Transcript INOV & COL LEARNING

GLOBELICS Academy 2004: Lisboa - 3 June 2004
Technological Change
and
the challenges for development:
building on the experience of less favoured regions
Manuel Heitor
in collaboration with:
Pedro Conceição and Paulo Ferrão
CENTER FOR INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH, IN+
Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon
http://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt
What is this lecture about?...
To extend human capability through
innovation and competence building,
with
infrastructures, incentives and institutions
fostering social capabilities to comply with
distributed knowledge bases and an
acelerated rate of technical change
Structure of the Argument
1. The perception today: a diversified context
•
Technical Change: complexity and uncertainty
•
Distributed knowledge base
•
Increasing reliance on market-based mechanisms to promote innovation
2. LFR´s - Beyond Infrastructures?
•
Building evidence: Material Flow accounting
•
Implication 1: Infrastructures and sustainability – which opportunities for innovation?
•
Implication 2: Infrastructures and urban concentration – which routes for innovation?
3. Knowledge and Learning: understanding knowledge economics
4. Policy implications: innovation and competence building
Technical Change: materials
Source: Ashby (1998); IPTS(1999)
10 000 BC
5000 BC
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
GOLD
COOPER
0
BRONZE
IRON
1000
1500 1800
1900
METALS
POLYMERS
1980
AL-LITHIUM ALLOYS
DUAL PHASE STEELS
STEELS
ALLOY
STEELS
IVORY
COMPOSITES
MICROALLOYED STEELS
RUBBER
WOOD
BAKELITE
POTTERT
GLASS
CERAMICS
10000 BC
5000 BC
ALLOYS
REFRACTORIES
PORTLAND
CEMENT
0
1000 1500 1800
FUSED
SILICA
1900
HIGH MODULUS
POLYMERS
COMPOSITES
CERAMIC COMPOSITES
METAL-MATRIX
COMPOSITES
KEVLAR
CERAMICS
SUPERCONDUCTORS
TOUGH ENGINEERING
CERAMICS
CERMETS
1940
POLYMERS
HIGH TEMPERATURE
POLYMERS
EPOXIES
POLYESTERS
NYLON
CEMENT
2020
CONDUCTING
POLYMERS
SUPER ALLOYS
TITANIUM
ZINCONIUM
ETC
2010
NEW SUPER ALLOYS
DEVELOPMENT SLOW
MOSTLY QUALITY
CONTROL AND
PROCESSING
PAPER
STONE
FLINT
2000
SURFACE
ENGINEERING
LIGHT
ALLOYS
BRICKS (with STRAW)
1990
METALS
GLASSY METALS
CAST IRON
SKIN
FIBRE
GUMS
1960
1940
1960
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Technical Change: perspectives
The Convergence: telecommunications and computers ...
The QUESTION : scope and scale
TECHNOLOGIES
•more technologies to
produce each product
PROCESSES
PRODUCT
TECHNOLOGY
•more products produced from
a given technology
Source: von Tunzelmann (1999))
PROCESSES
PRODUCTS
Emerging interactions...
Source: BIPE
to
from
information
technologies
materials
biotechnologies
energy
information
technologies
Telematics
Automation
Computers
Semiconductors
Superconductors
Biosensors
Biochips
Photovoltaic
applications
materials
Computer based
design of new
materials
New alloys
Ceramics and
composits
Bio-leaching
Biological ore
processing
Power lasers
biotechnologies
Instrumental analysis
of dna sequences
Membranes
Biocompatible
materials
Recombin. DNA
New drugs
Enzymatic Synthesis
Batteries
Pacemakers
Artificial Heart
energy
Supervision of
energy processes
Robotics
Security systems
Photovoltaic
materials
Fuel cells
Superconductors
New energy biomass
New reactors
Nuclear fusion
The CONTEXT
Nathan Rosenberg (2001):
“uncertainty in the realms of both science and technology ... have
enormously important consequences and a main concern is how
organisations and incentives migth be modified to accommodate
these uncertainties.”
Fonte: OECD(2001), “Social Sciences and Innovation”
Chris Freeman (2001):
“There is an irreducible uncertainty about future political, economic
and market developments ....,technological innovations may actually
increase it, since they add to the dimensions of general business
uncertainty, the dimension of technological uncertainty.”
Fonte: SPRU (2001)
The focus: less favoured regions …Why?
• Low value, Low networking...but high rate of change
• Peculiar institutional framework...
• ...and social dynamics!
A specific issue:
• “With some notable exceptions, the regional developmment
debate in LFRs has been dominated by exogeneous
models to such an extent that development tends to be
conceived as something that is introduced to, or visited
upon, less favoured regions, from external doors…
• …this kind of regional policy did little or nothing to stimulate
localised learning, innovation and indigeneous development
within LFRs”,
Henderson & Morgan (1999)
The perception today: a diversified context
The ‘globalizing learning economy’:
– a world characterized by accelerating technical change
To compete in such a world it is important:
• to go beyond infrastructures, and access to knowledge…
• but, it is even more important, to be able to learn as old
competences become obsolete, and this requires adequate
incentives and a dynamic institutional framework
The challenges:
• How to manage the risks of being innovative?
• Which Networks to access to distributed knowledge bases ?
• How to foster learning as moving along a given trajectory and
capability to cope with the emergence of new trajectories?
• How clusters can remain open to what is going on outside the cluster
and how to stimulate radical change when this is necessary?
to go beyond infrastructures:
Building evidence: Material Flow accounting
Method: Material Flow Analysis
... Why does it matter?
Material use leads to environmental damage
“One half to three quarters of annual resource inputs to industrial
economies are returned to the environment as wastes within a
year”,
The weight of nations, WRI (2000)
International trend:
Increase material productivity by a factor of:
2 in global terms
4 in next 20 to 30 years (EUROSTAT, 2001)*
10 in next 30 to 50 years (Factor 10 Club, 1995)**
Considered in national policies (e.g. The Netherlands, Austria; Kuhndt and Liedtke, 1998)***
Supported by European Union (factors 4 and 10; Reijnders, 1998)****
* Economy-wide Flow Accounts and Derived Indicators. A Methodological Guide
** Carnoules Declaration
*** “Translating a Factor X into Praxis”, in Third ConAccount Meeting: Ecologizing Societal Metabolism
**** “The Factor X Debate: Setting Targets for Eco-Efficiency”, J. Industrial Ecology, 2(1)
Material Flows accounting (MFA)
Adriaanse et al. (1997)*
Aggregation by mass
Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies
DMI vs GDP: the International trend
(1988-1997)
Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European
Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.
Looking at sustainability:
Decomposition of DMI variation
Canas, Conceição and Ferrão(2002)
Identity between Sustainability and Production (Malaska, 1998)*:
 GDP   DMI  Sustainable development associated
DMI  POP  

