Transcript Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
Richard B. Rood
734-647-3530
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
Winter 2008
April 3, 2008
Class News
• Class Web Site and Wiki
–Climate Change: The Move to
Action
• Winter 2008 Term
Next 4 lectures
• April 3: Report from BP / Exxon //
Continuity / Public Health and Climate
• April 8: Business and Climate //
Discussion
• April 10: Current Issues // Discussion
• April 15: Final Presentations
• April 21: Submission of Final Presentation.
(.ppt and .doc) (April 24, absolute latest!)
Extra Special Seminar
You Can Argue With the Facts:
A Political History of Climate Change
Naomi Oreskes
University of California, San Diego
Monday, 7 April 2008
4:00–5:30 pm
Betty Ford Classroom, Weill Hall, Rm 1110
Seeking Project Happiness
Presentation: Total time for presentation and questions is 30 minutes.
Aim for presentation of 20 minutes.
My goal, here, is something like a real world experience.
Therefore, first get the presentation “right.”
Paper: There should be an accompanying narrative to the presentation.
This should include references.
Minimally: Narrative is description of the presentation.
Target: Narrative in the spirit of executive summary, or “white paper” that the
receiver of the presentation can take away and “carry forward.”
Needs Abstract.
10 pages is a good target. If it is longer than 10 pages needs an Executive
Summary. (Due April 21, Latest April 24)
If you want to write more it is great! I’ve had as high as 60 pages by groups who
really did plan, and did, take them forward. You should feel like you have done a
good job, in the time that you have.
Readings on Local Servers
• Assigned
– WHO: Climate Change and Public Health
– McMichael: Analysis of Health Impact, Inequality, and
Health Sector
• Of Interest
– Meehl and Tebaldi: Climate Change and Heat Waves
– Watson: Overview of Science, Policy, Public Health,
etc.
• Foundational Reading
– McKinsey: Climate Change Special Initiative
Outline of Lecture
• Projects
• Revisit fingerprinting and attribution
– Questions
• Public health and climate change: A
paradigm problem
– Heatwaves
Fingerprinting
The Basic Idea:
Postulate that climate changes for both “natural” and
“anthropogenic” components.
Climate measurements contain both components of
change.
Model forcing can be written with separate natural and
anthropogenic forcing.
Model simulation with natural forcing is used as a
proxy for the natural climate.
Is the observed climate significantly different from the
proxy natural climate?
Fingerprinting
The Basic Idea:
Is the observed climate significantly different from the
proxy natural climate?
AND
And is the observed climate statistically the same as the
model simulated natural plus anthropogenic forcing?
Section 2: Studying the Causes of Climate Change (From Ben Santer)
Human-caused fingerprints have been identified in
many different aspects of the climate system
Surface specific humidity
Water vapor over oceans
Tropospheric temperatures
-0 . 5
-0 . 6
Ocean temperatures
-0 . 3
-0 . 4
-0 . 1
-0 . 2
0.1
0
0.3
0.2
Stratospheric temperatures
0.5
0.4
-1
-0 . 6
-0 . 2
Tropopause height
0.6
-1 . 2
-0 . 8
-0 . 4
0.2
0
0.6
0.4
Sea-level pressure
Atmospheric temperature
50
18
100
14
200
Zonal-mean rainfall
Near-surface temperature
10
300
6
500
2
850
60N
45N
30N
-1. 5
-1. 8
15N
-0. 9
-1. 2
0
-0. 3
-0. 6
15S
0. 3
0
30S
45S
0. 9
0. 6
Continental runoff
60S
1. 5
1. 2
1. 8
1
0.8
1.2
Climate Change and Public Health
• Public Health, esp. heatwaves, will be used as
an example to show the elements of a real
problem and its relation to climate change.
• How does it relate to mitigation, adaptation?
– policy
– law
– etc.
Climate Change and Public Health
• Acknowledgement and thanks to
– Marie S. O’Neill (Michigan)
– Sabrina McCormick (Pennsylvania)
Pathways by Which Climate
Change Affects Health
WHO: Climate Change and Public Health
Health Impacts of Climate Change
• Increased heat waves and shifts in urban air
quality
• Vector born diseases
• Range and seasonality of infectious diseases
• Rising sea levels and extreme weather events =
dislocation, environmental refugees = global
security issue
• Threatened food supply, release of toxins into
environment
• Decrease in water quality
Vector Born Disease
• Dengue, malaria, west nile virus, others
• Differential exposure on a global level
• Some unexpected by products - spraying
may cause chronic disease, drug
resistance
Extreme Weather Events
•
•
•
•
Injuries and death
Long term psychological problems
Increased infectious disease
Contaminated water supplies
Quantifying and forecasting climate
change public health impacts
• Colder climates, e.g., Netherlands, may
benefit
• Hotter climates may have more effects
with projected rise of 1.4-5.8o C
• Overall expected impact: increased
weather-related deaths
Useful way to think about impact and adaptation
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
For many things: living things and ecosystems
• There is an optimal range of an
environmental parameter, e.g. temperature
or moisture.
