Transcript Political

Great Decisions 2009:
The US and Rising Powers
By
Dr. Alethia H. Cook
Brought to you by the
World Affairs Council of Eastern North Carolina
Pivotal States
 In the late 1990s, the idea of “pivotal states” in world
politics was popularized by a book by Robert Chase,
Emily Hill, and Paul Kennedy (eds)
 Their basic argument at that time was that the US had to
reconceptualize American foreign policy in light of the
end of the Cold War and changing relative importance of
states within the international system
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First…
 My process began with identification of the key
characteristics of states that allow them to impact world
affairs into the future
 Some states may be very powerful in one area (military,
for instance) but weak in others (economics,
development, etc.)
 Importance was placed on a state’s ability to project
power with the international instrument, rather than
merely protect itself
 Clearly, there is some bias involved in selecting the
instruments of power and their relative importance, but
this provides an interesting lens through which to view
the states
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Variables
 Instruments of Power in relative order of importance
(perhaps)
– Economic
– Military
– Nuclear Weapons State
– Political
 Facilitators or hindrances
– Development
– Dilemmas
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INSTRUMENTS OF POWER
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Economic
 During the Cold War, military power was the
predominant concern, with economic factors playing a
supporting role
– Money bought better military equipment
– Political influence was tied to development money and military
aid
 Today, economics are probably more important than
military factors
– 1991 Gulf War and current War in Iraq have major economic (i.e.
access to oil) elements
– Current GWOT could also be tied to the economic impact of 9/11
and subsequent global recession
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Goldman Sachs Global Economy
Projection to 2050
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Military
 Military factors are still important, however
 Most states in the international system lack the ability to
impose their will—even on their immediate neighbors
 The ability to project military power globally is held by
only a few states
 Regional power projection is also an important factor
– Can promise protection to neighbors
– Can punish recalcitrant states to assure regional blocs hold
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Wikipedia’s Comparison of Active
Duty Troop Numbers
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Military Spending, 2008
$ Billions
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US expenditures=$711 billion
Nuclear Weapons
 Nuclear weapons are arguably a subset of the military
instrument, but one that requires special attention
 Nothing conveys power in the international system more
effectively than a state’s command of the nuclear option
 Several states are today using the threat of developing a
nuclear weapon to manipulate others and gain favors
from the international system
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Political
 This overlaps considerably with economics and military
 It includes a country’s ability to use carrots and sticks to
influence the behavior of others
 It is also manifest in the country’s formation and
participation in coalitions and alliances with others
 A state that can influence others politically and impact
their behavior has significant power
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FACILITATORS AND
HINDRANCES
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Development
 Political, economic and social development are required
of a state if it aspires to great power status
 Development is difficult to measure, but is generally a
scale from least to most developed
 It is recognized that a country could conceivably follow a
different path than that which has been taken by the
current powers but still achieve higher status
 Typically, however, powerful states have followed similar
paths to development
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Dilemmas
 Countries experience a variety of challenges
domestically that may impact their ability to become
world powers
 Examples include:
– Poverty
– Lack of education
– Huge populations or increases in population
– Environmental or negative weather patterns
– Civil conflict
 Another country’s dilemmas could either benefit or hurt
the US as countries vie for power
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RISING POWERS
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China
 Economically, few can compete with the Chinese
powerhouse
–
–
–
Economic growth rates of about 9.7% since the 1970s
Decreasing poverty and increasing education
Trade surpluses with most countries
 Political
–
One of the few reasons that China will allow a trade deficit is to
build political ties (i.e. influence) with neighbors
 Military—second largest in manpower and funding—
a nuclear power since 1964
 Development—impressive, but could become a
dilemma
–
Fourth in the world based on the World Bank’s World
Development Indicators
 Dilemmas
–
–
–
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–
Development has been uneven and many still live in significant
poverty with little education and access to healthcare
Poverty rate reduction has fallen since the 1990s, as the
problems become more intractable