 with decreasing material flow
 POP   GDP 
Contributions calculation (Chung e Rhee, 2000)**:
Logaritmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Method
 GDP

 DMI
 POPt 


POPt 
GDPt
  L() ln
DMI  L() ln
 L() ln

 DMI GDP
 POP0 
 GDP POP 
0

0 






 DMIt  DMI0 

L()  
 lnDMIt DMI0  
* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis
** A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Decomposition of DMI variation
International disaggregation
Employment in construction
1985-1996
DMI/GDP
80
DMI
60
DMI/EMP
40
20
0
Denmark Finland
-20
-40
-60
France
Greece
Irland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Sw eden
UK
A case study: Portuguese DMI
Canas, Conceição and Ferrão(2002)
Domestic DMI
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
Non-renewable (%)
19,6
6,2
12,4
1,0
80,4
79,0
1,3
26999
38,6
3,8
34,2
0,5
61,4
60,5
1,0
38352
63,3
1,9
61,1
0,3
36,7
36,3
0,4
64231
65,2
2,4
62,7
0,1
34,8
34,4
0,4
77016
75,4
1,0
74,3
0,1
24,6
24,4
0,2
124835
Ores
Stone, clay, sand
Marine salt
Renewable (%)
Vegetal
Animal
Total (1000 t)
Imported DMI: Mineral Products (includes fuels and ores)
Implication 1:
Infrastructures and sustainability
…which opportunities for innovation?
Testing a relationship:
Innovation and sustainability
What’s the relevance of the technological innovation?
The technological innovation contributes to the economic growth
and allows the use of new processes and products that cause
less environmental damage or use resources more efficiently.
What’s the relevance of this theme?
If the kuznets Hypothesis is valid, then the reduction in
environmental damages can be achieved as a consequence of
the natural economic development process, that bases largely in
the adoption of new production and consumption
technologies. The result in terms of public policies is that the
stimulus to the innovation can have positive consequences in
the reduction of the environmental damages.
Innovation and sustainability : the approach...
Conceição, Heitor and Vieira(2002); Canas, Conceição and Ferrão(2003)
The Porter Hypothesis:
environmental regulation may lead, in the short term, to additional costs
at the firm level, but will give rise, at the long term, to the adoption of
new technologies and innovation, leading to growth
Static model
Dynamic model
The Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis:
Economic growth and environmental degradation are related
through an “U” inverted curve
• How far does this applies to Material Flows ?
GDP
Testing the “Porter Hypothesis”
Data from CIS II (1995-1997)- Portugal
Environmental concerns as
drivers of innovation
Important
Low-technology
Low productivity
High Exports Share
Not Relevant
Small size
Low productivity
Low Exports Share
Large Size
Group
High productivity
High Exports Share
High-technology
High productivity
Low Exports Share
% of innovating
firms
Testing the “Porter Hypothesis”
Qualitative analysis:
• Environmental concerns stimulate technological innovation
• Relevant role of networking with Technological Centres and of the
industrial associations
• Effectiveness of the innovation is guaranteed through the involvement
of all the value-chain: the need for networking and supply chain management
• Consumer Pressure = Fundamental Factor to implement SD
Quantitative analysis
Industry
Dimension
Productivity
Exportations
+
+
Services
+
-
DMI modelling: Aggregated Data
Canas, Conceição and Ferrão(2002)
Support for inverted “U” EKC:
Model results for observed GDP per capita

