Transcript Wil our children come back - Rotary Club Budapest-City

Peter Mihályi
Will our children ever come back? (Visszajönnek-e a
gyermekeink?)
Talk at the Rotary Club of Budapest-City
28 January, 2014
Introduction of Prof. Dr. Péter MIHÁLYI
Born in Budapest (1953)
Education: Karl Marx University of Economics
(Budapest)
Author of 10 books and many articles.
Work experience:
1983-1993: United Nations Economic Commission for
Europe (Geneva, Switzerland)
1994-95: Deputy Government Commissioner for
Privatization
1997-98: Deputy Minister of Finance
May, 2006 – December, 2007 Head of the Health
Reform Committee of the Hungarian
Government
January, 2008 – May, 2008: Special adviser to the
Minister of Health
1998 - to date: University professor (Budapest,
Veszprém)
I.
2
Sorry, this is in Hungarian
„Még magasról nézvést
Megvolna az ország,
Werbőczi-utódok
Foldozzák, toldozzák.
A Föld nem tud futni,
Csak a Földnek népe
S ezer Kinizsi sem
Térülhet elébe.”
Ady Endre
3
Outline
1)Migration in the modern, globalized
world economy:
• Number of people on the move
• Money on the move.
2)The perceived take-off in Hungary
after 2010.
3)What is normal and what is unique
in Hungary?
4
1.
5
Migration is normal. It is driven by the
„pursuit of happiness” – i.e. better
living conditions
6
Out of Africa…
7
Today: Two driving forces
Push effect (trivial):
People are aware that in other countries they can generate higher incomes.
Thus they go…
Pull effect:
a) The rich countries may erect administrative barriers to inward migration.
b) If the borders are open, the size of the diaspora is the most important
explanatory factor.
 This is a one-way street. The bigger is the diaspora, the easier to make
the migration decision.
World: Stock of immigrants 216 mn or 3.2% of population. The best, the
richest and the most entrepreneurial citizens of their native countries.
8
Main tendencies (people)
• Migrant destination countries: USA (43 mn), Russia (12 mn), Germany (11
mn), Saud Arabia (7 mn), and Canada (7 mn) [Wealth and language!]
• Immigration countries, relative to population: Qatar (87%), Monaco (72%),
the United Arab Emirates (70%) and Kuwait (69%).
• Emigration countries, relative to population: West Bank and Gaza (70%),
Albania (45%), Armenia (28%), Georgia (25%), Kazakhstan (24%) and Portugal
(21%).
• Surprisingly the South  South migration (migration between developing
countries) is larger than migration from South  North [Administrative
barriers]
• Largest migration corridor: Mexico - USA , former USSR  Russia , Ukraine
and Ukraine  Russia
9
Main tendencies (money)
• Main sources of remittances: USA ( - 48 bn $), Saudi Arabia,
Switzerland and Russia.
• Recorded remittances flowing back to developing countries are
nearly three times the amount of official aid and almost as large as
FDI flows to developing economies
• Top recipient countries: India, China, Mexico, Philippines and
France.
• Top recipient countries as a % of GDP: Tajikistan (35%), Lesotho
(25%), Moldova (31), Nepal (23%) … Serbia (13%), Albania (11%).
10
2.
11
The perceived emigration take-off in
Hungary after 2010
Nobody knows the real figures, unlike in 1956, when 180,000 able-bodied , young
people left the country after the revolution.
The best present estimate is 500,000. Much or little? So far, 500,000 Hungarian
passports were distributed in Romania, Serbia, etc.
Relevant developments:
1. The Hungarian economy has been stagnating since 2006, and the 2010
elections didn’t really change the growth perspectives.
2. Spring 2011: The young medics, fulfilling their mandatory Residential Program
had a very loud campaign for better salaries and working conditions.
3. Autumn 2011 and first half of 2013: Student mass demonstrations against
tuition fees and drastic cuts in university enrollment limits.
12
Sorry, this is in Hungarian again…
„Nem tetszik, hogy egyre szarabbul
érzem magamat hazámban.
Nem tetszik, hogy a haverok, a rokonok
nemsokára disszidálnak
Nem tetszik, hogy senki sem egész
Nem tetszik, hogy mindenki fél.
Nem tetszik, hogy a szegények
fizetnek meg mindenért.
Nem tetszik, de nagyon nem
"Hull az elsárgult levél..."
