Transcript here - John Kaye

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The Greens alternative
Saving the planet and creating jobs
John Kaye
Greens NSW MP
March 2013
vs
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Where are the jobs?
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The 'whole in the ground' economy
• Mining eats manufacturing jobs:
▫ The rising $A
▫ Cheaper imports
▫ More expensive exports
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The Resource Curse
• Mineral exports drive up A$
▫ Payments for minerals in A$
  increases demand for $A
  pushes up value of $A
▫ Interest rates kept high
 to attract foreign investment capital
 But also drive up A$
 compared to US$, Euro, Yen with much lower
interest rates
• Other industries cannot compete in high A$
▫ Especially manufacturing
• Sovereign wealth funds can help
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Pop goes the boom
• Commodity prices fluctuate
• E.g. coal 2009 - 2012
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Can't trust commodity prices
• Mining tax debacle
• Commodities price index (2000 -2011):
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Commodities:
the roller-coaster that eats jobs
• Don't add much value in Australia
▫ Real wealth generated in other economies
▫ Does not add to advanced skills
• Vulnerable to mechanisation
▫ Decline in employment
• Wealth not held in Australia
▫ Mining industry 83% foreign owned
▫ $265 bn profits over next 5 years
 $50 bn  overseas
 $205 bn  more mining  more foreign ownership
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The mining boom: not much in it for us
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Resource export economy and
neoliberalism gone mad
• Deregulated:
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Currency
Labor market
Finance sector
Industry
Environment
• Jobs boom and bust
▫ Shortage of skilled labour in mining areas
▫ High unemployment (e.g. Illawarra)
▫ Job insecurity (Western Sydney)
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The ‘real’ economics of coal
• Maules Creek coal mine
• 324 million tonnes of coal
▫ x $100/tonne sale price = $32.4 bn value
• 877 million tonnes CO2
▫ x $80/tonne = $68.8 bn climate damage
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Uncertain future
• Resource depletion
▫ 25 years of known economic iron ore
• Long term demand can change
▫ Coal
 Climate policy
 Cheaper renewables
▫ Large capital investment
• Deskills workforce
• Concentrates wealth
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The Green alternative
• Invest in a new clean, smart economy
▫ Climate crisis  transition to clean energy
▫ Growing inequality  rebuild public education
▫ Declining cities  reinvent public transport
• Why?
▫ Save the planet
▫ Tame the economy
▫ Create jobs
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Wind, sun, coal and jobs
Jobs in NSW
Coal-fired electricity
7,000
(including mining)
Renewables & efficiency
73,800
Jobs in NSW
Aluminum smelting
1,500
Rooftop solar
5,400
John Kaye Greens NSW MP
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How?
• Regulation:
▫ Close coal-fired power stations
▫ Energy efficiency
• Public investment
▫ Private capital too slow, risk-averse
• Industry policy
▫ Developing and locating new jobs
▫ Smart protection for new industries for export
• Unleash the power of collective economic action
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Won’t we all be ruined? – No!
• NSW coal electricity vs transition to renewables:
▫ Coal:
 7,000 jobs x $35,000 tax revenue/job
 =$ 245 m in tax – subsidies
▫ Renewables
 73,800 x $30,000 tax revenue/job
 =$2,214 m in tax
 Plus more jobs in export
• Similar figures in transport etc.
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How to get there?
• Change the debate
▫ Reject neoliberal assertions
 Markets not always right
 Deregulation does not always deliver wealth
 Private investment not always superior
• Focus on real jobs and collective wealth
▫ Green economy delivers
 More and better share of jobs
 Better security
 Greater opportunities for Australia’s future