPTC Total Market (2010 rev., 70%) by Vertical
25% Acad.
HPBC Total Market (2010 rev., 30%) by Vertical
40% Comm.
35% Govt.
• Financial analytics and DCC&D reclassified and restated as HPBC
• HPBC is >95% commercial (exceptions: Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve Bank, …)
• Financial services is only slightly smaller than total manufacturing
Different Software Approaches
Bio
CFD
Structures
(CAE)
Oil
HPC Total Market by Region
2010 HPC Total Market Revenue by Geography
Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011
• North America was 54%
in 2007; continuing to fall
as percentage
• U.S. government and
academic markets
restricted by current
budgetary climate in
Congress
• Asia-Pacific has highest
growth rate; EMEA has
highest growth volume
2010 HPC Server Revenue Share
• IBM has been consistent #1
• HP took over #2 with strong
2010
• Sun falling off
• SGI, Cray easy to track
• Large percent of systems in
our surveys identified as “inhouse” or “generic”
• Notable “others”: Appro,
Bull, Fujitsu, Penguin,
Sugon, Supermicro,
T-Platforms, …
10 Important HPC Trends in 2011
1. Accelerator adoption continues:
–
–
About two-thirds of users at least testing them (was
20% one year ago)
NVIDIA has 90% of current accelerator usage but will
now face off against Intel MIC
2. Storage is fastest-growing product sector
–
–
Storage consolidation intensifies competition
Lustre roadmap stabilized for HPC
3. InfiniBand struggles to grow further as an HPTC
system interconnect; needs new usage or markets
10 Important HPC Trends in 2011
4.
5.
6.
7.
Biggest finance application is risk management
Facilities continues to increase share of budget
Memory usage growing with multi-core
Programming services spending buoyed by
multi-core, accelerators, cloud
8. Cloud is only 3% of spending; mostly private cloud
9. Windows share flattened after years of growth
10. Big Data represents a major opportunity for HPC
vendors to grow
Big Data Market Opportunities
• “Big Data” is a rapidly growing set of applications
touching large datacenters, SMBs, and research
• Fueled by creation and availability of data
• Organizations seek to bridge the gap between having
better data and making better decisions
• Application areas include: enterprise analytics,
research analytics, real-time analytics, complex event
processing, data mining, visualization …
• Growth in these application areas creates a market
opportunity for providers of HPC technologies
Intersect360 Research at SC11
• BOFs/Panels:
– Big Data webcast (Monday) and BOF (Tuesday)
– BOF: Archiving in the Cloud (Wednesday)
– Panel: The Path to Exascale (Wednesday)
• Sponsored receptions:
– Intersect360 Research reception (Monday afternoon)
– Beowulf Bash (Monday night)
• SC11 Analyst Crossfire (Friday 1:30-3:00)
– Vendors: Pete Ungaro (Cray), Don Becker (NVIDIA)
– Users: Earl Dodd (RMSC), Keith Gray (BP)
Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing