December 2011 - Maricopa Community Colleges

Download Report

Transcript December 2011 - Maricopa Community Colleges

Occupational Administrators Council
Economic and Workforce
Overview
John Catapano
Research and Communications Coordinator
Center for Workforce Development
December 7th, 2011
1
U.S. Economic Overview
The Recovery is Proceeding at a Snail’s Pace
(And it wasn’t much of a recovery to begin with)
Is a “Double Dip” on the Horizon?
2
Growth in Real GDP
2007 Q1 to 2011 Q3 (annualized)
3
Why Did the Recovery Stall?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stock market volatility
European debt crisis
Depressed housing market
Banks have been reluctant to
lend
Impact of healthcare reform
2012 elections
Debt ceiling debate
Concern about the deficit/debt
End of federal stimulus
• Less government spending
• High oil and commodity prices
• Turmoil in the Middle East
• Japanese earthquake and
tsunami
• Extension of Bush tax cuts
• Concerns over future taxes and
regulations
• Political polarization
• Downgrade of U.S. debt
4
U.S. Private Sector Employment Growth
January 2007 to Present (month over month, in thousands)
5
Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions
6
Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions
7
U.S. Unemployment Rate
January 2000 to Present
8
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
January 2007 to Present (in thousands)
9
Consumer Confidence
1978 to Present
10
Negative Jobs Feedback Loop
Limited Job
Growth
Business
Uncertainty
Modest
Consumer
Spending
Little Job
Security
Depressed
Consumer
Confidence
11
Corporate Profits After Taxes
1960 to Present (in billions)
12
Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions
1960 to Present (in billions)
13
Job Losses and Gains Since Dec-07 Peak
(in thousands)
Recession
Recovery
Trade, Trans, Util,
Construction &
Other Serv
Mining
Prof & Bus Serv,
Manufacturing
Financial
Information
Activities
Leisure &
Hospitality
Education &
Health Serv
Government
14
Labor Force Participation Rate
Selected Groups, 1960 to Present
Men
16-24
Year-Olds
Women
15
Outlook and Summary
Recovery faces significant headwinds:
• Housing market is still a mess
• Less government spending/stimulus
• Structural unemployment
• Income inequality
Bright Spots:
• Strong corporate profits
• Banks are loosening purse strings
• Consumers are paying off debt
• Manufacturing is doing well, exports are up
16
Arizona Economic Overview
17
Employment Growth, AZ v. U.S.
January 2006 to Present (percent change, year ago)
Arizona
U.S.
18
AZ Unemployment Rate
January 2000 to Present
Arizona
U.S.
19
Arizona Industries
Employment Today Compared to a Year Ago
Job Added in
the Last Year
Peak-to-Trough
Employment Loss
Healthcare
+14,100
Never Lost Jobs
Leisure and Hospitality
+10,400
-11.5%
Construction
+4,600
-57.5%
Manufacturing
+4,700
-21.7%
Transportation and Warehousing
+4,100
-12.6%
Education
+2,900
Never Lost Jobs
Local Government
+2,600
-18.7%
Professional/Business Services
-800
-19.3%
Finance/Insurance
-300
-12.6%
20
Arizona’s Budget Improving
• The budget is balanced! (but down 21% from FY2008)
• FY2010 was the bottom of the recession when revenues fell below
FY2004 level
• Arizona now has six straight quarters of general fund revenue
growth
• While revenue recovery has begun, it is difficult to forecast its
speed due to the uncertain economy
• Short-term surpluses:
– 2012 - $416m
– 2013 - $143m
– 2014 - $610m to $1.2b shortfall (1% temporary sales tax expires)
21
Taxable Sales - Arizona
January 2005 to Present (percent change, year ago)
22
Arizona’s Population
Census 2010
• Arizona was the second fastest growing state between 2000 and
2010 (24.6%). Nevada was first (35.1%)
• Total population of 6,392,017 – but less than 2009 projection
• Hispanic population grew 46.3% from 2000-2010
• Greater Phoenix has the 6th most Hispanics of all cities in U.S.
with 589,877
• Arizona accounted for 16.6% of the growth in children 10 yearsold or less nationwide between 2000 and 2010
• “Cultural generation gap” of 40%
23
Arizona Won’t Truly Recover Until
Housing Improves
• Excess supply of homes – 70,000 in Greater Phoenix alone
• Home prices down over 50% - to late ‘90s levels
• Arizona is one of the worst performing states for mortgage
delinquencies and foreclosures
• New home construction has all but ceased
• Commercial real estate market is hurting
• Market will not recover until household formation and jobs return
• On the positive side - housing is now much more affordable, and
interest rates are at historic lows
24
Outlook and Summary
Downside
• Weak job market
• Incomes and wages are lagging
• Housing fundamentals are poor
• Public sector employment and population
growth will be a drag on the Economy
• Population Mobility must Improve to Absorb
Excess Housing Stock and Build New Homes
Upside
• Hiring is Up
• Retail Sales are Up
• State Budget is Balanced – For Now
25
Implications for MCCCD
• For MCCCD, the recession is a double-edged sword
– Enrollment is up
– But fewer resources are available
• District needs to look at new revenue streams
–
–
–
–
Alternative delivery
Contract training
Alleviate structural unemployment (jobs mismatch)
Underserved and emerging populations
• Short-term – Slow population and economic growth, little help
from state
• Long-term - Arizona is projected to add 1.8m new jobs in the next
30 years. Many will be in Maricopa County. MCCCD will play a vital
role in training
26
Questions?
[email protected]
27