country control
Model 1
dmiit  4,16  2,33yit  0,05yit
Model 2
dmiit  12,37 1,18yit  0,03yit
country and year control
GDP per capita (1000 $USA - 1990 prices and PPP )
Maximum DMI per capita:
21940 $USA e 22293 $USA
* Statistical significance at 1% level
* R2=0,27
Random effects
* R2=0,98
Fixed effects
2
2
**
**
Environment and Innovation
Research Conclusions and Policy Implications
Canas, Conceição and Ferrão(2002)
1. Industrialised Economies (1960-1998):
– Aggregated data supports Environmental Kuznets Curve
– Evidence of GDP per capita relative dematerialization trend
?
• Evolution driven by overcome of infrastructure needs
• External events dependence (e.g. energy crisis)
• Influence on economic structure of specific sectors
2. LFR´s: the case of the Portuguese Economy (1960-1998):
– Increase in material use and intensity:
Growth since middle 80’s can be due to infrastructure needs (highways,
wastewater treatment facilities, Vasco da Gama Bridge)
– Based in non renewable and building sector linked materials
Implication 2:
Infrastructures
and urban
concentration
…which routes
for innovation?
Source: Kostof, S. (1991) “ The City Shaped: Urban Patterns and Meanings through History”.
Urban vs. Rural Population
Percentagem
da População
Total awith
Viver em
Cidadesthan
Urban
population
in cities
more
com 750.000 habitantes ou mais - Previsões 2015
750000 people (Forecast for 2015)
100
90
70
1975
60
1985
50
1995
40
2005
30
2015
20
10
ub
ai
D
on
te
vid
eo
va
n
M
ai
t
Ku
w
Ye
re
ity
C
ity
C
Li
sb
on
Pa
na
m
a
Br
az
za
vil
le
Be
iru
t
0
Si
ng
ap
or
e
H
on
g
Ko
ng
Percentagem
80
Cidades
Source: United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2002), “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision – Data Tables and Highlights”,
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2001/wup2001dh.pdf
A case study: Portugal
Source: United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2002), “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision – Data Tables and Highlights”,
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2001/wup2001dh.pdf
The “Donnut” effect
Emerging urbanization trends:
Increasing urban population, but reduced urban density
Our research hyphotesis:
The progressive integration of mobile ICT´s with sustainable mobility
equipments and concepts will facilitate improving well being in urban
regions if adequate incentives and institutions are adaptatively
implemented through a policy learning process
Digital Cities:
which rational?
Source: Woolman, M. (2000) “Digital Information Graphics”
A case study: Kyoto Digital City
Launched by NTT and Kyoto
University in 1998
Relaunched as Digital City Kyoto
Experimentation Forum in 1999
34 services divided in four
categories
Information
Community
Showroom
Laboratory
Personal Pages
GeoLink
3D Kyoto
Source: Ishida, T. (2000) “Kyoto Digital City”
A case study: Amsterdam Digital City
Electronic space for political
discussion and participation
10,000 registered users in the first
weeks
Quickly transformed
The demand for these services
declined steadily
Most important assets discontinued
(content production) or sold (school
portal in 2000.
Source: Besselaar, P. (2000) “Amsterdam Digital City”
Further evidence: network readiness
Source; OECD (2000). Information Technology Outlook, Paris: OECD.
Source; The Global information Technology Report 2002-2003: Readiness for the Network Society, World Economic Forum
• LARGE growth rate of ICT expenditure ( 1992 to 1997)
• A cluster of countries where the effect of increasing GDP on network readiness is
less pronounced and other factors, namely at institutional and contextual level,
have been shown to particularly influence country’s competitiveness
Aveiro 1998...
Bragança 2000
Bragança 1999
Marinha Grande 1999
The “first generation” of digital cities:
Some facts about Portugal
Framework of Analysis
A case study: the region of Alentejo
Source: http://www.alentejodigital.pt/
A system study: Alentejo Digital
“Ilities” have not been considered...
But…
Communities of Practice have been established
Driving factor
Scientific
Education /
Training
Public Health
Managing Public
Risks
Corporate strategy
and
competitiveness
Sample Experiences
Biorede - Biology knowledge network about local
biodiversity, molecular biology and estuary
ecosystems launched at Aveiro (www.biorede.pt )
“Engineering in Portugal”, providing historical data