Nem tetszik, hogy a diplomám
egyre inkább szart sem ér.”
(Pálfi - Karsay - Máthé – Jónás)
2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSP81Che1X0
13
Only anecdotal evidences…
1) Target countries: EU member states where English
and German is spoken.
2) There is a very considerable cross-border commuting
flow (on weekly basis)
3) Young and well-trained workers are overrepresented.
4) Off-springs of high- and middle-income families are
also overrepresented. This is not conducive to
increase remittances. 
5) More and more 18-years old start university abroad.

14
Remittances as a % of GDP
15
The Internet – as
pull effect
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
http://www.londonimagyarbuli.com/
http://www.iranylondon.hu/
http://www.londonimagyarok.hu/
http://www.beauty-garden.net/ -beauty parlor
http://estfmradio.com/place/magyar-fodrasz-london/ - hair-dresser
http://www.hungariandeli.co.uk/
http://www.radioforest.net/radio/londoni-magyar-online-radio/354142
http://kml.uw.hu/ - real estate
http://szaboviktoria.eu/ - psychologist
https://hu-hu.facebook.com/magyarugyvedlondonban - lawyer
http://www.magyarkatolikusok.co.uk/news.php - church
http://www.magyariskola.org.uk/en/noticeboard - school
Others: low-cost airlines, E-mail, Skype
16
3.
17
Letter from my cousin living in
Sweden…
„Peter,
why do you think that
Hungary is different? You know
very well, that our children are
also in London and New York.”
18
The outward migration figures are not
very different!
Population (mn)
Stock of emigrants
(mn)
Emigrants as a %
population
Emigration rate of
tertiary-educated
population (%)
Inward remittance
flow (US $ bn)
Austria Belgium Czech R. Slovakia Greece Netherlands Portugal Sweden Switzerland Hungary
8.4
10.8
10.5
5.4
11.3
16.5
10.6
9.3
7.7
10.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.2
1.0
2.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
7.1
4.3
3.6
9.6
10.8
6.0
20.8
3.4
5.4
4.6
13.5
4.9
10.4
16.7
12.0
9.6
19.5
4.3
8.9
13.2
3.2
10.4
1.2
1.7
2.0
3.7
3.6
0.7
2.1
2.3
All these countries are classified as high-income
countries by the World Bank.
19
… but look at the inward migration data
Austria Belgium Czech R. Slovakia Greece Netherlands Portugal Sweden Switzerland Hungary
Stock of
immigrants (mn)
Stock of
immigrants as a %
of population
Net balance of
migration as a %
population
Outward
remittance flow
(US $ mn)
1.3
1.5
0.5
0.1
1.1
1.8
0.9
1.3
1.7
0.4
15.6
13.7
4.4
2.4
10.1
10.5
8.6
14.1
23.2
3.7
8.5
9.4
0.8
-7.2
-0.7
4.5
-12.2
10.7
17.8
-0.9
3.3
4.3
2.6
0.1
1.8
8.1
1.5
0.7
19.6
1.3
20
The Hungarian problem is the lack of
immigration!
Most of the countries listed on the previous slide (but also other countries, like
Russia) are capable to attract large number of
• unskilled, cheap labor and/or
• highly qualified, ambitious workers.
Both are vital for fast
economic growth.
There hasn’t been much of this happening in Hungary, except the absorption of
native Hungarians from the neighboring countries during the first half of the
1990s.
Well-documented: Hungarian speaking doctors arriving from Romania and the
Ukraine.
It seems that this process is over.
21
The number of foreigners residing in
Hungary (> 1 year)
22
Source: Eurostat
The past and the future
Twenty years ago, speaking in a Hungarian
refugee camp set up during the Balkan war, Prime
Minister Péter Boross declared that „Hungary is
full”. Since then, the country’s population fell by
500,000.
2014 – 2024: According to the Hungarian Central
Statistical Office, the total population will shrink
by 412 thousand, while those in the working age
(20 -64 years) by 579 thousand.
23
24
A semmilyen idegen nyelvet nem beszélő felnőtt lakosság aránya néhány Európai
országban 2011-ben
25
A kivándorlók becsült aránya különböző viszonyítás
alapok szerint (2010)
26
A Magyarországon kiadott összes nyelvvizsga bizonyítvány
számának alakulása
Source: Radó Péter
http://oktpolcafe.hu/nyelvtudas-eskivandorlas-az-agyelszivargasmertekerol-2386/
27