– Above or below this range risk increases
• The function looks like a parabola
– May be skewed
Skewed towards hot being dangerous
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
Skewed towards cold being dangerous
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
Analysis
• You would analyze this impact by:
(impact )
(temperature)
Heatwaves
• Public health experts count heatwaves as
the most consequential environmental
health risk.
– examples are Chicago Heat Wave 1995,
European Heat Wave 2003
What is a heatwave?
• Not so easy to define, because we have
now brought in the human dimension.
– Not the same in Houston and Chicago
• Extreme high heat?
• Persistent high heat?
Humans and heat
• Environmental heat exposure
• Exercise induced heat
• Ability to cool
An observation
• Extreme heat and exercise
– greater than 105 is bad!
• Persistent heat combined with
environmental heat exposure and ability to
cool
– strongly dependent on acclimation
– persistent night time minimum temperatures
are high
– this has been the most deadly
Heat Waves
in Future
Observed
Modeled
Predicted change in the future
Meehl and Tebaldi, Science, 2004
Heatwaves in future
• More frequent
• More intense
• Greater duration
The heatwave problem
• This problem already exists (short term).
• Climate change will amplify it.
• Mitigation of greenhouse gases will have
only indirect effect (long term)
• What are the most effective responses?
Levels of vulnerability to extreme
temperature
• Biomedical
– underlying disease (CVD, diabetes), coexposures, genetics, nutrition, medication use
• Socioeconomic position
– individual traits, neighborhood features
• Geography
– Topography and settlement patterns, housing,
air conditioning access, acclimatization to
prevailing temperature conditions
New work in spatial domain..by Glenn MacGregor
and others
Surface UHI
Spatial variation of heat
sensitivity
Pop > 85
Long-term limiting illness
Living in a flat
Living in medical/care institutions
Deprivation
High heat sensitivity mapped over surface temperature
Convergence of Surface temperature hotspots and areas of high
sensitivity
Is this pattern of joint occurrence a good predictor of the spatial
Variation of mortality?
Insights from sociology/geography
• 1995 Chicago heat wave: neighborhood
influences at small scale
• Population stability, social structure more
predictive than race
Eric Klinenberg (2002) Heat wave: A social autopsy of
disaster
• St. Louis: spatial features (heat island,
concentrated poverty) determined risk
Smoyer-Tomic, K, Social Science & Medicine, 1998
Social Networks & Illness
Social network measures:
Marriage, contact with
friends and family, church
membership and formal/
informal memberships
9 year prospective study
Berkman and Syme in
House et al 1988.
There are Adaptation Measures
• Federal versus city-level
• Existing:
– Heat warning systems
– Emergency management
– Air conditioning
Adaptation Measures
Health
outcome
Legislative
Technical
Educational
Cultural and
Behavioural
Thermal
Building
guidelines
Housing, public buildings,
urban planning to reduce
heat island effects, air
conditioning
Early
warning
systems
Clothing, siesta
Vector control, Vaccination,
impregnated bednets.
Sustainable surveillance,
prevention and control
programs
Health
education
Water Storage
practices
Genetic/molecular
screening of pathogens.
Improved water treatment
(e.g., filters). Improved
sanitation (e.g., latrines)
Boil water
alerts
Washing hands
and other
hygiene
behavior. Use of
pit latrines
Vectorborne
diseases
Water borne
diseases
Watershed
protection
laws
Water quality
regulation
We keep arriving at levels of granularity
WEALTH
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
Lessons from heat waves
• Existing problem with existing system to address
the problem
– Some good, some bad
• Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the
average
– Hence want to know how extreme events will change
• Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
– Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?
Lessons from heat waves
• Strongest levers for addressing the
problem are
– Societal capability (social integration,
structure, communications)
– Environmental warnings and alerts
– Education (first responders, general public,
....)
– Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces,
...)
Lessons from heat waves
• Policy focused specifically at heat waves
– local adaptation
– mitigation of heat in built environments.
Where do Impacts sit in relation to policy
• Heat waves have been used as an
example.