and information for Basic and Secondary
Schools, as well as university students
(http://www.engenharia.com.pt/)
Health information and communication network of
the Bragança Digital City extension services
(www.espigueiro.pt/servico_cooperativo/servico_c
oop_puh.html )
Water quality monitoring and public diffusion
system (www.simoqua.pt )
Marinha Grande local-industry (moulding, plastics
and glass) network
(www.marinhagrandedigital.com/ )
Remarks
Website developed and managed by
Research Centre
Learning materials and information
exchange between experts, teachers and
students; Website managed by Research
Centre
Portable computers and Internet access to
foster the communication and information
exchange between doctors and patients
Raise public awareness about water
quality, flooding and other public risks
Extranet managed by Technological
Centre
Marinha Grande and Aveiro clearly shows the important mutual relationships that specific
project-based communities have on the facilitation of network societies, but also the fact
that the implementation of digital cities may significantly improve the efficiency of those
communities
Some Conclusions
Value-based networks have the potential to make both public administration and
markets more effective, which helps promoting learning trajectories for the
inclusive development of society, …
... but require effective infrastructures, incentives and adequate institutional
frameworks;
A continuous pubic effort is needed, as also a better understanding of the
effectiveness of the mix of public support mechanisms and private incentives
for the development of digital cities;
In early stage developments, digital cities do require continuous support, together
with adequate monitoring and evaluation procedures.
Mobilization of the Information Society is one of the most critical factors to be
considered in the design, implementation and exploitation of digital cities;
Market mechanisms do not necessarily work at the level of the issues associated
with digital cities, namely in less favourable zones.
They require an effective mix of public support mechanisms that take a relatively
long-term perspective
Digital cities cannot be promoted independently of an innovation policy fostering
capacity and connectivity
A city as a complex system:
...which architecure?
Source: Kostof, S. (1991) “ The City Shaped: Urban Patterns and Meanings through History”.
Source: Koolhas, R. (2000) “ Mutations”
Emerging Trends of Next Generation Cities…
Layer of Analysis
Infrastructure/access
Content/ services
Human and social
Context
From
To
Implications and requirements
Conspicuous objects
Invisible
infrastructure
Embedding ICT infrastructures in urban
daily life, fostering human-centered systems
Fixed access
Roaming
Competitive mobile services and improved
regulatory framework for increased individual
participation
One-way distribution of
information
On-line collaboration
and participation
Specific knowledge of institutional and local
contexts in order to help developing
interactive contents
Web functionalities
Networked Activities
New competences in content and services
development, enhancing user activities and
networks
Technology supply
Mobilization of users
Mobilizing “change agents” to foster
communities of practice, CoP´s, and user
involvement
Standards
Interoperability
Building individual and social competences
through knowledge-based adaptive human
centred environments
FROM DIGITAL CITIES TO MOBILE REGIONS
Diversity/complexity
of information available
Advanced
Data services
Descriptive
contents
Mobile
Regions
Typical/Plain
Digital Cities
Fixed
Narrowband
Density/Quality
of access points
Mobile
Broadband
From Digital Cities to Mobile Regions
Research Question:
What critical factors enable a digital city to become a mobile region? What sort
of public policies to promote these factors?
Dimensions of analysis:
Technological: understand what types of technologies need to be in
place to support a mobile region and which players are willing/should
provide it?
Organizational: understand who are/should be the leaders for the
transition and under what (business) model should they operate?
Behavioral/Geographic: understand how the resident culture shapes the
demand for elements of a mobile region (i.e, contents and services)
and thus affects its development
Others: think about other lines of research that need to be addressed in
order to understand all the facets of this process
