Transcript 2015 CSRs target mainly

The European Employment Strategy
and the Europan Semester
Federico Lucidi
DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
Outline of the presentation
1. The EES and EU2020 Strategy
2. The European Semester
3. An overview of 2015 CSRs
The European Employment Strategy
• The EES was introduced in 1997 by the Amsterdam
Treaty
• Its aim is the creation of more and better jobs
throughout Europe
• It now constitutes part of the Europe 2020
Strategy, and is implemented through the
European Semester
Treaty-based Objectives
MS and the Union shall […] develop a coordinated
strategy for employment:
• To promote a skilled, trained and adaptable
workforce…
• …and labour markets responsive to economic
change
• To achieve full employment, social progress, a
high level of protection
(art. 145, TUE)
Competences – who does what?
• Full respect of national competences on
employment policy;
• Member States define and implement their national
policies…
• …and coordinate with each other within the Council
at European level
• The Commission encourages cooperation of MS,
supports their common action, and intervenes to
complement their action if necessary
Europe 2020 strategy
• Launched in 2010
• Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth
• 5 headline targets + 7 flagship initiatives
• European Semester, enhanced by the Six-Pack
(2011) and the Two-Pack (2013)
• Mid-term review of EU2020 in March 2014
The EU2020 targets
•
Employment rate should be at 75% (2014: 69,2%)
•
Share of early school leavers should be under 10%
(2014: 11.1%)
•
Goal of 40% of younger generation having tertiary
degree or diploma (2014: 37.9%)
•
20 million fewer people at risk of poverty or social
exclusion (since 2010, the number of AROPE has risen
by 6 million. 24.8% of the EU-28 population)
European Semester - milestones
• Integrated guidelines including Employment guidelines,
proposed by the Commission and adopted by the Council
• Annual Growth Survey (AGS) and Alert Mechanism
Report (AMR), presented by the Commission (November)
• Joint Employment Report (JER) including a Scoreboard
of key employment and social indicators (November)
• Country Reports, published by the Commission (February)
• National Reform Programmes (NRPs), submitted by
Member States (April)
• Country-Specific Recommendations, proposed by the
Commission (May) and adopted by the Council (June-July)
2015 AGS - A coordinated approach
• Investment deficit and protracted employment
and social challenges
• Impact of an improved employment and social
situation on potential GDP growth.
Employment in the AGS 2015
Emphasis on:
•
•
•
•
Entrepreneurship
Investment in skills
Job creation
Mobility
… presenting a shift towards harnessing the
conditions for business to create new employment
2015 new approach – Streamlining and
focus on structural reforms
• "We should not waste the opportunity of this
economic recovery. I call on Member States to profit
from the momentum and deliver on structural reforms
that help those left behind get back into the labour
market"
M. Thyssen, EMPL Commissioner
• The European Semester 2015 focuses on the
structural reforms that are most essential for those
left behind during the crisis to get back in the labour
market
2015 Making it happen: the European Semester
Chapeau Communication:
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•
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First signs economic recovery, but unequal over Member States
Reform is taking place, but impact takes time
Challenge to keep reform drive on track
•
Economic tailwinds are breathing extra vitality into an otherwise
mild cyclical upswing
•
•
Labour markets are slowly improving
•
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Set to increase from 0.1% this year to 1.5% in 2016
The fiscal outlook continues to improve
•
•
EU unemployment down to 9.2% next year
HICP inflation to recover later this year
•
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EU GDP growth expected at 1.8% this year, 2.1% next