Government has declared it will accept massive pollution in the
interest of continued economic development—causing
degradation of rural natural resource base and the urban
environment
Enormous and growing population
India
 In spite of impressive recent economic
growth (8% per year), 33.5% of India’s
population lived on less than $1 per day
according to recent World Bank reports
–
Another estimate is that 77% of Indians live
on less than ½ of a dollar a day
 Politically, India has become an
international darling, with the US declaring
her to be a strategic partner
–
It is also a vibrant democracy
 India has a large and well-equipped
military with some capacity for power
projection and got nukes in 1998
 While political development is strong,
economic development has been
extremely uneven
–
World Bank puts India at 12th in the world
for World Development Indicators
 India’s population has seen some increase
in their well-being, however, this has
increased their demands on government
for improvement in healthcare,
employment, education, and infrastructure
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Iran
 The Iranian economy faces significant challenges
including high inflation, unemployment, subsidies,
major hurdles to private sector development, and
high levels of poverty
–
–
Subsidies exaggerate the purchasing power of
Iranians
Many Iranians are angry that the promised economic
growth has not been realized by Ahmadinejad
 Iran’s military is among the largest and most
advanced in the region
 There are international concerns it is developing
nuclear weapons, which has resulted in sanctions
that have hurt the country economically
 Politically, Iran’s current administration has
alienated many in the world—however it still
exerts significant regional influence
–
Nature of the government makes its actions fairly
unpredictable
 Requires significant investment in its infrastructure
to improve its economic performance
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The United States and Iran:
Policy Challenges and Opportunities
Alethia H. Cook
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and
Jalil Roshandel
Japan
 Almost did not make the list
 Economically, it is and has been a powerhouse
for a long time—but has suffered some recent
setbacks with annual growth rate dropping from
4% in the 1990s to about 1.7% today
 However, its military and political influence have
been on the rise recently
 US security cooperation with Japan has
increased of late and has helped to stabilize the
region
–
–
–
It is a large contributor to international
peacekeeping efforts
Japan is a strong supporter of the US GWOT—but
US preoccupation with it is sometimes a challenge
US bases in the country are also a constant
source of disagreement
 Second (behind the US) in the World Bank’s
World Development Indicators rankings
 Dilemmas include Japan’s perpetual lack of
natural resources, high dependence on
international system for oil and foodstuffs (55%)
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Pakistan
 Has had an economic crisis due to high
international prices, internal strife, and a
lack of policy action to address the
problems
 Has poor social services, in spite of
recent improvements in education and
health
 The country has a strong military and
nuclear weapons
– Politically, the military plays a significant role in
the governance of the country
– The military is large and has a huge impact on
the economy and society
 US sees Pakistan as a pivotal ally in the
GWOT
 In critical need of infrastructure
improvement
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Russia
 Since 2000, Russia’s economy has been growing
at an impressive rate of about 6.5% per year
 Politically, the country has achieved some stability
under the leadership of Putin
–
–
–
However, governance is highly centralized and
personalized in Putin
Has had several international diplomatic conflicts,
however, especially with the US
Looks like a “resurgent” Russia with strong antiAmerican sentiments
 Militarily, the country is in need of major
investments (which 2008 saw indications were
forthcoming) to modernize its military
–
This year’s incursion into Georgia demonstrates it still
has power projection capabilities
 A nuclear power
 11th in World Bank’s World Development Index
 Dilemmas include weak property rights
enforcement, inadequate competition, problems in
public governance, and high dependence on oil
and gas production
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–
–
Inflation is also high (11.9% in 2007) in the country
Organized crime and corruption are rampant
Rogue Bloc
 Hugo Chavez has been courting
leaders from rogue states to join in
his alliance against imperialism
 Venezuela’s oil wealth has allowed
him to try and expand his country’s
influence
 2007 world tour specifically targeted
states at odds with the US
 He also signed arms and energy
deals along the way
 While this may not be THE bloc that
challenges us, the US should
consider such alliances as the threat
posed could exceed the sum of the
parts
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US Policy Stoplight Chart
China
Economic
•Economic
India
Iran
Japan Pakistan Russia
•Military
Military
•Nuclear
Nuclear weapons
•Political
Political
•Development
Development
•Dilemmas
Rogue
Bloc
Dilemmas
Based on US policy interests, a ranking from negative
to positive was assigned
Negative characteristic
Neutral characteristic
Positive characteristic
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