Transcript can online social networks be used in forward

CAN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS BE USED
IN FORWARD-LOOKING STUDIES?
O. Da Costa, R. Cachia, R. Compañó
Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
Joint Research Centre / European Commission
E-41092 SEVILLA
Second International FTA Seville Seminar
September 2006
Overview
Online Social Networks (OSN):
 A new social phenomenon
 A new communication tool
OSN for detecting changing social
patterns
OSN Communities on Foresight
Assets & Limitation
A graph showing typical network of friends in
Orkut compiled by Orkut2dot
What are online social networks (OSN)?
OSN is a group that primarily
interacts via the internet.
As online communities, they are
self-organised electronic
networks organised around a
shared interest or purpose
[Rheingold, 1993].
Significant socio-technical
change has resulted from the
proliferation of OSNs.
Figure by
J. Layton
Networking by chain effect:
« friends » connect with
« friends-of-friends » who
connect with « friends-offriends-of-friends »
OSNs: Characteristics
Member’s
Profile
Networking
« Friends »
Tools for
Network communication
Communitieso
f interest
Example: Orkut
Orkut: An OSN Case Study
Philosophy:
 Organically growing network of trusted “friends“
 Membership by invitation-only
Features - members can:
 introduce profiles (photo, hobbies, academic data, etc.)
 join discussions or create their own
 “rank” and write testimonials about others
Exponential Growth:
Jan 2004
Feb 2004:
July 2004:
Apr 2005:
Jan 2006:
Sep 2006:
created
100 000
1.000.000
5.000.000
12.000.000
29.000.000
OSN: Members Age Structure
Member are mostly
young people in
the18-25 age bracket
with quite a gender
balance.
Orkut
Feb 2006
Are they a representative selection of group who will be the
“shakers and movers” in 20 years from now?
Do OSN reveal novel patterns amongst youngsters that
may persist in a wider social scale?
Can we detect already: future change in social patterns or
future visions (networked society)?
OSN: A reflection of new social patterns?
Contacting, communicating and keeping in touch
 Novel spaces for communicating and interaction
 Difficulties in making yourself heard due to information overload
Changing Relations




Roles of media?
Collective collaboration
Networking across geographical locations
Influencing power?
How to detect signals of change?
Systematic screening networks needed. Possible
selection criteria
 Size of networks
 Level of activity
 Area of activity
Data-mining of relational databases
OSN: Assets
Relatively high motivation for voluntary
Contribution
 Anticipated Reciprocity, Increased Reputation, Sense of
efficacy, Communication* and Mutual trust)
Cost
 Relatively low with respect to alternative communication
tools
Flexibility
 New communities can be created any time
 No geographical bounders
* The Economies of Online Cooperation: Gifts and Public Goods in Cyberspace, 1999, Peter
Kollock
OSN: Some Limitations
 Automatic screening procedure difficult:


Large networks
Data may be incoherent, contradictory, incomplete or noncodified
 Role of coordinator is limited
 Intrinsic time delay (people to not respond
immediately) and an "open-ended character".
 Profiles may not always be reliable
 Privacy concerns
 Spamming and bugging might influence results
 Geographical bias (66.3% of Orkut members from
Brasil)
Join our OSN Foresight Community !
“Foresight & Future Studies”, Orkut,
www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=143886
Disclaimer: the authors have no relation or interest in the social network application selected for
this undertaking.
Other online tools with potential for Foresight
Growth of Online Social Networks
Orkut
MySpace
Flickr
YouTube
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Conclusion
OSN
 New social phenomenon
 Powerful large-scale communication tool
 Currently being researched for marketing, investigation in social
sciences and other
Objective of this presentation
 Initiate debate about the potential of OSN in forward-looking studies
Further work required
 In-depth investigation of limits, advantages and drawbacks
 A tested research framework, which could be used as an analytical
tool to conduct forward-looking studies
 Various research methodologies and complementary approaches
should be taken into consideration
Too early for assessing their potential, but prospects appear
promising