Transcript Presentation - WordPress.com

Large-scale land acquisitions for agricultural investment:
Trends and issues
Lorenzo Cotula
Senior Researcher – Law and Sustainable Development
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
Setting the scene
 Spate of media reports worldwide
 Little systematic empirical data
 FAO/IFAD/IIED study; IIED involvement in World
Bank-led study
 Trends and drivers, land tenure arrangements, land
access impacts – focusing on sub-Saharan Africa
 Ongoing literature review, qualitative interviews,
systematic inventories in 6 countries
Outline
1.
Trends and drivers
2.
Can local people benefit?
1.
Trends and drivers
2.
Can local people benefit?
FDI flows
FDI stock as % GDP
40
esp extractives, and policy
reform
45
40
30
35
25
30
20
25
20
15
% GDP
 Driven by commodity demand,
50
35
$ billion

A fast evolving context:
Investment flows to sub-Saharan Africa
Major increase since 2000
15
10
10
 Highly uneven distribution
5
0
factors likely to stay
1990
1980
2007
1990
2005
35
30
$Billion (nominal)
 But, longer term, stuctural
0
1980
 Likely to slow with economic
downturn
5
25
20
15
10
5
0
Uganda
Tanzania
Senegal
Nigeria
Namibia
Mozambique
Mali
Kenya
Ghana
Chad
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Source: UNCTAD
Growing agricultural investment – agrifood
 Long term projections re: global food demand; food
price hikes 2008, concerns about food security
 Land acquisitions in Africa, South East Asia, Central Asia
as policy and market reaction
 Some governments promote acquisitions overseas - food
importing, official reserves (oil, trade)
 Gulf states in Sudan – geographical and cultural
proximity
 Private investors (agribusiness, finance) - expect
significant returns and/or land value increases
 Lonrho deals; Jarch Capital deal; private fund activity
in parts of Africa
 Why Africa? Investors: “Inexpensive land”, “favourable
climates”, “labour available”


Government
Acquirer
Provider
Government
Private



Private
QIA deals in
Sudan,
Indonesia,
Cambodia,
Vietnam
…




DaewooMadagascar;
Hadco-Sudan
…
Jarch Capital
(Sudan)
…
Other driving forces – biofuels, carbon markets
Government targets, oil prices (though
decline after summer 2008)
Lack of systematic data but significant
investments in Africa
Mozambique: 16 biofuels projects >
1000 ha, 2.18 m ha total, $3 bn
investment (Nhantumbo and Salomao,
forthcoming)
Source: IEA 2006



 Carbon markets: voluntary
markets, REDD negotiations?
1.
Trends and drivers
2.
Can local people benefit?
[Lenders, insurers]

Polarised debates; assess risks &
opportunities, develop ways to
maximise local voice and benefit


Major risks: asset loss, food insecurity,
marginalisation...
But also opportunities: harnessing
capital, know-how, market access...

Terms and conditions key – What
business models? What benefit sharing?
Who decides and how?

Not just investor-state deal, triangle
with local resource users (decisions,
benefits)
Host state agencies
Investor(s)
NGOs
NGOs
Local resource users
Security of local land rights


“Africa has most of the underutilised
fertile land in the world” (private fund
manager); but population pressures,
need for data on land availability
Secure rights key to minimise arbitrary
dispossession and maximise local
benefit
1960
2000
Population density (UNEP, 2004)
Local land rights may be undermined by
inadequate recognition, major power asymmetries...
Need to step up efforts to secure local land rights
and support local people get a better deal
 Recognition of local rights, accessible recording,
legal literacy training, support in negotiations...