Technological Change:
telecommunications
Technological Change:
impact and questions ...
1. Knowledge Diffusion
• corporate competitiveness depends on innovation capacity
• globalization has increased market demand on nre products, processes
and services
QUESTION: inovation/ adoption of new technologies?
2. Knowledge Creation
•Increasing interdisciplinarity and complexity of the knowledge base
•Significant contribution of technology for scientific development
QUESTION: Which, and how to develop the scientific base?
3. Knowledge Transfer
• the need to promote systems of education and training diversified
QUESTION: Which education and training systems?
Knowledge diffusion:
What can we learnt?
Partnerships reflect that:
- competence is built over time through interactive learning
demanding proximity and there are increasing returns in the
production and use of knowledge
- competence is localized – some of the knowledge is tacit and
cannot easily be disentangled from the cluster - it is embodied in
people, organizations and networks
- Competence building should be directed to open minds to new
trajectories
Therefore, the key to understand shared prosperity is a
better understanding of learning and knowledge creation
in the economy.
Knowledge diffusion:
What can we learnt?
Not everything is regional:
…the national system of innovation
• a national technological infrastructure that supports
competence building in all kinds of firms
• a social and legal system that creates trust and
interaction among people: good elements in the system is
not enough. Focus needs to be on the interaction
between the elements.
• a national action to foster public understanding of
science, PUS, fostering “critical minds”...
Implication 1:
Knowledge Production - an evolving scene...
Traditional analysis
CONTEXT
specific community
Emerging questions
application
SCOPE
disciplinary
transdisciplinary
SKILLS
homogeneity
heterogeneity
ORGANIZATION
Hierarchical & Static
(preserved)
Taxonomy:
Gibbons et al
(1994)
MODE 1
Transient & Dynamic
(changing)
MODE 2
Implication 2:
Knowledge Production - Distributed Knowledge bases
1. An increasing number of sources of knowledge
2. A broad base of effective interaction: fostering multiple
knowledge flows
3. Their dynamics lie in the flows of knowledge , which may
not obey to national science policy
4. The number of nodes in the networks accelerates with
time, being unaffected by existing institutional structures
5. Knowledge production exhibits heterogeneous, rather
than homogeneous, growth
Source: Keith Smith (2000)
Promoting Systems of Innovation and Competence Building:
The Technology and Innovation gap…
Clusters and INSTITUTIONAL NETWORKS to
mediate:
•mediate information exchange
• knowledge creation
•capacity for collective action
•potential for interactive learning
•efficacy of voice mechanisms
fostering innovation across diversity
capacity
1. People
2. Knowledge
3. Ideas
Connectivity
(trade)
Infrastructures
Institutions
Incentives
Knowledge for inclusive development…
Most development programmes stand on their ability to
build use knowledge for inclusive development and lack a
relational infrastructure for collective action
This requires a shift :
• from state-led or market-driven processes,
regardless time, space or milieu
• to institutional perspective, looking at the
quality of institutional networks and looking
systematically to infrastructures, Incentives and
Institutions
Which Public Policies?
• supporting existing trends and relationships
Keeping the trajectory...
• renewal of existing trends and relationships
…an important and somewhat more difficult role to play
• creating general framework conditions that support
the emergence of new clusters and relationships
o The need to combine protection with competition!
o The integration of knowledge institutions vs reliable knowledge
• taking specific action to initiate new clusters
…outside what policy makers can do ??
Policy Implications ...
Fostering strategies which promote the integration of
policies, but also the diversification of actions:
– Funding the quality of supply: knowledge production
– Promoting new markets: knowledge diffusion
requires:
• time: long-term perspectives
• context: specific sectorial and/or regional issues
• value: promoting new market strategies
but also:
• people: new competences and social capabilities
• scope: national and/or international
debate….