Transcript Rossetti_FLAGSHIP

Forward Looking Driving Change
FLAGSHIP final meeting
Brussels, 16 December 2015
Thinking ahead sustainability
Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO
European Commission, DG RTD*
[email protected]
* Personally speaking
Foresight and Forecast
Looking ahead: A rich vocabulary
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Foresight
Modelling
Forecast
Vision
Horizon scanning
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Source: D. Rossetti
Trend monitoring
Technology Assessment
Roadmapping
Impact Assessment
"Prospective"
…
Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative
FLAGSHIP
Foresight - Vision
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To anticipate new societal challenges / Scenarios
To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts
To scan the « weak signals » and the « wild cards » including
the potential technological and social breakthroughs
To provide a common European vision
Policy-relevant and imaginative
… but « rhetoric »
Delphi method and Experts opinions, public opinion perception
(Eurobarometer), participatory workshops (EASW, CSO)
Source: D. Rossetti
Forecasting - Modelling
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To generate the evidences able to support priority setting
To quantify several alternatives
To evaluate the economic, social and environmental impacts of
proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)
To roadmap and draw a strategy
Useful for planning and operational
… but « technical »
Top-down (econometric, CGE) and Bottom-up (technology-rich)
models, accounting frames and databases
Source: D. Rossetti
EU Foresight and Forecast at EC
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FAST, Cellule de Prospective, BEPA, EPSC, JRC (IPTS)
DG RTD and CNECT (Research projects in Foresight)
Multiannual Financial Perspectives
Long-term planning (SF, FP,…) and Europe 2020
2050 Roadmaps (Low carbon economy, Energy,
Transport)
EFFLA & RISE Expert Groups - DG RTD
ESPAS
Source: D. Rossetti
The Trends and Tensions
World systemic changes
Source: J. Fernandez, MIT
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World and EU GDP
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)
Demographic changes
1950
2015
2050
India
372
1 349
1 692
Brazil
54
204
223
USA
158
326
403
China
551
1 404
1 296
EU 28
377
508
516
In million people
Source: UN, World Population Prospects and Worldometers
Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”
Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en
Europe, mais certains ne le savent pas
Paul-Henri Spaak
Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif
Europe is at a
crossroads: either
we keep and
strengthen the role
as one of the main
global actors, or
we become an
“increasingly
irrelevant
outgrowth on the
Asian continent”
Inequality
Source: São Paulo, picture from D. Bounds blog
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EU ageing population
The number of people
over 65 will double in 50
years (from 85 million in
2008 to 151 million in
2060)
The "oldest old" (85 and
over) will almost triple
X 1000
Source: EC, DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)
The share of health
expenditures in the EU is
expected to increase from
8% of GDP today to 13% in
2060
Global extraction
Today
70 Bt
Source: OECD; Behrens; WMM, Global Insight, Ellen Mac Arthur Foundation – Circular economy team
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EU oil consumption and production
EU imports 55% of
its energy needs
Source: Grande Reportagem
World challenges
Tokyo
34 M inh.
Seoul
25 M inh.
New Delhi
23 M inh.
Sao Paolo
21 M inh.
EU challenges
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Ageing and shrinking cities
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Built environment and
cultural heritage
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NIMBY and BANANA (Build
Absolutely Nothing
Anywhere Near Anything)
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Source: UN-HABITAT
Source: D. Rossetti
The Transitions
A new pact between Man and Nature
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EC: Our life insurance, our natural capital
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Michel Serres: Le contrat naturel
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Edgard Morin: Méthode ("terre-patrie")
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Pope Francis: Laudato Si' (integral ecology)
Source: D. Rossetti
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World and EU targets
World
target
EU
targets
COP21 target (13/12/2015 with 196 States) :
Limit of the GHG emissions at 2°C and aspiration of 1.5°C
2020
2030
Source: UN and EC
-20 %
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
-40 %
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
20%
Renewable
Energy
27 %
Renewable
Energy
20 %
Energy
Efficiency
27 %
Energy
efficiency
Individual empowerment
Personalized
medicine
Cameron, Thorning-Schmidt, Obama
Micro CHP
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Self-driving one person car
Proprietas vs. Usus
Collaborative economy
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Unifying power of Internet & smart phones
New economy and younger generation
Less ownership (purchasing)
More access (renting, sharing, swapping)
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Source: D. Rossetti (Pictures from Vellib, Barcelona, Hambourg)
New economy
Economies of scale but more and more:
… Economies of scope (same platforms allowing
savings and profits)
 … Economies of network (finance, media, politics,
philanthropy)
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Source: D. Rossetti
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Policy messages vs.
technological progress
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Malthus "Essay on the principle of population"
Meadows Report "The Limits to Growth"
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
Michelangelo
Source: D. Rossetti
dpaonthenet
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Habits, wished obsolescence and price
€ 10-150
€ 200,000-300,000
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Source: Energy-future.com,
Max Mara
Malthus revenge
Replacing “population” with “consumption” in
the quote:
“The power of population is so superior to the
power of the earth to produce subsistence for
man, that premature death must in some shape
or other visit the human race ”
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050, Luc Soete
Conclusions: A genuine EU paradigm
Conclusions: Beyond GDP & Happiness
$ 179 M
Source: P. Picasso, Les femmes d'Alger, Christies, NY, 11/5/2015
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