Deficit at 2.5% this year and debt on decreasing path
But policy has to address the underlying weaknesses
•
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Overcome the pre-crisis imbalances and the legacy of the crisis
Boost investment
Re-build the medium-term growth potential
Employment relevant 2015 CSRs
1. Skills, education and training
2. Youth
3. Protection of the vulnerable
4. Extending working life
5. Female LM participation
6. Health care systems
7. Labour taxation and shadow economy
8. ALMPs
9. LM segmentation and EPL
10. Wages and competitiveness
1.The role of education and training
Unemployment rate by educational attainment
Early school leaving: MT, RO
Access to education/E&T for
vulnerable groups: AT, BG,
CZ, HU, RO, SK
Educational outcomes: HU, LT,
MT, SK, UK
Higher education reform: CZ, LV
Teachers' training / attractiveness
of profession: CZ, HU, IT, MT, SK
LM relevance of education/ skill
mismatch: BE, EE, FI, IT, LT, UK
VET, apprenticeships, work-based
learning: EE, LV, IT, UK
Cooperation of education
with private sector: UK
Source: Eurostat
2. Youth
2015 CSRs target mainly:
Youth employment: IT, BG, ES, FI, PT, RO
Reach out to NEETs: BG, PT, RO
YG: Member States made considerable
progress but steps are needed towards its full
implementation
3. Protection of the vulnerable
At-risk-of poverty and social exclusion
Poverty and exclusion on the
rise in two third of the MS
Effectiveness of social
transfers:
ES, HR
Adequacy/ coverage of
unemployment benefits/ social
assistance, link to activation:
FR, HU, IE, HR, LT, LV, RO
Childhood poverty: IE
Disabled: EE
4. Extending working lives
Duration of working life (years, 2012) and
employment rate of older workers (%, 2013)
2015 CSRs target mainly on:
1. Restricting access to early retirement
FI, HR, LU
2. Adjust statutory retirement age to life
expectancy:
AT, BE, LU, MT
3. Actively enhance older workers'
employability
AT, BG, FI, SI
4. Harmonisation of retirement age men
and women:
AT, RO
5. Sustainability/adequacy pension
system:
AT, PT, SI, LT, FR, HR
Source: Eurostat
5. Female labour market participation
Gaps between male and female full-time equivalent employment
rates in 2014
Need for family
support
services:
AT, CZ, EE, IE,
RO, SK, UK
Source: Eurostat
6. Healthcare and long-term care
2015 CSRs focus
mainly on:
Public healthcare expenditure as % of GDP, 2012
1. Healthcare: BG,
CZ, ES, FI, HR,
IE, LV, RO, SI,
SK
2. Long-term care:
AT, SI
Source: Eurostat, OECD, WHO
7. Tax wedge remains high for low
income earners
Tax wedge and tax
disincentives for
low income earners:
AT, BE, (EE), CZ, DE, FR,
HU, LT, LV
Source: Eurostat
8. ALMPs and employment services
Long-term unemployment (%, left scale, 2012) and
activation support (LMP participants per 100 persons
wanting to work, right scale, 2011)
2015 CSRs target
mainly:
1. Enhance quality,
coverage, targeting
and effectiveness of
ALMP: BE, HU, IT,
PT, RO, SK
2. PES performance:
ES, IT, PT, RO
Source: Eurostat, LMP database
3. Improve
employability: EE,
FI, LT, LV, SI
9. Employment protection and labour
market segmentation
Share of temporary contracts (2013) and transition
from temporary to permanent (2012)
30.0
1. Labour market segmentation:
DE, FR, IT, PL
60
20.0
50
15.0
40
30
10.0
20
5.0
10
0
RO
LT
EE
LV
BG
UK
SK
LU
MT
BE
DK
CZ
AT
EL
IE
HU
IT
DE
EU28
HR
FI
SE
SI
FR
CY
NL
PT
ES
PL
0.0
% share temp workers (2012)
Source: European Commission
transitions temp to perm job (2012)
% transitions to perm jobs
70
25.0
% temporary Workers
2015 CSRs target mainly:
80
2. Employment protection
legislation: FR, IT
10. Wages and competitiveness
Unit labour costs in deficit and
surplus countries, euro-area groups
weighted averages, y-o-y % change
2015 CSRs target
mainly:
1. Wage setting,
development,
indexation and
flexibility:
BE, ES, FI, FR, HR,
IT, LU, PT
*Surplus
countries are: BE, DE, LU, NL, AT, FI
Source: Eurostat
2. Minimum wages, incl.
not detrimental to job
creation:
BG, FR, PT, RO, SI