Transcript Kenya: How to Overcome the Missing Data Problem

PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE
KENYA
Seminar on Independent Budget Analysis &
Transparency
“How to Overcome the Missing Data
Problem”
June 9 – 12, 2014
Venue: University of Ottawa, Canada
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Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) Kenya
PBO Kenya carries out independent budget,
finance and economic analysis to Committees of
Parliament.
 PBO is a non-partisan professional office
Primary function is to provide timely and
objective information and analysis concerning
the national budget and economy.
The objective of the office is “to enhance the
oversight role of Parliament by creating the
necessary capacity for scrutiny of the national
budget and the economy”
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PBO Kenya - Background
 Established in 2007 .
 It got a legal backing with the enactment of the
Fiscal Management Act, 2009 (FMA) which
established the PBO as an office in Parliamentary
Service Commission.
 The FMA was repealed in 2012 and an overarching
law, the Public Finance Management Act, 2012
(PFM) was enacted.
 The PFM law re-established the PBO enhancing its
roles and stipulating the budget process in line with
the Constitution of Kenya 2010.
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Structure of PBO Kenya
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CALENDAR OF EVENTS OF PBO KENYA
Activity
Sub- Activity
Timeline
Preparation of options for
Preparation of the Budget
economic outlook, prospects and Options
opportunities
January
Review of government’s policy
Analysis of the Budget Policy
options and budget assumptions Statement
February
Review of the budget proposals
Analysis of the estimates of
revenue and expenditure
May – June
Preparation of MP’s Budget
Watch
June
Prepare report on public views
concerning the budget
May
Conduct Public Hearings on the
budget estimates
Conduct analysis of proposed
Analysis of the Finance Bill
taxation measures and tax policy
changes
June
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CALENDAR OF EVENTS OF THE PBO CONT.
Activity
Sub- Activity
Timeline
Review of government’s
macroeconomic assumptions
Analysis of the Budget
Review and Outlook Paper
October
Carrying out performance
monitoring and analysis for
oversight
Tracking of Revenue
performance
Quarterly
Expenditure Tracking
Quarterly
Macroeconomic
forecasting
Continuous
Bill Analysis
As need arises
Thematic research papers
As need arises
Research on urgent issues
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PBO KENYA PUBLICATIONS
 A Guide to the Budget Process
 The MP’s Budget Watch
 Bills/Motion Analysis and Cost Estimates Reports
 Public Expenditures trend data bank
 Regular Budget Reporting Analysis.
 The Budget Options
 Thematic Research Papers
 Parliament Budget Office Model
Contacts:
Director, PBO Kenya
Website: www.parliament.go.ke
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +254-20-2133074
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MISSING DATA PROBLEM
 Missing data problem occur when no data value is
stored for the variable in an observation.
 It
is a common occurrence and can have a
significant effect on the conclusions that can be
drawn from the data.
Missing data can occur because of non response
No information is provided for several items or
whole unit.
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SOURCES OF DATA
 Economic Survey Reports
 Statistical Abstract
 Annual Sector Working Group Reports
 Annual Expenditure and Revenue Estimate Books
 Public Expenditure Review Analysis Report
 Public Debt Reports
 Quarterly Economic and Budget Review Reports (QEBR)
 Monthly Exchequer Release Reports
 Audit Reports
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PBO MACROECONOMIC MODEL (PBOM)
• A data driven macroeconomic analysis and
forecasting tools
used by PBO Kenya in its
regular work to enhance the quality of its
reports.
• Model is comprehensive enough to describe the
whole economy.
• Model is tailored to meet the needs of
parliament in playing its budget oversight role.
• The model is critical in informing budgetary
formulation process e.g. macroeconomic
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projections.
THE BASIC PBOM STRUCTURE
• Model built along the aggregate demand-aggregate supply
framework
• Real side of the economy contains 4 types of economic
agents;
a)
Domestic production (private firms, parastatals)
b)
Households
c)
Government
d)
Rest of the World (RoW)
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THE BASIC PBOM STRUCTURE…..Cont
Model contains 3 types of markets
a)
Labor market
b)
Product market
c)
Financial market
 Model is demand driven in the short run with
multiplier effects through consumption and
investment
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POVERTY MODULE IN THE PBOM
The PBOM contains a poverty module
The poverty module which is used in
combination with PBOM
Simulate the effects of macro-economic
developments and poverty reduction strategies
on the number of poor households.
Welfare is measured in terms of total household
expenditure
The poverty module also gives crude estimates of
the income tax revenues and can therefore be
used to analyze and monitor effects of policies
and developments on income tax revenues
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MISSING DATA CHALLENGES
 Lack of right of access to government data
 Data exists but is scattered in the various Ministries,
Departments and Agencies of Government
 Data is fairly historical, updated data not readily
available.
 Available data is at a highly aggregated levels.
 Most of the existing data is in paper based form and
not digital form therefore hard to retrieve
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MISSING DATA CHALLENGES……..Cont
Limited information sharing and collaboration
among MDAs, work tends to be fairly competitive
in nature
Kenya Open Data Initiative launched in 2011 but
has not taken off since the launch.
Access to information shrouded in bureaucracy.
Security/military
data-highly
classified
(Top
Secret)
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OVERCOMING MISSING DATA CHALLENGES
 Building Informal Networks
 Nurturing complementarities NOT competition
with professional colleagues
 Baseline surveys.
 Proxy modelling
 Personal judgement/Intuition
 Build
on
existing
competencies
and
experiences.
 Undertaking joint publication & peer review
Parliamentary forums
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Thank You – Q & A
.
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