Transcript What is your probability of survival?

What is your probability of survival?
Inspired by Victoria Young’s Lesson – “A Matter of Survival”
published in Mathematics Teacher, Vol. 95, No.2 (February 2002)
Summary of yesterday
Pre-class exercise of card probabilities
Generated random numbers to get blood
types for those without blood type data
Filled in Blood Type Data Worksheet
Wrote names and numbers of blood types
on large papers in back of room
Filled in classmate data in middle of
worksheet
TODAY
Complete Blood Data Type worksheet
Discuss differences in percentages
Overview of blood type compatibilities
Access internet to find national
percentages and specific compatibilities
Calculate your probability of survival
number of compatible donors
total number of donors
TODAY Overview (continued)
Discuss probabilities
Checkpoint with Reality
Current blood supply status
Other uses for data collection & statistical
analysis
Complete Probability Worksheet
Questions to ponder…
What is the difference between data and
information?
Why is the size of the data pool important?
What Math concepts/skills did we use in
this lesson? And where else might they be
used?
Why do people say that a picture (chart) is
worth a thousand words?
What causes a blood supply shortage?
Let’s Finish Data Collection
Fill in “total class data” section of Blood
Type Data worksheet
Calculate percentage of each blood type
for the total class data.
Compare O+ percentages and form
opinions on these questions:
Why are the percentages different?
O+
your
data
your
total
your
%s
your
group's
data
group
total
group
%s
O-
A+
A-
B+
B-
AB+
AB-
total
Let’s Look Compare Results
 Why are there differences?
 Which do you think are closer to national
percentages? And why?
60
40
20
0
A+
B+ AB+ O+
A-
B- AB-
individual group class
O-
Let’s take a closer look at blood types
O+
B+
A+
AB+
AB-
A-
O-
B-
Let’s get more compatibility info on the
internet
Go to the following website:
http://www.bloodbook.com
(then, click on blood type facts)
Let’s take a closer look at blood types
O+
B+
A+
AB+
AB-
A-
O-
B-
Calculate probabilities of survival in
different scenarios
0%
10%
0%
0%
40%
50%
0%
O+
OA+
AB+
BAB+
AB-
Probability of Survival
Different probability based on donors
Friends/family
Classmates
Entire class sample
National donor distribution
Why is this?
Reality Check
What do you think the blood supply is
dependent on?
Donors – eligible, willing and frequency
Users
Time / expiration
Let’s check current supply
www.newenglandblood.org
Summary
Analyzed data – grouped, percentages
Collected/generated data
Learned about blood compatibility
Calculated probability of finding
compatible donor
Where do you think the above processes
might be used in the real world?
Just a few examples…
…of data collection and statistical analysis
used in real life
Drug research
Health care quality
Nielsen TV ratings
Retail purchasing
Forecast spending
Allocation of Budget