Transcript Powerpoint file for Chapter 11 (Policies)

Energy and the New Reality, Volume 1:
Energy Efficiency and the
Demand for Energy Services
Chapter 11: Policies to Reduce the Demand for Energy
L. D. Danny Harvey
[email protected]
Publisher: Earthscan, UK
Homepage: www.earthscan.co.uk/?tabid=101807
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The demand for energy depends on the demand
for energy services x the energy intensity of
providing the services. The demand for energy
services in turn depends on population, GDP/P,
the cost of energy and lifestyle (which is affected
by the cost of energy)
Limiting Future Population
• The only acceptable way to do this is to reduce
fertility rates
• Fertility rates can be reduced by
- reducing the demand for large families
- increasing the educational level of and economic
opportunities for women, so as to delay marriage
- providing contraceptive and family planning
services
• Large declines in fertility rates have been
achieved in such diverse countries as China,
Mexico, Iran and Tunisia during the past 2-3
decades
Figure 11.1: Fertility rates (children per women)
Reducing the Rate of Growth of GDP/P
• GDP is used as a proxy for human happiness
• However, once basic human needs are satisfied,
increasing income increases our happiness
largely by making as wealthier compared to
other people
• As it is impossible to simultaneously make
everyone wealthier relative to everyone else,
trying to promote human happiness by
promoting economic growth (once basic human
needs are met) is doomed to failure while
increasing environmental destruction that will
ultimately cause great misery
3 key strategies for reducing the growth
of GDP/P while increasing human wellbeing and happiness
• Promoting alternatives to GDP as an indicator of
“progress”
• Forming alliances between governments and
counter-consumption groups (such as voluntary
“Simplicity Circles”) in engaging the public in a
dialogue about alternative ways of thinking
• Promoting a shift to shorter working hours
• Promoting greater product longevity
Hours Worked Per year per Employee
Figure 11.2 Hours worked per employee per year
2500
2000
1500
Nordic Europe
1000
Continental Europe
Australia
Canada
500
UK
US
Japan
0
1945
1965
1985
Year
2005
Figure 11.3 Decrease in hours worked per year
Decadal Decrease in Hours Worked (%)
20
1950 to 1960
1960 to 1970
15
1970 to 1980
1980 to 1990
1990 to 2000
10
5
0
Nordic Europe
-5
-10
Australia
UK
Japan
Decrease in Hours Worked (%)
Figure 11.4 Decrease in hours worked per year
35
1950 to 2000
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Strategies for making it easier for people to
choose to work fewer hours and for companies
to hire part-time employees
• Greater investment in public transit (so that fewer
people need to own cars) and in affordable housing,
thereby reducing the expenses that need to be
supported by working long hours
• Reduction in the inequality of income (through more
progressive taxation)
• Public financing of health care and disability
insurance so that companies are indifferent as to
whether they have, for example, 10 people working
full time vs 20 people working half time
See:
http://www.storyofstuff.com/
... it is brilliant!
Increasing the price of energy
Figure 11.5 Correlation between electricity price and
electricity intensity
0.14
Spain
Italy
Average electricity price 1997
(US$-PPP95/ kWh)
0.12
Japan
Austria
Denmark
0.10
Germany
Netherlands
France
0.08
Belgium
Australia
United States
0.06
New Zealand
Finland
Sweden
0.04
0.02
0.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Electricity Intensity 1997 (kWh/ 1000 US$-1995PPP)
Source: Verbruggen (2006, Energy Policy 34, 1310–1317, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03014215)
Promoting Energy Efficiency
• Standards and regulations
• Training programs for architects and building
design engineers
• Development of comprehensive building retrofit
programs (spanning 30-40 years)
• Removing regulatory barriers
• Voluntary agreements with large industrial
enterprises
• Technical assistance for small industrial
enterprises
Promoting diets with less meat
• Remove all subsidies for livestock and fishery
operations
• Impose stricter environmental and labour
standards on livestock operations (thereby
increasing private costs while reducing public
costs)
• Educate the public about the health risks of highmeat diets
Research and Development
• The technologies needed to achieve dramatic
reductions in energy use already exist
• However, there is still room for research and
development to improve existing technologies,
and especially to reduce costs
Key areas where R&D could be
quite helpful are
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vacuum insulation panels (expensive at present)
Phase change materials
Solar air conditioning
Batteries and super-capacitors for PHEVs
Development of light-weight yet strong materials
Fundamental research pertaining to chemical
processes and nanotechnology
• Research on how to maintain current yields in
low-energy organic farming systems
Figure 11.6a: Energy R&D by IEA countries
9000
USA
8000
Japan
Germany
7000
France
Millions PPP 2006$
Italy
6000
Netherlands
Spain
UK
5000
Canada
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Figure 11.6b: Energy R&D by IEA countries
12000
Nuclear
10000
Fossil Fuels
Energy Efficiency
Millions PPP 2006$
Renewable Energy
8000
Other
6000
4000
2000
0
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Fig 11.7: Energy R&D by IEA Countries in 2006
Other
15%
Electricity &
Energy Storage
5%
Hydrogen & Fuel
Cells 6%
Nuclear
39%
Renewable
Energy
11%
Energy
Efficiency
13%
Fossil
12%
Total = $ 10.4 billion
Rebound Effect
• This is the tendency for initial energy savings due to
improved efficiency to be reduced for the following
reasons
- a direct rebound effect due to the cost of energy
services decreasing because less energy is needed
(so that we demand more)
- an indirect rebound effect due to spending the
money saved from energy efficiency on other
activities or services (which always require some
energy)
- a reduction in the real cost of energy due to
reduced demand
- transformational effects – changes in consumer
preferences, alterations of social institutions and
changes in the organization of production
Depending on economic circumstances, the
energy use under consideration, and who is doing
the estimating and how, the estimated rebound
effect ranges from 1% to 25%
(that is, the initial energy savings is reduced by 1%
to 25%)
Reducing the rebound effect
• Push energy efficiency measures to the point
where there is no net cost savings (i.e., where
energy cost savings just offsets the cost of
financing the efficiency measures)
• Promote efficiency measures that cost rather
than save money, but that yield non-monetary
benefits (i.e., high performance windows
because they look nice and are easier to clean
because the can be inverted)
• Increase the tax on energy as overall energy
efficiency improves
The dilemma of economic growth
• The current world economy is structurally dependent
on growth for stability, yet endless growth threatens
climate catastrophe (and, to the extent that it is
dependent on cheap energy and easy-to-extract
mineral resources, is not sustainable)
• Tim Jackson, in Prosperity Without Growth: “Virtually
no attempt has been made to develop an economic
model that doesn’t rely on long term growth ...we have
no model of how common macro-economic
‘aggregates’ (production, consumption, investment,
trade, capital stock, public spending ...) behave when
capital doesn’t accumulate... In short, there is no
macro-economics of sustainability and there is an
urgent need for one”
• Peter Victor in Managing Without Growth:
Slower by Design, Not Disaster: “Economic
growth is the policy objective against which all
other proposals must be judged... education
policy... transportation policy ... immigration
policy ... support for the arts ....”
• We need instead to make reducing GHG
emissions the policy objective against which all
other policies are judged (at least in part)