Transcript 2015_07_west_fs_briefing_dkr_pt

Famine Early Warning Systems Network
WEST AFRICA FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK
July to September 2015
July 2, 2015
Dakar, Senegal
Presentation outline
 FEWS NET’s analytical process and orientation to the region
 Drivers of current regional food insecurity
 Food security outcomes for July to September 2015
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Key messages
 Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity is likely in north-eastern
Nigeria and amongst small populations in the Central African
Republic and Mauritania. Humanitarian assistance is needed to avoid
large consumption gaps.
 Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity
will be present in many other areas of West Africa.
 Projected outcomes are partially dependent on the performance of
the current rainy season and current rainfall models are showing
mixed forecasts. If a poor rainy season were to occur, food security
outcomes could worsen.
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The scenario development approach
STEP 1: Set scenario
parameters
STEP 6: Develop
response assumptions
STEP 7: Describe and
classify projected HH
food security
STEP 2: Describe and
classify current food
security
STEP 5: Describe
impacts on HH food
sources
STEP 8: Describe and
classify projected
area food security
STEP 3: Develop key
assumptions
STEP 4: Describe
impacts on HH
income sources
STEP 9: Identify
events which could
change the scenario
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Source: FEWS NET
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IPC 2.0 area phase classification
PHASE 1
Minimal
Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable
coping strategies.
PHASE 2
Stressed
Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford
some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies.
PHASE 3
Crisis
Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food
needs through unsustainable coping strategies.
URGENT
ACTION
REQUIRED
Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing
PHASE 4
extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption
Emergency
gaps.
PHASE 5
Famine
!
Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs.
Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.
Phase classification would likely be worse without current or programmed humanitarian
assistance.
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Seasonal calendar in the Sahel
Outlook period
Source: FEWS NET
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CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT
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Prices similar to or below the five-year average
May 2015 millet prices compared to the five-year average
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Source: FEWS NET
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Lingering economic impacts of Ebola
Employment rates in Sierra Leone
Hours worked last week amongst those
employed
LFS: July – August 2014; round 1: November 2014; round 2: January/February 2015; round 3: May 2015
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Source: World Bank, IPA,
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Statistics Sierra Leone
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Conflict continues in Nigeria and CAR
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where June cumulative rainfall was less than 80% of normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where the evaporative transpiration anomaly (Eta) is less than 90% of average
difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where all three measures were below normal
Source: FEWS NET
Ground reports indicate:
 Significant delays (3-4 weeks) of agricultural activities in the Sudanian zone
 Reduced seasonal agricultural work incomes for poor households
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Other key drivers
 Below-average availability of
pasture in pockets across the
northern Sahel
NDVI maximum anomaly, 2014
 Localized areas of below-average
household food stocks and
livestock incomes due to poor
2014/15 rainfall
 Average to above-average offseason cropping activities
 Regular supply of imported rice
and wheat from international
markets
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
 Avian influenza negatively
impacting poultry farmers in
Burkina Faso, Nigeria
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Food security outcomes, July to Sept 2015
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Source: FEWS NET
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Events that could change the Outlook
 Late start to the rainy season across the northern Sahel
 Below-average rainfall or poor temporal distribution of the
rains
 Atypically extensive damage from locusts or other pests
 Drastic increase in new Ebola cases, or spread to neighboring
countries
 Significant increase in humanitarian assistance levels
 Aggravation of current conflicts with an increase of displaced
persons
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For more information
Laouali Ibrahim
Regional Technical Manager, West Africa
[email protected]
+227-20-37-36-88
Abdou Karim Ouedraogo
Food Security Analyst, CILSS/TAC, West Africa
[email protected]
+226-25-49-96-00
To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net
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Mixed seasonal forecasts for July to September
Probability (most likely category of
precipitation), Issued June 2015
Probability of below-normal precipitation,
Issued June 2015
Probability (most likely category of
precipitation), Issued May 26, 2015
Source: UK Met
Source: ECMWF
Multi-Model Probability Forecast for
Precipitation, Issued June 2015
Precipitation Standard Anomalies, Issued
June 2015
Source: ACMAD
Source: NOAA/CPC
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Source: IRI
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