Transcript City Berlin

Urban Climate Information:
Usefulness for Planning Practice at present and in Times of
Climate Change
NACLIM / Workshop Towards URBAN CLIMATE SERVICES
21./22.06.2016
Vleva Building, Kortenberglaan 71, 1000 Brussels
Jörn Welsch, SenStadtUm
[email protected]
Fehrbelliner Platz 1, 10707 Berlin
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
Outline:
• Berlin’s actual challenge towards Urban growth
• Climate Information as a basis of valuation in
Urban Planning processes
• Motivation to join the project and expectations
with regard to the project
• Results of NACLIM scenarios
• Integration into Berlin’s climate change adaptation
efforts
• Values / limits (so far) of NACLIM results to
support the official projects
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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The City of Berlin
Area 890 km²
Population 3.6 million as of June 2016
• building
areas
43.6
building
areas
43.6
%%
• forests
forests
18.018.0
% %
•
traffic area 15.2 %
traffic area 15.2 %
open
space
11.6
• open
space
11.6%%
agriculture
4.94.9
%%
• agriculture
rivers
andand
lakes
6.76.7
%%
• rivers
lakes
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Population dynamics
Population pyramid age structure as of 2011 and 2030
•
•
•
•
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Berlin’s population will on the one hand grow
older and at the same time increase in total to
an amount of 3.9 million until 2030.
The current expand is very dynamic.
In the last 5 years a significant increase by
about 220.000 people was registered.
Actually this growth is additionally influenced
by the influx of refugees.
It’s planned to construct up to 20.000
apartments per year in the next decade.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Political guideline: public and private house building
12 new quarters and…
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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… and a large number of inner-city agglomeration areas:
“New development of inner city housing”
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Requirements and guidelines from planners point of
view:
• “Speeding-up” of planning processes to use
disposable areas as much and as fast as possible
• Availability of actual and differentiated information to
undertake environmental impact assessments.
• Concentration of additional investigations
(measurements, application of (climate) models) on
essential projects
(those which are in the focus of the public or which are the
most land consuming development plans)
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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In this context reliable information of the current and
the predicted status of urban climate could be very
valuable to support the efforts for comfortable and
healthy urban climate conditions now and in the future.
This is all the more true as urban climate and the
climate change discussion are in the focus of the
public and the media.
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In Berlin we have a long tradition of dealing with
climate issues, beginning in the early 80th in WestBerlin with measurement-based projects and since the
beginning of the 2000th also with the application of
models.
All data are available in GIS-format, nowadays more
and more via our geoportal-webservices.
We provide also an English version of the geoportal.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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To enlarge our knowledge concerning predicted climate
change effects in Berlin we join the project with specific ……
Expectations:*
• A fresh overview of scientific results in the field of heat stress indices current
and in the future to evaluate bio-climatically burden (to compare with our
existing data, as far as this is possible)
• To close (some of) our knowledge gaps
• By simulating the effects of a realisation of (all) planned projects - building
projects as well as new greenery on different spatial and time scales
• By integrating local information about social infrastructure (schools,
hospitals, kindergarten)
• By evaluating age structure information of the population on a more
detailed level as so far
• to find more arguments to determine “taboo zones” as well as
redevelopment areas in the debate about the best strategy for the “cities
future”
* Mentioned at first end-user meeting Antwerp, June 13-14., 2013
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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The cooperation within projects like NACLIM seems to be the most effective
way for a win-win situation for all partners:
o for the scientists to receive reliable data of a project area and to get
feedback from and discussion with end-users
o For the end-users possibilities are given to get a fresh overview of
scientific results in relevant thematic fields with concern to their daily
work
In our concrete situation the very useful results from Vito and GIM can
support our different projects with scientific information, which would
otherwise not be available (because of limited financial means, missing
expert knowledge within the administration etc.).
The project results can furthermore serve as a comprehensive source for
public information via internet.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Results in a geo referenced form of a
map are essential for planning
purposes, as planners need a spatial
reference to localize burdens as well
as qualities.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Examples of relevant results of NACLIM (I) – 3 “heat wave days” basic sc.:
Time period
1986-2005
Time period
2026-2045
Time period
2081-2100
Remarkable findings:
Current situation: about 2,5 - 3 heat wave days per year in the
city,
- by 2030, the number of heat wave days will be already 3x
higher in the city center.
- by the end of the century, there will be 10x more heat wave
days than now (no change in use or measures regarded)
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Examples of relevant results of NACLIM (II) – ”heat wave days” urban
planning scenarios:
no change in use (left)
Number of heat wave days 2026-2045:
//
under consideration of all urban projects as realized (right)
Planning project
“Elisabeth-Aue”
Corresponding to our new Map of
conflict potential between housing
demands and climate qualities
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Relevant results of NACLIM (III) – vulnerability of the population
Current
distribution
of blocs with
Average
a high
number
of of
percentage
heat
wave
people
+ 65
days
or - 6inyears
combination
with the
distribution
of
inhabitants
aged + 65
years in
2030
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Relevant results of NACLIM (IV) – vulnerability of social infrastructure
Also available for other
sites:
• schools 2014
• hospitals 2014
• elderly stay facilities
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The task is now to integrate the NACLIM results into the
context of our further activities and results.
Conceptual this is easier than with regard to the contents and
methodology.
This may concern e.g. the selected threshold values to
evaluate the heat stress parameters or the dissolved grid cell
to calculate the values for the model output.
Variations between different approaches lead to different
results, especially these differing results may be sometimes
also interpreted by planners (without the help of urban climate
specialists).
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Actual activities concerning Berlin’s concept for adaptation to
the effects of climate change:
The 3 components
of Berlin‘s strategy:
Berlin Adaptation
Concept AFOK
(just finished – PIK et
al.)
Update of the „Urban
Development Plan
Climate“ from 2011
“Climate Model Berlin”
(simulating the current
situation in a very high
resolution, published
since the end of 2015)
NACLIM results as an
addition from scientific
site.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Final presentation for these purposes on July, 19th
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Relevant results of NACLIM – next steps to communicate the
data
•
Preparing a selection of NACLIM results to be available for
everybody at the final presentation via the geoportal with an
accompanying explanation in the Environmental Atlas (in
operation).
•
It is planned to publish a “special edition” to climate change
effects in one of Berlin’s newspapers. We try to integrate
NACLIM in this publication.
•
On going discussions of the results with the division “SR KE“
(Climate protection and energy) and other relevant colleagues in
our (planning) department.
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation
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Advanced wishes for the model developing
The scale of the model as far as it is offered until now
(250m*250m) is limited relating to local planning requirements. It
is difficult or impossible to dissolve bloc or streets situations.
Our own model approach to evaluate the local current climate
situation dissolves 10*10 m², but it has no “climate-changemodule”.
It would considerably lighten the localization of effects or
measures, if the scale would be more detailed for urban
demands; e.g. that streets can be modelled as independent
grids/areas.
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Thank you for your attention
Further information via: www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de
Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation