Transcript KZN based PDI`s www.southafrica.net

Presentation to the Portfolio Committee
February 2003
Notes: 2002* represents projected arrivals for the year
Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis
www.southafrica.net
Tourism in South Africa boomed in 2002…
•Foreign tourist arrivals to South Africa increased by
11.1% (642,215) in 2002
•North America up 9.2% (18,263)
•Australasia up 14.5% (10,833)
•Asia up 20.7% (30,390)
•Europe up 24.2% (244,411)
•Africa up 7.8% (321,830)
•Overseas arrivals up 20.1% (301,797)
Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis
www.southafrica.net
South Africa has outperformed the global industry by
7 % in 2002.
Growth in tourist arrivals (1998 - 2002*)
World
South Africa
12%
10%
% growth
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
1999
Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis
www.southafrica.net
2000
2001
2002
Arrivals from South Africa’s two primary overseas
markets enjoyed growth of 24.1% (UK) and 22.1%
(Germany) in 2002
Foreign tourist arrivals from the UK
(1998 - 2002*)
Foreign tourist arrivals from Germany
(1998 - 2002*)
500,000
300,000
450,000
400,000
Number of tourists
Number of tourists
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
0
0
1998
1999
2000
Source:Stats SA, SATourism Analysis
www.southafrica.net
2001
2002
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002*
Tourist arrivals from Africa increased by 7.8% and
tourist arrivals from the USA increased by 7.0%
Foreign tourist arrivals from the USA
(1998 - 2002*)
4,500,000
185,000
4,400,000
180,000
Number of tourists
Number of tourists
Foreign tourist arrivals from Africa
(1998 - 2002*)
4,300,000
4,200,000
4,100,000
4,000,000
175,000
170,000
165,000
160,000
3,900,000
155,000
1998
1999
2000
Source:Stats SA, SATourism Analysis
www.southafrica.net
2001
2002
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
With the exception of January 2002, arrivals to SA
have outperformed the US outbound market trend.
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
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% growth
US outbound growth compared to SA arrivals growth
% GROWTH OF US OUTBOUND MARKET
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% GROWTH OF US ARRIVALS TO SA
Markets in decline over 2002 were…
•UAE, down 14.7%
(248 tourists)
Foreign tourist arrivals from Argentina
(1998 - 2001)
•Lesotho, down
9.7%(124,855
tourists)
•Argentina, down
63.9%(9,081)
2,500
Number of tourists
•Reunion, down 6.7%
(61 tourists)
3,000
2,000
2001
2002
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jan
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Feb
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Forecasts and targets – discussion table
GROWTH OVER 2002 – BASE YEAR
2002 Base
year
2%
5%
7%
7.5%
10%
6,373,166
6,500,629
6,691,824
6,819,288
6,851,153
7,010,483
492,654
502,507
517,287
527,140
529,603
541,919
GDP
(R’000 000)
72.5
74.0
76.1
77.6
77.9
79.8
Total foreign
direct spend in SA
(R’000 000)*
50.8
51.8
53.3
54.4
54.6
55.9
Arrivals
Jobs
•This is a multiplication table only and not a scientific projection
•2002 indicators are multiplied by a range of possible growth percentages to illustrate growth potential
•Structural barriers are ignored
Notes: *This has been modelled by the SRU. See Appendix 1.
www.southafrica.net
Relationship between arrivals, jobs and GDP
•No direct
relationship
between jobs and
arrivals
•1998 and 1999,
both jobs and
arrivals were in
decline
•2000, jobs
improved and
arrivals declined
•2001, jobs and
arrivals
decreased
Relationship between arrivals, jobs and GDP
20%
% change
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1998
1999
% Change in arrivals
www.southafrica.net
2000
2001
% change in jobs
2002
% change in GDP
So what does all this mean ?
• Uncertain relationship between GDP, jobs and arrivals
• Possible reasons for counter-intuitive observations:
• Possible time lags where an increase in arrivals precedes GDP growth which
precedes job creation
• Structural inefficiencies in the tourism industry resulting in a non-translation
of increased tourist volume to increased GDP to increased job creation
• Areas of intervention
• Policy intervention
• Industry structure intervention
• Need to develop a thorough understanding of industry dynamics, flow of
funds and industry measures
• Possible tools are TSA’s and in-depth cluster analysis
www.southafrica.net
Indaba 2003
•Indaba remains South African Tourism’s premier trade show and marketing
event.
•The 2003 Indaba will be held in Durban from 3-6 May 2003.
•The Tourism indaba in the world’s 6th largest travel and tourism trade show
30000
25000
Number of visitors
ITB
10,135 exhibitors
123,400 visitors
BIT
400 Exhibitors
54,000 Visitors
WTM
TOP RESA
20000
CIS
15000
10000
5000
POW WOW
Indaba
PATA
0
0
1000
ATE
2000
3000
Number of exhibitors
www.southafrica.net
4000
5000
6000
Indaba 2003
•In 2002 there were 212 smmes represented
•This was a 51% increase from 2001
•SATourism aims to improve on this for 2003.
•Numbers will be available after indaba audited results are
released
36.25% of the expenses for the show were spent with PDI
companies bearing in mind that a large majority of the budget
goes to International Marketing, Venue Hire etc – items which are
not South African PDI Companies
Of the PDI Spend 31% was spent on KZN based PDI’s
www.southafrica.net
Indaba 2003
•Online registration up 40% this year…
•More focus on key markets
•Over 2000 sqm more space made availavle by the ICC
•South African Tourism aims to make the 2003 indaba the 5th
largest Travel and tourism show in the world…
www.southafrica.net
Thank you
www.southafrica.net
appendix
www.southafrica.net
Tourist arrivals from Lesotho, SA’s largest source market, have been in
decline since 1999, due to structural issues. The decline slowed in 2002 and
showed signs of levelling off by September 2002 and recovery followed…
Change in volume of arrivals from Lesotho
(Jan 1999- Oct 2002)
50,000
40,000
Number of tourists
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
www.southafrica.net
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
Oct-99
Jul-99
Apr-99
Jan-99
-40,000