Transcript Monitoring Economic Development in Morocco

Monitoring Economic Development
in Morocco
Mohamed TAAMOUTI
International Forum on Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges
27-29 September 2011, Beijing
Outline
 Moroccan economic structure is changing
 Monitoring economic changes
 Monitoring employment
 Monitoring economic activity
 Main challenges
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Moroccan economic structure is
changing (1)
 Contribution to GDP
2010
1998
Agriculture;
14%
Agriculture;
18%
Services;
50%
Industry;
25%
Services;
54%
Industry;
27%
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Moroccan economic structure is
changing (2)
 Some sectors are emerging (% of VA)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Construction, public works
Telecommunications
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Moroccan economic structure is
changing (3)
 Employment structure (%)
47
25
46
45
20
43
42
15
41
Agriculture
44
40
10
39
38
5
37
Industry
Constr. Pub. Wor.
Services
Agriculture
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Moroccan economic structure is
changing (4)
 Hidden impact of the crisis
% of temporary jobs in
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Employment
New job creations
4,1
4,0
4,4
4,8
5,0
5,1
5,1
5,2
5,9
7,0
7,6
-87,1
-18,9
21,6
14,0
28,2
25,0
5,2
11,4
53,5
132,4
53,3
Unemployment
rate (%)
13,4
12,3
11,3
11,5
10,8
11,1
9,7
9,8
9,6
9,1
9,1
How do we monitor economic changes?
A continuously developing and improving national
statistical system
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Statistical law in 1968
A decentralized system
A tradition of secured funding of statistical activities
Uses International standards (ILO, SCN93,
classifications, BoP, financial statistics, etc.)
 Subscribed to IMF’s SDDS since 2005
 Statistical capacity indicators of the WB (2010) :
 Overall score : 76% (65% for all developing countries)
 Methodology : 90% (56% for all developing countries)
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Monitoring Employment
 A regular national employment survey :
 covering annually a sample of 1% of Moroccan
households ;
 captures several aspects related to labor force,
employment, unemployment, under employment, etc.
 The survey serves also as a platform for
monitoring some basic social indicators (access
to drinking water, electricity, etc.)
 The results are released on a quarterly and
yearly basis.
 Employment is also captured through population
censuses and different household surveys.
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Monitoring economic activity
 A set of regular business, agriculture, trade,
financial, … data collection.
 Economic census, Agriculture census;
 Yearly business surveys covering all economic sectors ;
 Public investment survey every 5 years;
 The yearly business survey is deepened every 5
years to capture the interrelations between different
sectors : “economic structure survey”
 The results of the “economic structure survey”
serve for GDP base year change every 5 years.
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Monitoring economic activity
 On the basis of all censuses, surveys and
administrative data : National accounts are compiled
following SCN93
 For some sectors satellite accounts are (or will be)
compiled (tourism, agriculture, education, forests).
 A satellite account for households will be compiled
on the basis of a new time use survey
 For emerging sectors, new surveys are launched to
better take them into consideration in national
accounts (NGO survey, time use survey).
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Monitoring economic activity
The informal sector
 For a more comprehensive coverage of economic
activity in Morocco, informal sector surveys are
carried out every 5 years.
 The objective : a more precise estimate of the
contribution of this sector to employment and GDP.
39%
37%
1998
2007
16%
Non Agr. employment
14%
GDP
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Main Challenges (1)
 Improve and formalize coordination between
different components of the NSS.
 Promote evidence based decision-making through
promoting the use of statistics.
 Develop data production at sub national levels.
 Development of administrative data.
 Development of business registers.
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Main Challenges (2)
 Improving business surveys response rate.
 Developing a quality assurance framework.
 Developing environmental data collection
framework and develop environmental accounting.
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Thank You
谢谢
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