Transcript BAHRAIN - Geopolitics and the Arab Spring in the Gulf

BAHRAIN

THE UNHEARD REBELLION
IMPORTANT DATES
1913 – Bahrain is granted “independence” in a treaty between the British and the Ottoman
Empire, but remains under British control.
1931 – Oil is discovered in Bahrain by BAPCO (relative of SOCAL) and production begins the
following year.
1961 – Sheikh Isa Bin-Salman al-Khalifa becomes leader of Bahrain and establishes Bahrain as
a monarchy. The Khalifa’s are Sunni Muslim while the majority of Bahrainis are Shiite.
1970 – Iran drops its claims of sovereignty over Bahrain after a UN referendum shows
Bahrainis wish to remain independent.
1971 – Khalifa becomes Emir of Bahrain when they obtain independence from Britain.
BAHRAIN
IMPORTANT DATES
1981 – Bahrain joins GCC; 73 people said to be agents of Iran arrested in plot to overthrow the government.
1986 – King Fahd Causeway connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
1991 – United States and Bahrain sign defense agreement
1996 – Another alleged coup plot uncovered by Bahrain assigned to Iran
1997 – Bahrain becomes sole owner of BAPCO
1999 – Sheikh Hamad succeeds his father to the throne
2001 – Bahrain becomes a constitutional monarchy under a referendum with local elections following in 2002
2004 – Bahrain signs free trade agreement with the U.S.
2006 – Bahrain has elections in which Shia’s win 40% of parliamentary seats
2010 – Shia are poised to make big gains in parliament elections; many are arrested in a parliamentary coup
before elections; Shias make small gains but this election proves to be a spark in 2011
BAHRAIN
Basic Facts and Demographics

Oil was a primary export, however, now Bahrain has returned to refining and international
banking as reserves decline. One of the most diversified economies in the Middle East.

70% Shia ruled by Sunni monarchy. Similar protests were placated in 1990s through economic
and political reforms, including parliamentary elections.

38% of the country is non-Bahraini foreign workers living in the country. Many of these are
Sunnis who work for the security apparatus of the regime.

1.2 million people, solid age structure; however, fast growing population (2.8%) and 20%
unemployment

4.5% of GDP goes toward military expenditure (20th highest in the world).

Long term greivances between Shia population and Sunni government have become
especially exasperated after 2010 elections and have spilled over into protests in 2011.
BAHRAIN
February 14

Protests begin in Bahrain at the Pearl Roundabout. Protesters gathered at the Pearl
Roundabout to call for Constitutional reforms. Protesters were met with force from the
beginning, resulting in 14 deaths.

Protests continue through February, with the government and protesters trading positions
around the Pearl Roundabout.
March 14

Saudi and Emirati troops are sent to assist Bahrain in ending the protests to the chagrin of
the international community. State of Emergency is declared.
March 18

Government destroys the Pearl Roundabout in the hopes to quell protests. Six opposition
leaders are arrested and jailed for “speaking with foreign agents.”
BAHRAIN
May 31/June 1
 King Hamad calls for dialogue and state of emergency is lifted.
November 23
 Report is issued admitting that regime used excessive force to
quell protests where 23 died; no connection found with Iran.
BAHRAIN
Allegations Against the Bahraini Regime
 Doctors were targeted en masse because they have proof of
atrocities by the regime
 Doctors were put on trial for treating protesters
 Protesters were sentenced to death; several have been tortured
to death
 300 workers fired from oil plants; teachers laid off; workers fired
(US Labor groups sent to Bahrain to view evidence)
BAHRAIN
June 29

King Hamad called for an investigation into human rights abuses during the protests in
February and March
November 23

Bahraini Independent Commission Report (BICI) finds excessive force was used and there was
no Iranian influence.

35 people were killed, 500 people detained since February.

Government regretted the actions of a few, but still blamed Iran for propaganda and
incitement

Report actually emboldened protesters who now believe they have increasingly legitimate
claims against the government.
BAHRAIN
Effects of Protests and Role of Actors

Protests still continue in cities throughout the country with arrests,
detentions, and loss of jobs.

Economy has slowed to a drip. Shrank from projected 4% growth to 1.5%
growth.

United States: Arms deal was cancelled until BICI report was cleared; labor
relations strained; US Nationals are working to reform police forces and
helping with regime PR

Iran: Allegedly has had a hand in inciting Shia protestors; explosion at British
Embassy last week – terrorism; Bahrain and Iran have important oil ties

Cold War in the Gulf? // What is next for the regime and protestors?
Yemen
A Country on the Brink

Yemen- Profile
Economy
 Dependent on depleting oil reserves
 Attempts at economic diversification
 Recently began exporting liquefied natural gas
 35% unemployment (2003)
 Youth Bulge
 Declining water resources
Yemen History

Yemen: A Brief History
1962- Yemen Arab Republic founded
1970- People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen founded
1984- Oil is discovered in Yemen by Hunt Company
1990- Unification of the YAR and PDRY into the Republic of Yemen
1993- Parliamentary Elections held, paving the way to Civil War
1994- Civil War breaks out between the North and South
2000- Saudi- Yemen Border demarcated
Yemen History
 Yemen: A Brief History cont’d
2000- USS Cole suicide attack
2004- Al-Houthi Movement emerges in North
2006- President Saleh wins election
2007- Southern Movement Reemerges
2009- Saudi Arabia engages Al-Houthi Movement militarily
2011- Yemen Uprising begins with protests and solidarity marches
Yemen Uprising
Photos Courtesy of jadaliyya.com and Reuters
Yemen Uprising

