Transcript Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?

Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Hard Choices Ahead
Oakham School 9th September 2008
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
5th October 2007
CRed
Carbon Reduction
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
1
Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Hard Choices Ahead
• What causes Climate Change?
• Is it man made or natural?
• Are there other issues we also need to consider?
•
Energy Security
2
Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
3
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
4
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
5
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920
and 1970
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
•
Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
6
Temperature
oC)
Rise (Rise
Temperature
(oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
1.0
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1860
1900
1880
1920
1920
1900
19401960
1960
1980
1940
1980
2000
2000
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
•
Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
7
Is Global Warming man made?
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Natural and
Anthropogenic
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Generally a good match
•
Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
8
Climate Change:
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
‫تغير المناخ‬
‫ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب‬1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of
Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite
imagery
• ‫الصيف الجليد في القطب‬
‫الشمالي تغطية المنطقة‬
‫القطبيه‬
• ‫ناسا الصور الفضاءيه‬
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
•20 ٪ ‫ سنوات‬24 ‫تخفيض في‬
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
9
On average each person in UK
causes the emission of 9 tonnes
of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO2 looks like?
每一个英国人每年排放9吨 CO2
5 hot air balloons per person per
year. 相当于每人排放 5个热气球
In the developing world, the
average is under 1 balloon per
person 在发展中国家，这一水平
低于1个热气球
Is this Fair? 这公平吗？
“Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing
because he thought he could do only a little.”
‘没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动微不足道
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
Developing
EU
Other OECD
UK
Per capita Carbon Emissions
Japan
Transition
Oil Producing
11
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
USA
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
600
Sweden
800
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
Developing
1000
EU
Oil Exporting
Other OECD
400
200
0
12
Electricity Generation i n selected
Countries
r
coal
USA
oil
Japan
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
France
Poland
India
Sweden
China
Norway
Russia
other
renewables
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently
35%)
costs in 2020
Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Wholesale Price (p/kWh)
billion cubic metres
140
10
Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
9120
8
100
UK becomes
7
net importer of
6 80
gas in 2004
5
60
4
3 40
UK Production
2
20
Price projected by Government for
1
UK Demand
Gas generation in 2020
0 0
2004 2002
2006 2003
2008 2004
2010 2005
2012 2006
2014
2016
2001
2007 2018
2008 2020
2009
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
0 - 80% (curently
35%)
Gas CCGT
80%) - (currently
14000
20% and falling)
Installed Capacity (MW)
"Clean Coal"
Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is
0 - 30% (France new inherently safe designs completed each year after 2018.
nuclear fission
(long term)
nuclear fusion
costs in 2020
some practical development
needed
12000
New Build ?
10000
Projected
Actual
unavailable
8000
2.5 - 3.5p
not available until 2040
at earliest
6000
Traditional Coal
2.5 - 3.5p - but will
Available
now:
Not
4000 coal could
~40%EU - ETS carbon
viable without Carbon
supply
2000 40 - 50% by Capture & Sequestration trading will affect
2020
this
0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
Scroby Sands, one of UK’s first off shore wind farms
has had major technical problems but nevertheless
produced sufficient electricity on average for 60%
needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient
for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
Hydro
5%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
potential
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed
to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
Resource
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
• Biodiesel?
~ 2p
On Shore
Wind ~25% available now for commercial
• Bioethanol?
exploitation
• Compressed gas from some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
Off Shore
Wind 25 - 50%
methane from waste.
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
50% +
available, but research needed in
some areas
2.5 - 4
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be
needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
22
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Cost
in
Output
78 000inMWh
per
Potential contribution to electricity
supply
2020
annum from 1 barrier
2020 and drivers/barriers
Sufficient for twice~ the
2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
houses in Orkney
needed
- 3p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development
Save 40000
tonnes~2.5
of CO
2
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
research
10+ p
(MWh) needed
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much Output
to bring down costs significantly
700
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
600
Output (MWh per day)
Energy Crops
100% +
ultimately
some
areas
500
400
techology limited - major development
300
unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
200
100
Tidal Barrages
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
not
costed
31/12/2002
17/12/2002
03/12/2002
19/11/2002
05/11/2002
22/10/2002
08/10/2002
24/09/2002
10/09/2002
27/08/2002
13/08/2002
30/07/2002
16/07/2002
02/07/2002
18/06/2002
04/06/2002
21/05/2002
07/05/2002
23/04/2002
09/04/2002
26/03/2002
12/03/2002
26/02/2002
12/02/2002
29/01/2002
15/01/2002
01/01/2002
0
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
100% + techology limited - extensive
4 - 8p
Geothermal
some areas
development unlikely before 2020
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
not
costed
unlikely for electricity generation
before 2050 if then
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Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
•
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•
unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL
our power stations NOW Apart from small schemes it is not available at present.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
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Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
•
we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and
electricity from GAS
•
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of
Global Warming by using coal?
-the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
2
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
Solar Thermal Energy
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
27
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing
machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year
just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent
volume of 1 party balloon.
•
•
Standby on electrical appliances
60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons
at a cost of over £6 per year
Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How
far doesNo
one
to drive
in ainsmall
family
car (e.g. 1400 cc
At Gao’an
1 have
Primary
School
Xuhui
District,
Toyota Corolla) to emitShanghai
as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
28
The Behavioural Dimension
Comm
• Household size has little
impact on electricity
consumption.
Electricity Consumption
Average kWh/month
1200
1000
• Consumption varies by up to
a factor of 9 for any given
household size.
800
600
400
• Allowing for Income still
shows a range of 6 or more.
200
0
0
1
29
2
3
4
No. people
5
6
7
• Education/Awareness is
important
29
Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour
• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris
• Real performance is best at ~ 50
mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel
consumption cf 70 mph.
• Driver behaviour at low to
moderate speeds can affect
consumption by up to 10%%
New Vehicles:
A Hybrid Vehicle
30
Carbon Emissions from Train Travel
Analysing Results
on Journey
Energy Field Course 2007
Travelling en route to Orkney
To be more environmentally friendly it would need 6
people in a small family car or 8 - 9 in a People
Carrier
Norwich -Peterborough
Norwich - Peterborough
Peterborough Edinburgh
Edinburgh - Aberdeen
Peterborough - Edinburgh
Edinburgh - Aberdeen
Distance
(km)
Average Passenger Nos
carbon factor
gms/pass-km
05:52
132.2
58.4 (Max:67 Min 50)
31.9
07:46
12:06
509.7
183.8
297.9 (Max: 391, MIN:219)
116.3 Max 173; Min 64)
26.3
31.2
31
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future
未来的低碳之路
1. 不要浪费能源
Awareness
2. 使用效率高的设备
Technical Solutions
3. 使用可再生能源
Renewable Energy
4. 抵消碳排放
Offsetting
Conclusions
• Global Warming and Energy Security issues will affect us all - in
next few decades.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of
energy and small changes to behaviour.
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of
energy as any technical measures Governments may take.
• Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative
use of renewable energy are also important.
• 全球变暖和能源安全将在今后几十年影响我们
• 节约能源、在本地发电以及改变我们的行为
每个人可以做很多事情针对能源的使用，政府也可采取技
术措施。
• 统一协调地对建筑进行设计，创新地使用可再生能源也很重要。
Conclusions
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of
whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
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This presentation will be available from
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"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading.“
（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
34
Involve the local Community
• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a
wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and
indeed are a net exporter of electricity
35