Transcript How would my research and teaching enable the School for Policy

The Economics of Low Carbon Cities:
Exploring the Opportunities for
and Limits of Green Growth
Andy Gouldson, Sarah Colenbrander,
Andrew Sudmant, Effie Papargyropoulou,
Faye McAnulla, Niall Kerr,
Paola Sakai and Stephen Hall
School of Earth and Environment
University of Leeds, UK
E-mail: [email protected]
www.climatesmartcities.org
Our Approach
1.
Build a baseline of ‘business as usual’ trends to project energy use, energy
bills and carbon emissions.
1.
Identify lists of low carbon measures that could be adopted in each sector.
1.
Collect realistic data on the costs, benefits and lifetimes of measures.
1.
Calculate scope for deployment of each measure.
1.
Aggregate all of the above to build a ‘macro’ (city scale) picture of
investment needs, payback periods and carbon savings.
The Climate Smart Cities Programme
UK - Leeds, Sheffield,
Birmingham, Hull
Peru – Lima
Brazil – Recife
India – Kolkata
Rwanda – Kigali
China – Beijing,
Tianjin, Shanghai
Malaysia –
Johor Bahru
Indonesia –
Palembang
Example – domestic sector in Kolkata, India
Most cost-effective ($/tCO2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Solar water heaters with FiT (94)
4kW solar panels with FiT (85)
Banning incandescent light bulbs (57)
Raising thermostat 1C (43)
Entertainment appliances – standby (42)
More efficient air conditioners (39)
4kW solar panels (38)
Turning off lights (36)
Green Building Standards (35)
More efficient water heaters (32)
Most carbon-effective: (ktCO2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
More efficient air conditioners (6,003)
More efficient entertainment appliances
(3,529)
Turning off lights (3,519)
Retrofitting insulation to 10% of
households (2,494)
More efficient water heaters (2,205)
Entertainment appliances – standby
(1,710)
Banning incandescent light bulbs (1,426)
Raising thermostat 1˚C (1,174)
Installing 10MW of 4kW solar panels
(887)
Installing solar water heaters on 10% of
households (852)
Example – waste sector in Palembang, Indonesia
Most cost-effective ($/tCO2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Waste prevention (58)
Centralised compositing (52)
Landfill gas utilisation (27)
Energy from waste – Combined Heat
and Power (6)
Most carbon-effective: (ktCO2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Landfill gas utilisation (3,802)
Energy from waste – Combined Heat
and Power (3,414)
Centralised composting (732)
Waste prevention (118)
Results – Cost-effective carbon saving potential
Johor Bahru
200%
Lima
182%
160%
138%
120%
160%
143%
121%
120%
80%
80%
40%
40%
0%
0%
Kolkata
Palembang
300%
200%
240%
248%
160%
154%
180%
189%
120%
122%
120%
80%
60%
40%
0%
0%
Cost-effective
Business-as-usual
Cost-effective
Business-as-usual
Results – Costs and benefits
Johor Bahru,
Malaysia
Lima,
Peru
Palembang,
Indonesia
Kolkata,
India
Investment needs
(US$ billion)
1.0
5.0
0.4
2.0
Investment needs
(% of city GDP)
3.7
7.5
8.8
6.3
Annual savings
(US$ billion)
Annual savings
(% of city GDP)
Payback period
(years)
Carbon savings in
2025 (MtCO2-e)
0.8
2.1
0.4
0.5
2.9
3.2
9.5
1.7
1.3
2.4
<1
3.9
9.4
3.5
3.2
7.6
Carbon savings in
2025 (% of BAU)
24.2
14.7
24.1
20.7
Results – Global relevance
If 71–76% of energy‐related CO2 emissions come from cities (IPCC, 2014),
and these could fall by 14-24% through cost effective investments,
then very cautiously we might predict that at the global scale carbon savings
from such investments could generate reductions in the range of
10-18% in global anthropogenic energy-related CO2 emissions in 2025.
The Time to Regain BAU Levels
(The TREBLE Point) After Investment
Business as usual
Cost-effective
Business as usual
Cost-effective
2038
2040
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2022
2024
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
0%
2020
0%
2016
50%
2018
40%
2014
100%
2012
80%
2010
150%
2008
120%
2006
200%
2004
160%
2002
250%
2000
200%
2002
Kolkata: TREBLE point of 15
2000
Lima: TREBLE point of 7
The Time to Regain BAU Levels
(The TREBLE Point) After Investment
The TREBLE point measures the number of years for carbon emissions to
reach the BAU level predicted for 2025 after investment in low carbon
measures has taken place.
TREBLE point
Johor Bahru,
Malaysia
Lima,
Peru
Palembang,
Indonesia
Kolkata,
India
11
7
8
15
Investing in cost-effective low carbon measures would mean that these cities
reach BAU levels of emissions forecast for 2025 between 7 and 15 years later
than they would have done without those investments.
Conclusions
 There is potential for green growth to help cities in developing countries
achieve low carbon development paths. Exploiting this potential could unlock
progress on climate change at a global scale.
 Institutional innovations are likely to be needed to unlock this potential and to
govern early stage transitions.
 But green growth may only lead to partially decarbonised cities. And the
benefits of green growth are likely to be rapidly eroded by continued growth.
 Later stage transitions are likely to require structural changes in the form and
function of cities as well as their efficiency.
Further reading

Gouldson A, Colenbrander S, McAnulla F, Sudmant A, Kerr N, Sakai P, Hall S, Kuylenstierna JCI (2014). Exploring the Economic
Case for Low-Carbon Cities.New Climate Economy contributing paper. Available from: http://newclimateeconomy.report

Colenbrander S, Gouldson A, Sudmant AH, Papargyropoulou E, Chau LW, Ho CS (2015) Exploring the economic case for early
investment in climate change mitigation in middle-income countries: a case study of Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Climate and
Development. In press.

Colenbrander S, Gouldson A, Sudmant AH, Papargyropoulou E (2015) The economic case for low carbon development in rapidly
growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang, Indonesia. Energy Policy. 30 24-25 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.020

Gouldson A, Colenbrander S, Papargyropoulou E, Sudmant A (2014) The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Johor Bahru and
Pasir Gudang, Malaysia. Available from: http://www.lowcarbonfutures.org/sites/default/files/Malaysia%20CSC%20Report.pdf

Gouldson A, Colenbrander S, Sudmant A, Papargyropoulou E (2014) The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Palembang,
Indonesia. Available from: http://www.lowcarbonfutures.org/sites/default/files/Palembang%20-%20Full%20Report.pdf

Gouldson A, Kerr N, McAnulla F, Hall S, Colenbrander S, Sudmant A, Roy J, Sarkar S, Ghatak A, Chakravarty D, Ganguly D.
(2014) The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Kolkata, India. Available from:
http://www.climatesmartcities.org/sites/default/files/3710_Kolkata_Full_Report)Oct_2014_v12.pdf

Gouldson A, McAnulla F, Sakai P, Sudmant A, Castro S, Ramos C (2014) The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Lima-Callao, Peru.
Available from: http://www.climatesmartcities.org/sites/default/files/ELCC%20Lima%20Report%20Full%20English.pdf