Transcript Titel - ESPON

ESPON SEMINAR
Evora, 12-13 november, 2007
Progress on an ex-ante assessment tool for territorial
impact of EU policies:
The TEQUILA model and beyond
Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano
Content
1. The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link
2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion
3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria
4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model
5. The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM
6. TEQUILA SIP: Interactive Simulation Package
7. Application to TENs policies
8. The interactive package
9. Mapping the results
10. The way forward
1. The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link
ESDP made a plea for an integrated TIA methodology
A TIA methodology has necessarily to start by linking up
with a sound theoretical and operational definition of
Territorial Cohesion
“Territorial cohesion translates the goal of sustainable and
balanced development assigned to the Union into
territorial terms” (Rotterdam Declaration, Dutch
Presidency, 2004)
For us:
Territorial cohesion may be seen as the territorial
dimension of sustainability
(beyond the technological, the behavioural and the
diplomatic dimensions of sustainability) (Camagni, 2004)
2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion
The 3 main components of territorial cohesion:
* Territorial Efficiency:
resource-efficiency with respect to energy, land and natural
resources; competitiveness and attractiveness of the local
territory; internal and external accessibility
* Territorial Quality:
the quality of the living and working environment;
comparable living standards across territories;
similar access to services of general interest and to
knowledge
* Territorial Identity:
presence of “social capital”; landscape and cultural heritage;
capability of developing shared visions of the future;
creativity;productive “vocations” and competitive advantage
of each territory
2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion
3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria
Territorial efficiency:
Lisbon:
- Economic efficiency and production capability
- Competitiveness and innovation capability
- Inter-regional integration
Gothenborg + Kyoto:
- Resource efficiency: consumption of energy, land, water….
- Reduction of technological and environmental risk
- Compact city form, reduction of sprawl
Spatial structure:
- Polycentric urban system
- Development of city-networks and medium cities
- General accessibility - internal and external
- Quality of transport and communication services
3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria
Territorial quality:
People and cohesion:
- Access to services of general interest
- Quality of life and working conditions
- Multiethnic solidarity and integration
- Reduction of interregional income disparities
- Reduction of unemployment, poverty and exclusion
Natural resources
- Conservation and creative management of natural resources
- Sustainable transport: public transport and absence of
congestion
Spatial structure:
- Cooperation between city and coutryside
3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria
Territorial identity:
Heritage and landscape
- Conservation and creative management of cultural heritage
- Conservation and creative management of landscape
Production “vocations”
- Cognitive capability: creativity and innovativeness
- Development of region-specific know-how and knowledge
- Accessibility to global knowledge and creative “blending”
with local knowledge
Capabilities
- Development of shared “visions” for the future
Social capital
- Cooperation capability; social networks;
- Shared behavioural rules
4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model
T erritorial
E fficiency
QU ality
I dentity
L ayered
A ssessment
Model (Camagni, 2006)
the TEQUILA Model
1. TEQUILA is a Multicriteria Model for the Territorial Impact
Assessment of EU policies
2. The 3 components of the T.C. concept and their subcomponents become the criteria in the Assessment Model
4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model
3. The weights of the 3 criteria and sub-criteria are flexible
(sensitivity of results with respect to change in weights is
tested interactively)
4. The general impact of EU policies on each criterion is
defined using ad hoc studies, with both qualitative and
quantitative approaches
5. A method for combining quali-quantitative impact
indicators inside the multi-criteria analysis is supplied
4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model
Qualitative impact scores are attributed on a +5 to -5 scale:
5= very high advantage for all;
4= high advantage for all;
3= high advantage for some, med. adv. for all;
2= medium advantage;
1= low advantage;
0= nil impact;
-5= very high disadvantage for all
-4= high disadvantage for all
-3= high disadv. for some, medium disadv. for all
-2= medium disadvantage
-1= low disadvantage
Alternative scaling of quantitative assessments (e.g.)
a) “local scaling”
b) “ad hoc scaling”
+5
+3
0
+2
180
250
Impact on regional employment
180
250
Impact on regional employment
4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model
The 2 layers
1st layer: General Assessment of the impact of EU policies on
the overall European territory: to be intended as a “potential
impact” on an abstract territory (PIM)
2nd layer: “Territorial Assessment” on each region: why?
- the intensity of the policy application may be different on
different regions
- the relevance of the different “criteria” is likely to be
different for different regions, according to their utility
function
- the vulnerability and the receptivity of the different regions
to similar “potential” impacts is likely to be different
- a region may not be subject to a specific policy
5. The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM
TIMr = Σc θc . (PIMr,c . Sr,c )
TIM = territorial impact
c = criterion of the multi-criteria method
r = region
θc = weight of the c criterion
PIMr,c = potential impact according to quantitative assessm.
Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c
Sr,c = Dr,c . Vr,c
Dr,c = desirability of criterion c for region r (territorial “utility
function”)
Vr,c = vulnerability of region c to impact on c (receptivity for
positive impacts)
In qualitative assessment:
PIMr,c = (PIMc . PIr )
where PIr = policy intensity in r
6. TEQUILA SIP: an Interactive Simulation Package
The TEQUILA model is operated through an interactive
simulation device, specifically built for Espon (3.2):
TEQUILA SIP
- interactive, easy to build and operate
- working on different layers (particularly: Europe 29 and
NUTS 3) and on any EU policy
As a pioneering and prototype experiment, TEQUILA SIP was
applied to the assessment of the Territorial Impact of EU
transport policy (TEN-TINA), using existing quantitative
ESPON assessments and data base
Territorial level : NUTS 3 (1329 regions)
Collaboration of ESPON teams in data supply is gratefully
acknowledged
7. Application to TENs policies
3 criteria
Territorial Efficiency
Territorial Quality
Territorial Identity
Variables
9 sub-criteria
PIM_E1
Internal Connectivity
PIM_E2
External Accessibility
PIM_E3
Economic Growth
PIM_Q1
Congestion
PIM_Q2
Emissions
PIM_Q3
Transport sustainability
PIM_I1
Creativity
PIM_I2
Cultural heritage
PIM_I3
Landscape resources
7. Application to TENs policies: PIM
PIM
Subcriteria
Indicator
Unit of measure
Dir
Var.
