Transcript File - Healthy Planet UK

Climate change – reducing the risks to health
Andy Haines
Carbon dioxide measurements since 1957
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our emissions
• For every 100t of CO2 emitted now, 15-40t will remain in the atmosphere in1000y
• Other long-lived GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs..) give the equivalent of 20% mor
Earth’s Temperature Chart, since
Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago
Arctic ice
sheets
East Antarctic
West Antarctic
ice sheet
ice sheet
Paleocene
12
?
8
+5oC
4
0
Temp oC (vs
+3oC
+1.5oC
last 2m yr
= ice-age
1961-90 av temp)
60myr
50myr
40myr
30myr
20myr
Millions of Years Before Present
10myr
Now
Sea level 25-40
metres higher
than today
Tripati et al Science 2009
A warming climate
IPCC 2013
Surface temperature
change 1901-2012
Global average sea level change
September Arctic sea ice area
Projections of globally averaged surface temperature
change from 1986-2005
IPCC 2013
+0.6C for change from pre-industrial
Projections of regional surface temperature change
1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario (RCP8.5)
IPCC 2013
Temperature
Precipitation
Projections for other quantities
IPCC 2013
Global Ocean surface pH
+0.2m for change from 1900
An adaptability limit to climate change due to
heat stress
Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber PNAS 2010
Exceeding peak heat stress for extended periods should
induce hyperthermia in humans
‘....It would begin to occur with global-mean warming of
about on 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions
into question’
D.S.Battisti and R.L. Naylor . Science 2009
France, August 2003
~15000 deaths (~70,000 in Europe) Robine et al 2007
Temperature distribution across Europe on
10 August 2003 at 1500hrs
Possible work intensity as a function of temperature
34 °C
32 °C
28 °C
Source: Kjellstrom T et al, Global Health Action 2009. DOI: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.2047
400 Watts
(heavy work)
300 Watts
(medium work)
1
500 Watts
(very heavy work)
0
.25
.5
.75
200 Watts
(light work)
24
28
32
36
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (°C)
40
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Baseline 2000
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Highlands
Source: Ebi et al., 2005
Climate Change and Malaria - Potential
transmission in Zimbabwe
2025
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Source: Ebi et al., 2005
Diarrheal disease and rainfall

Global overview of 36 published
reports from LMICs from 1954-2000
(Lloyd, Kovats, Armstrong. Climate Res 2007)

4% (1-7%) increase in diarrhoea
incidence in children aged <5 per 10
mm /month decrease in rainfall

Reduced effect of hand washing
where rainfall is low?
CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst
MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050
20
Plus climate-related:
• Flood/storm/fire damage
• Droughts – range, severity
• Pests (climate-sensitive)
• Infectious diseases (ditto)
36
80
64
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50
-20
0
+20
+50
+100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
Impacts on malnutrition
Increased numbers of stunted children
Lloyd S, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z (2011)
Region
Millions of additional children with
stunting in 2050 due to climate
change
NCAR climate
scenario
CSIRO climate
scenario
South Asia
7
6
Sub-Saharan Africa
9
9
Many millions more people are projected to be
flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s
Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.
2010 – a harbinger of things to come?
Pakistan floods ~ 20 m affected
Chinese floods ~ 12m displaced
Russian drought and fires –wheat harvest down ~ 30%
56,000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia
(Munich Re estimate)
Record temperatures in
17 countries.
Deaths Attributable to Climate Change in Year 2000
Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition
(~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K)
14 WHO statistical regions are, here, scaled by estimated annual mortality
(in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970. Selected causes of death.
(Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)
There are physical, behavioural and
technological limits to how much we can adapt
 Physical limits: small low
lying islands e.g. Cayman
Islands
 Behavioural
limits: influence
where we live and why, e.g.
New Orleans
 Technological
limits: e.g. to
the flood defences such as
Thames Barrier, London
Fossil fuel emissions for the scenarios
IPCC 2013
Health co-benefits from the ‘lowcarbon’ economy
Through policies in several sectors e.g.
 Housing
 Transport
 Food and agriculture
 Electricity generation
A
0
Cases of serious illness from air pollution /TWh
30
0
200
100
0
Deaths from air pollution and accidents/TWh
40
0
10
20
30
Air pollution impacts vs CO2 emissions
B
lignite
coal
oil
biomass
nuclear
gas
500
lignite
coal
oil
biomass
gas
nuclear
1000
1500
0
Equivalent CO2 emissions g/kW.hr-1
Source: Markandya A, Wilkinson P. Lancet 2007
500
1000
1500
GBD estimates for air pollution deaths
( Lim et al LANCET 2012 ;380;)
Ambient particulates
~3.2m deaths p.a.
 Household from solid
fuels
 ~3.5 m p.a.
 Tropospheric Ozone
~ 150 k deaths p.a.

Benefits of household energy efficiency in the UK
(combined insulation and ventilation control improvements)
( Wilkinson et al 2009
12.5°C
12
11
SP01
10
9
8
7
7.0°C
Impacts
Reduced exposures e.g. to fine
particles, radon, cold, mould, tobacco
smoke
Premature deaths averted
~ 5400/ year
Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990)
55
Modelled health benefits of active travel and low emission
vehicles: London and Delhi ( Woodcock et al 2009)
Increased active travel in London--- Health
effects ( also diabetes, depression , cancer of
the breast and bowel)
Change in disease burden
Change in premature
deaths
Ischaemic heart
disease
10-19%
1443-2207
Cerebrovascular
disease
10-18%
866-1271
Dementia
7-8%
195-250
Breast cancer
12-13%
203-211
Road traffic crashes
19-39%
47-86
Food and Agriculture Sector


80% of total emissions in sector from livestock production
Reducing animal source saturated fat by 30 % and replacing it
with polyunsaturates could reduce heart disease deaths by ~
15% (~ 18,000 premature deaths) in the UK
New technologies for clean energy
Building a low carbon,accessible and resilient
health system






Design to reduce energy use and GHG emissions.
Increase resilience to floods and heatwaves
Provide care closer to home
Reduce hospital vehicle emissions
Encourage use of public transportation and bicycles
Use locally sourced food and reduce animal product
consumption
Photos: HCWH, Practice Greenhealth
33
Climate change has far reaching and potentially
catastrophic impacts but many low carbon policies
can improve health and the economy.