Causes
- Uprisings in Tunisia & Egypt
- High Unemployment
- Perpetually High Food and Gas Prices
- Corruption and Poor Governance

Major Players

The Opposition Movement
-Youth Movement
- Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)
- Hashid Tribal Confederation
-First Armored Division- General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar
Yemen Uprising
 General People’s Congress (GPC)
- President Saleh maintains
- Patronage Mechanism
- Various GPC figures defected during the course of
the uprisings
Major Threats
 Al- Houthi Movement
 Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement)
 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
International Response

UN Resolution 2014
- Demands 30- day reporting mechanism on the progress being made
towards initiating the GCC agreement

GCC brokered power transition
- Immunity for Saleh and other GPC members
- Saleh hands over power to VP Abdrabbuh Monsour al- Hadi within 30
days of signature (Dec. 23rd)
- Elections set for February 23, 2012
- 35 Member Interim National Unity Government Announced

US counter-terror operations top priority
Saudi Arabia
Counter-
Revolutionary Force
or Protector of the
Status Quo?
Background Information
 Birthplace of Islam
 Governed by Shar’ia Law and Wahhabism
 Wealthy and “Developed” nation
 High Rate of Unemployment
 History of extensive Human Rights Abuses
 Long and complicated history with United States
Saudi Response to Arab Awakening
 37 Billion Dollars ($US) in social reform and welfare
programs
 Overwhelming police presence within the Kingdom
 Complete military crackdown on ANY
demonstrations or protests
 New “Anti-Terrorism” Law
 Strict press laws and punishments for political
activism
Crown Prince Nayef and the Line of
Succession
 Former Defense Minister
 Close to the Wahhabi
Clerical Establishment
 Ultra Conservative, hardliner
 78 years old, much of royal
family is old and/or ailing.
Thought to be out of touch
with much of Saudi
population
Principle Threat: Women
Current Situation
•
•
Very Repressed and
extremely limited both
socially and culturally, as
is standard in pure
Wahhabist rule
Desire more social and
political freedom and
inclusion within Saudi
Society
Saudi Response:
 Women granted right to vote
recently
 Stricter laws being passed
regarding limiting women's’
freedoms within Saudi
Arabia
Principle Threat: The Youth
Unemployment
Current Situation
 Average age is 25 years
 Estimates for unemployment
are as high as 25%
 Huge gaps in income
throughout the kingdom
 About 80% of Saudi
workforce are non-nationals
Saudi Response
 37Billion dollars in welfare
reforms including
unemployment benefits and
subsidies
 “Strategic Partnership” with
the United States in a
385Billion Dollar Investment
in the future of Saudi Arabia
Principle Threat: Shia Minority
Current Situation
 2Million Shia’s living in Qatif
 Unfair treatment and subject
to systematic discrimination
 March: “Day of Rage”
 Early December: 4 Dead and
as many as 11 Injured in
protests
Saudi Response
 Early December marks the
first time Saudi forces used
gunfire against protestors
 Using any and all means to
quiet and quell dissent
 Blamed violence on an
“unnamed foreign influence”
Demonstrations in Qatif
Principle Threat: Iran

Struggle and Competition to be
the regional Hegemon

Sectarian differences cause an
escalation in the situation

Proxy Wars: Bahrain, Syria,
Yemen, is Iraq next?

Extremist activity: Hamas,
Hezbollah, Al Qaeda

United States wants
containment of Iranian
Influence
Qatar
A Basic History
 1971: Independence from British
 1939: Discovery of oil reserves
 1990: Qatar allows foreign troops on territory;
participates in Gulf War
 1996: Al-Jazeera is launched
 1999: Municipal elections take place for the first time
 2001: Border disputes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
settled

2005: New Constitution comes into effect

2007: Doha Center for Media Freedom established

2008: First official Church inaugurated

2011: Join military operations in Libya

2013: First-ever elections for advisory committee to be held

Historical rule by Al-Thani family

Population: 1.8 million; 250,000 citizens

Majority religion: Sunni Islam

GDP per capita (2010): $179,000 (#1)

GDP Growth Rate (2010): 16.3%

HDI: 0.831
Foreign Relations
 Israel
 Iran
 Saudi Arabia
 Bahrain
 USA
 Russia
Military Power
 Gulf War: Qatar allows foreign troops into
territory
 Iraq War: US base in Qatar becomes ‘nerve
center’ of operations in Iraq (now largest
military base outside of USA)
 Libya: join in NATO-led military operations;
reportedly arm rebels
 10%GDP spent on military (2005 estimate)
Soft Power
GCC
 Founding member 1981
 Mediation
 Lebanon
 Sudan/Darfur
 Western Sahara
 Somalia
 Palestine
 Al Jazeera
 Promoting freer media in Arab world
 Coverage of Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
 Al Jazeera coverage of uprisings
 Bahrain protests coverage
 English vs Arabic channels
 Democratization: Advisory Council Election s planned for
2013
 Sent troops to Bahrain during protests
 Emir urges Western leaders to embrace moderate Islam
 “If you have everything you need, who needs democracy?”