Transcript Technology - Coal Services International

ICCC 24 Hong Kong 15 - 16th November 2016
H & W Worldwide
Consulting
[email protected]

Environment

Technology
 Innovation, mining, blends,
Government responses to
utilisation
Climate Change
 Sequestration, green coal
 Community Sentiment - coal
 Energy storage
 Regulations
 Renewables
 Pace of Chinese industry reform
– long term
 People
 Community sentiment
 What to do with unskilled?
 Expectations of people wanting
Finance
more
 Project finance - availability
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Limitations
Supply
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China’s coal reserves
Vertical integration
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Others
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Vertical integration
Derivatives and Index
methodology
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Efficient China
Eveready
Future
Regulation
-ve to Coal
Happy
Dragon
30%
40%
10%
20%
Painful
death
Regulation
+ve to Coal
Wasted
opportunity
Inefficient China
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Technology
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Overpopulation
Food shortages
Global urbanization
Demographics
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Trump
Brexit/EU implosion
Trade sanctions
Chinese policy
Country alliances/Free Trade
Rmb global currency
China no 1 economy
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Social risk
Skills attraction
Availability of infrastructure
Disease
Climate change
Loss of US sovereignty
Water
Financial Regulation
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Geopolitical
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Wellbeing

Innovation
US energy self sufficiency
Substitution
Automation
Population
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Derivatives, futures
Financial crisis
Real estate China bubble
Others
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Industrial right to development
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Well being High
Rip
Coal
Technology
Disruptive to
Coal
Shangrila
5%
30%
35%
30%
Inglorious
Bastards
Well being Low
Technology
Non
disruptive
to Coal
Dark
age
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Technology
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Regulation
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Coal less US
Power storage, batteries
renewables
Substitution – coal, coke, steel
Cashless society
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Population
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Ageing populations
Hollowing of middle class
Rising gigi factor
Others
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Gas/oil high long term prices
Water
End of US supply
Resource protectionism
Stricture regulations
Land access
Geopolitical
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Global Crisis – all
Environment
Rising natural disasters
Debt
Human destructiveness WWIII
Terrorism
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Environmental
Regulation Low
Green
paradise
Technology
-ve to Coal
Back in
Black
25%
15%
35%
25%
Hero to
zero
Environmental
Regulation High
Technology
+ve to Coal
Tight
Fit
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Technology
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Quality
Resource depletion
Exploration
Land access
Finance & working capital
Indonesia
China dominance
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EAF growth/emergence
Global peak coal
Market instability
Regulation
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Oil shock
War
Population
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War
World boom/bust
Global disasters
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Protectionism
Deregulation
Public opinion
Geopolitical risks
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Resources
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Energy storage, batteries
renewables
Fuel Substitution
Nuclear future – Fusion
Decarburisation
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Urbanisation India others
demographics
Others
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Gas/oil high long term prices
Water
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China Efficient
Green
Dragon
Technology
-ve to Coal
E-Dragon
25%
15%
35%
25%
Crazy
Dragon
Technology
+ve to Coal
Puff
China
Inefficient
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Current Scenarios

Distribute for consideration

Feedback and comments.
Flags (signposts)

Collate lists of flags from each group,
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Establish ongoing monitoring, for mid year reporting.
Positioning and Trends
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Look to identify position on scenario matrix and current trends
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Follow and monitor events aligned to flags
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Assess and calibrate current and emerging industry trends
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Prepare review for next ICCC
Update and Assessment (November ICCC)
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Report back and discussion on scenarios,
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Update, modify extend, simplify scenarios next ICCC
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Thank you for listening, your hard work and be
foxy in the next 12 months!!
[email protected]
H & W Worldwide
Consulting