Wgt
Source of
data
Km / GDP
+
0 to 4
0,333
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
Number of people
+
2 to 5
0,333
ESPON 1,2,1 SASI;
Mcrit
Dif GDP per capita, scenario B1 –
Difference to reference scenario
2000 – 2021
Dif % GDP/inhabitant
+
2 to 4
0,333
ESPON 2,1,1, SASI
Model
Congestion
Dif-flows, baseline scenario 2015
Million Vehicles/Km
-
2 to -5
0,333
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
PIM_Q2
Emissions
Dif CO2 emissions baseline
Million Tons CO2 / Year
-
2 to -5
0,333
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
PIM_Q3
Transport
sustainability
Dif rail - Dif road, baseline
scenario 2000-2015
Km - Km
+
-3 to 3
0,333
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
PIM_I1
Creativity
Dif accessibility*[knowledge and
creative services]
(# people)*( # libraries +
theatres)
+
1 to 4
0,333
ESPON 2,1,1, SASI
Model
PIM_I2
Cultural
heritage
Dif accessibility*[ # monuments
+ museums ]
(# people)*( #
monuments-museums)
+
1 to 4
0,333
ESPON 2,1,1, SASI
Model
PIM_I3
Landscape
Dif. Transport endowment
(road+rail) / GDP
Km / GDP
-
0 to -4
0,333
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
PIM_E1
Internal
Connectivity
Dif transport endowment (road +
rail)/GDP
PIM_E2
External
Accessibility
Dif accessibility potential
(road/rail pass. trav.), scenario
B1 (only priority projects)
PIM_E3
Growth
PIM_Q1
7. Application to TENs policies: sensitivity
Sensitivity
Sensitivity parameters
Unit of measure
Variation
Functional
shape
Source of data
S_E1
D = LOG of current density of transport
endowment [density=(road+rail)/GDP]
R=1
S = D norm
LOG[km road+rail] / GDP
0,8 to 1,2
Linear
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
ESPON 3.1
S_E2
D = LOG [current accessibility]
R=1
S = D norm
LOG [# of people daily accessible
by car]
0,8 to 1,2
Non Linear
ESPON 2,1,1 –
SASI Model
S_E3
D = GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant
R=1
S = D norm
GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant]
0,9 to 1,2
Linear
ESPON 3.1,
Eurostat Regio
S_Q1
D=Present congestion
V=Share of natural areas
S= mean of normalised D and V
D= Million Vehicles / network Km
V= share of natural areas (Km2)
0,8 to 1,2
D = Non Linear
ESPON 3.2 –
Mcrit; BBR Corine
Landcover
S_Q2
D=Present emissions
V=Share of natural areas
S= mean of normalised D and V
Present emissions CO2 year 2000
[million tons]
V= share of natural areas (Km2)
0,8 to 1,2
0,9 to 1,2
D = Non Linear
V = Linear
ESPON 3.2 Mcrit
BBR Corine
Landcover
S_Q3
D=Present share of railw. on total tran. ntw.
R=1
S = D norm
Km / Km (%)
0,8 to 1,2
D = Non Linear
ESPON 3.2
Mcrit
S_I1
D=GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant
R=1
S = D norm
GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant
0,9 to 1,2
Linear
ESPON 3.1,
Eurostat Regio
S_I2
D=GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant
R=1
S = D norm
GDP 2000 PPP per inhabitant
0,9 to 1,2
Linear
ESPON 3.1,
Eurostat Regio
S_I3
D=1
V = Natural vulnerability (natural area
fragmentation)
S= V norm
Natural area fragmentation
indicator
1-5: 1= very low; 5 = max
fragmentation
1,2 to 0,9
Linear
ESPON 1,3,1;
GTK
8. The interactive package
8. The interactive package
8. The interactive package: Impact on Efficiency
8. The interactive package: PIM on accessibility
9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Efficiency
9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Quality
9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Identity
9. Mapping results: General Impact
Beyond TEQUILA: another sip?
a. Improving theory
- cause-effect chains: unintentional side-effects of policies
- territorial preferences and utility functions
b. Improving modelling effort
- Interregional spillover effects (economic, environmental)
c. Enlarging data base
- construction/destruction of territorial capital: a paradigm
shift in territorial accounts
d. Picking the right policies: as selective as possible! Avoid
complex policies (such as cohesion policy). Better:
competitiveness pol., excellence pol., infrastr., capacity
building, water managm. policies).
THANKS
As the EU Ministers stated at the end of the Leipzig Charter:
“we look ahead with confidence”
Thanks for your attention!
Roberto Camagni
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
Politecnico di Milano
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133 MILANO
tel: +39 02 2399.2744 - 2750 secr.
fax: +39 02 2399.2710
[email protected]
http://econreg.altervista.org