Transcript Slide 1

key drivers of the energy future
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation
• demand mgmt.
Demand
Growth
Supply
Challenges
Technology
and policy
Environmental
Impacts
Security
of Supply
energy use grows with economic
development
energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)
400
US
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
350
300
Australia
250
Russia
France
Japan
UK
200
S. Korea
Ireland
150
100
Malaysia
Mexico
50
Greece
China
Brazil
0
0
India 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
Source: UN and DOE EIA
Russia data 1992-2004 only
30,000
35,000
40,000
demographic transformations
world population
10
8
6
4
2
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
1998
2050
2003
N-America
Oceania
N-America
2050
Oceania
Africa
Africa
S-America
S-America
Europe
Europe
8.9
billion
6.3
billion
Asia
source: United Nations
Asia
Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Global energy demand is projected to increase by
just over one-half between now and 2030 – an
average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 70% of this
increased
demand
comes
from
Global Energy
Demand
Growthdeveloping
by Region (1971-2030)
18,000
countries
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1971
OECD
1990
2004
Transition Economies
Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ
2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations
3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.
2015
2030
Developing Countries
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2006
annual primary energy demand
1971-2003
Source IEA, 200 (Excludes biomass)
growing energy demand is projected
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)
130
120
Energy Demand (bnboe)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971
Key:
2002
- transport
- power
2030
- industry
Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants
2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
- other sectors
Source: IEA WEO 2004
key drivers of the energy future
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation
• demand mgmt.
Demand
Growth
Supply
Challenges
Technology
and policy
Environmental
Constraints
Security
of Supply
• significant resources
• non-conventionals
US energy supply since 1850
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1850
1880
1910
1940
1970
2000
Source: EIA
global primary energy sources
50%
Nuclear
Hydro
45%
6.3%
6.0%
40%
36.4%
Coal
Oil
27.8%
Oil
35%
Coal
30%
25%
20%
23.5%
15%
Natural gas
10%
5%
0%
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
BAU
projection of primary
energy sources
(business as usual)
’04 – ’30 Annual
Growth Rate (%)
M toe
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Other
Renew ables
6.5
Biomass &
w aste
1.3
Hydro
2.0
Nuclear
0.7
Gas
2.0
Oil
1.3
Coal
1.8
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
2004
2010
2015
2030
Total
1.6
Note: ‘Other renewables’ include
geothermal, solar, wind, tide and
wave energy for electricity generation
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)
substantial global fossil resources
6,000
Reserves & Resources (bnboe)
Yet to Find
5,000
4,000
Unconventional
3,000
Unconventional
Proven
2,000
Yet to Find
Yet to Find
1,000
Proven
R/P Ratio
41 yrs.
Proven
R/P Ratio
67 yrs.
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.
key drivers of the energy future
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation
• demand mgmt.
Demand
Growth
Supply
Challenges
• significant resources
• non-conventionals
Technology
and policy
Environmental
Impacts
Security
of Supply
• dislocation of
resources
• import dependence
significant hydrocarbon resource
potential
800
600
400
800
Gas
200
0
Gas
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Oil
Coal
1200
South America
1000
800
600
400
Coal
400
200
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
800
600
400
1200
200
Asia
Pacific
1000
0
Gas
Coal
Africa
600
600
Middle East
1000
1000
800
800
1200
Oil
1200
800
600
400
200
0
Oil
400
Gas
Coal
200
0
Oil
200
Gas
FSU
1000
400
Resource Potential (bnboe)
0
Europe
600
Oil
200
Gas
Coal
0
Oil
Source: BP Data
1200
1000
Resource Potential (bnboe)
1000
1200
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Resource Potential (bnboe)
North America
1200
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Resource Potential (bnboe)
Oil, Gas and Coal Resources by Region (bnboe)
Gas
Coal
Key:
- conventional oil
- gas
- unconventional oil
- coal
dislocation of fossil fuel supply &
demand
3 Largets Energy M arkets
(N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific)
ROW
12%
22%
35%
39%
85%
90%
88%
78%
65%
61%
15%
10%
Consumption
Reserves
OIL
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006
Consumption
GAS
Reserves
Consumption
COAL
Reserves
key drivers of the energy future
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation
• demand mgmt.
Demand
Growth
Supply
Challenges
• significant resources
• non-conventionals
Technology
and policy
• local pollution
• climate change
Environmental
Impacts
Security
of Supply
• dislocation of resources
• import dependence
climate change and CO2 emissions
-
CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use
-
The global temperature is increasing
- other indicators of climate change
-
There is a plausible causal connection
- but ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system
- scientific case is complicated by natural variability,
ill-understood forcings
-
Impacts of higher CO2 are uncertain
- ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed
stabilization target (550 ppm)
- Reached by 2050 under BAU
-
Precautionary action is warranted
- What could the world do?
- Will we do it?
crucial facts about CO2 science
• The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate
– Emissions would have to drop to about half of their current
value by the end of this century to stabilize atmospheric
concentration at 550 ppm
– This in the face of a doubling of energy demand in the next
50 years (1.5% per year emissions growth)
• The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years
– The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st
Century
– Near-term emissions growth can be offset by greater longterm reductions
– Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of
concentration (20% emissions reduction buys 15 years)
some stabilization scenarios
Emissions
Concentration
greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by
source
Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0
two key energy considerations
– security & climate
Carbon Free
H2 for
Transport
High
Capture &
Storage
Concern over Future
Availability of Oil and Gas
CTL
Conv.
Biofuels
Hybrids
Capture &
Storage
Heavy
Oil
GTL
Adv.
Biofuels
Vehicle Efficiency
(e.g. light weighting)
C&S
Arctic
Ultra
Deep
Water
Enhanced
Recovery
CNG
Dieselisation
Key:
- supply side options
- demand side options
Low
Low
Concern relating to Threat
of Climate Change
High
corn ethanol is sub-optimal
• Production does not scale to material impact
– 20% of US corn production in 2006 (vs. 6% in 2000) was used to
make ethanol displacing ~2.5% of petrol use
– 17% of US corn production was exported in 2006
• The energy and environmental benefits are limited
– To make 1 MJ of corn ethanol requires 0.9 MJ of other energy
(0.4 MJ coal, 0.3 MJ gas, 0.04 MJ of nuclear/hydro, 0.05 MJ
crude)
– Net CO2 emission of corn ethanol ~18% less than petrol
• Ethanol is not an optimal fuel molecule
– Energy density, water, corrosive,…
• There is tremendous scope to improve (energy, economics,
emissions)
evaluating power options
power sector
High
Solar
Concern over Future
Availability of Oil and Gas
Unconventional
Gas
Hydrogen
Power
Nuclear
Wind
Biomass
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas CCGT
Key:
- power generation options
- supply option
Low
Low
Concern relating to Threat
of Climate Change
High