Transcript Probability

Probability and Chance
Mrs. Escamilla
5th grade Math
Probability

Probability is a measure of how likely it is
for an event to happen.
 We name a probability with a number from
0 to 1.
 If an event is certain to happen, then the
probability of the event is 1.
 If an event is certain not to happen, then the
probability of the event is 0.
Probability

If it is uncertain whether or not an event
will happen, then its probability is some
fraction between 0 and 1 (or a fraction
converted to a decimal number).
B
C
A
D
3
1
2
A
C B
1. What is the probability that the spinner
will stop on part A?
2. What is the probability that the
spinner will stop on
(a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?
3. What fraction names the
probability that the spinner will
stop in the area marked A?
Probability Fishing game!

Click to play BBC Education-Maths FileFish Tank
It’s Probably Time For
M&M’s !!

Testable Question: Which color is most
likely to be picked at random from a bag
of M&M’s?
 Hypothesis:

Take one bag of M&M's.
 Count the total number in the bag.
 Separate the M&M's into each color.
Collecting Data

You should have a red, yellow, orange, green,
blue, and brown pile.
Count how many M&M's are in each pile.
 Remember to organize your data in a table.
 Which color has the largest quantity?
Which color has the smallest quantity?
Is this what you expected to find? Why or why
not?
CALCULATE THE MEDIAN, MODE, AND
RANGE OF THESE NUMBERS
Collecting & Analyzing Data
Creating Data Tables
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Calculate the probability of picking a certain color of
M&M for each color category.
The probability is found by creating a fraction,
The number of M&M's in a color is placed in the
numerator, the total number of M&M's is placed in the
denominator.
Example: If there are 6 red M&M's and 54 total M&M's.
The probability of picking a red M&M is 6/54.
Remember the more likely something is, the closer to 1
the probability will be.
What color is most likely? Which one is least likely?
Are there any that are equally likely? (This means the
probabilities are the same.)
What if you had….

Look at the fraction for blue. What is the
probability you would find a blue M&M in
a handful of, say, 10 total M&Ms? 20? 30?

Consider this for each color. Include in your
notes the probability for each color using
the numbers above.
Display Your Results

Create a bar graph reflecting your findings.
 Make sure to label each axis & give it a
title
Pull It All Together
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On a large sheet of paper, display the following:
Data table showing the number of each color that
you had (Headings: color/amount)
Bar Graph
Table showing the probability of drawing each
color at random from the bag (fraction form)
Expected probability with different amounts of
M&Ms
Median, mode and range of your data
Written Assignment

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Write a one page paper describing the process you
went though, your findings, and reflections on
those findings.
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:
Discuss the procedure you followed, and your
findings for each color.
Describe any similarities and differences between
the probabilities.
Describe which color is most likely to be picked at
random, and which color is least likely. (“closer to
one”) Justify why you think this.
What questions do you have that you would like to
investigate further?
How would you do this experiment differently?
Probability Questions

Lawrence is the captain of his track team.
The team is deciding on a color and all eight
members wrote their choice down on equal
size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at
random, what is the probability that he will
pick blue?
blue
blue
yellow
red
green
black
blue
black
CHANCE

Chance is how likely it is that something
will happen. To state a chance, we use a
percent.
0
½
1
Probability
Certain not
to happen
Equally likely to
happen or not to happen
Certain to
happen
Chance
0%
50 %
100%
Chance

When a meteorologist states that the chance
of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying
that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain.
If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
likely to rain. If the chance drops to 20%,
then it may rain, but it probably will not
rain.
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A.
B.
C.
Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1
to 6. Which of the following is LEAST
LIKELY?
an even number
an odd number
a number greater than 5
1 2
4 3
1. What is the chance of spinning a
number greater than 1?
4 1
2
3
5
2. What is the chance of spinning a 4?
3. What is the chance that the spinner
will stop on an odd number?
4. What is the chance of rolling an even
number with one toss of on number cube?