Transcript Slayt 1

A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISIS
FROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO
SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE
FUTURE/HUMANITY
İbrahim Öztürk
Prof. Dr.
Marmara University
Bosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies
DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT
PUT EMPHASSI ON THE QUALITY OF YOUR
RESPONSE
THE NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF
INVENTION
THE CRISIS of 1970s...
 Post 2nd. WW qantitif or physical developement saturated
as of 1970s.
 Return on capital started decreasing. What is next?
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Side efect of developmentalist / Keynesian state emerged.

Collapse of Gold Standard /End of Bretton Woods System

Oil Crisis and Stagflation

Significant convergence amongs latecomers and the
leading Cs.

THE RESPONSE (NOT Crisis but quality of reaction defining)
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
The rise of Neo-Liberal Order: Deregulation, end of nation states
as unit of analysis.
Governance Structures and
Institutional Foundation of market under attack


Trade and Finance Liberalization.
Seperation of capital and the nation states.






From stake holder to share holder value maximization.
The rise of virtual, finance and the bubble economy through
financial innovations.
Gap widens btw. reel economy and the finance capital: Excessive
financializaiton
Real Estate Bubbles fastened: Chain was cut in Japan at early 1990s
and then spreaded to the rest of the World.
Unlike the first and second Industrial Revolution, now factors are
flowing from oceans to the inner lands, what has been called
periphery.
 Natural
Law: Some How Irreversible!
 Demographic
Structure
 Alienation
 Excessive
Exploitation of Resources
 Global Warming
 Evrironmental
Degradation
 Food and Commodity
 Aging
 Erosion of family
 Excessive selfishness and atomization
 Lack of hope and motivation in young
generations
 The rise of racism
 Joblessness / Unemployment
 Inevitably rising protectionism
 Lack of Leadership and Governance Crisis
 Cold War Global institutions: Legitimacy problem
FROM CRISIS TO
THE QUALITY OF REACTION
Crisis, Innovaiton Waves and
Technological Breakthrougs
(A Schumpeterian Creative Destruction?)
I. Industrial Revolution (1780-1840): Mass production of
textile, cotton critical input
II. IR (1840-1890): Steam Engine, Railroads, Coal
III. Waves of Change ( 1890-1940): Electricity,Steel and Iron
Age
IV. Waves of Change (1940-1990): Otomobile, Mass Prod. Of
Synthetic industrial goods. Energy (Oil)
V. Waves of Change (1990-?): The Age of ‘Nano’ and ‘speed
revolution’ (Knowledge, Communication, Computer
networks, Nano-Engineering. Semi-conductors or micro
electronic)
 ENERGY
 ENVIRONMENT
 HEALTH/BIOTECH
 FOOD
 NANO-REVOLUTION
 IT
(THE AGE OF HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN
(ALL NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT!)
 GROWTH
DYNAMICS
 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
 GEO-STRATEGIC POSITION
 KEY RESOURCES (ENERGY-COMMODITY)
 PROXIMITY TO THE MAJOR EMERGING
MARKETS
 STILL KNOWLEDGE
AS WE ARE ON THE SAME SHIP INDIVIDUAL
STORIES DO NOT WORK
BIG PICTURE: FACING THE ICEBERG
Macro results
Overheating and resistance
Micro results
&Fundamentals
Water Level
Systemic and Structural
Parameters
Culture / Mentality


GLOBAL PROBLEM GLOBAL SOLUTION
SINCE THE LAST CRISIS: OLD WINE IN OLD BOTTLE!
SHOULD GO BEYOND MATERIAL REACTIONS SUCH AS
MOTIVATING GROWTH ETC.
 QUESTIONING THE FUNDAMENTALS:
 PREMISES AND POSTULATES
 NEW TRINITY OF HUMAN BEING:
FREEDOM, MARKET AND MORALITY (Institutionalization and
endogenizing values in economic theroy)
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LISTENING TO
William Greider: The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Path
to a Moral Economy, 2003.
Amartya Sen, On Ethics and Economy, 1998.
A WORKING SYSTYEM REQUIRES SYNTHESIS BTW.
1. MARKET (PRICE) MECHANISM,
2. INSTITUTIONS, AND
3. CULTURE: None of them can be sacrificed
INSTITUTIONS WORK WITH CULTURE
BUT CULTURE CAN NOT BE IMPORTED.
AN INDIGENOUS LEARNING BY DOING IS
UNAVOIDABLE.
MODERNIST DOGMAS DO NOT WORK.
HOWEVER, A UNIVERSAL LEARNING CURVE EFFECT
IS QUITE USEFUL
REFORM AND CHANGE:
A “REVERSE ENGINEERING” OR
RE-PRODUCTION OF THE STATUSQUO
IS NOT REALISTIC
 A NEW MOTIVATION SCHEME through
 LEGITIMACY (with different mode of
distribution, participation, transparency,
accountability, responsibility, regulation)
 A NEW SOCİAL CONTRACT is urgent
 POLITICAL
STABILITY
GOOD GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY AND
AUTONOMY OF STATE
CHNAHING ASIA
GDP (bill. dollars)
Pop. (000 persons)
Per-capita
(GDP, $)
World
59900
6,707.000
8940
Asia
16700
4,054,000
4175
Jap.
5068
127.551
39740
China
4984
1,334.740
3734
Russia
1231
141.900
8681
India
1236
1,199.062
1031
S. korea
832
48.758
17074
Turkey
614
70.538
8711
Indonezia
539
231.547
2329
Saudi Arabia
376
25.519
14744
Taivan
378
23.120
16372
UAE
223
4.908
45614
Kaynak: IMF
30
28
SHARE OF ASIA IN WORLD GDP (PPP)
28,3
26
24
22
20
18
16
14,4
14
12
10
8
9,5
8,0
7,2
6
5,2
4
2
0
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