Transcript Primary Survey Methods

The Multiple Species Inventory and
Monitoring Protocol
A Monitoring Solution for
National Forest System lands
and the Nation
Patricia N. Manley, Ph.D and Bea Van Horne, Ph.D.
USDA Forest Service
Research and Development
International Monitoring Science
and Technology Symposium
September 2004
Growing Need for Biodiversity
Conservation and Monitoring
Johannesburg Earth Summit (2002)
highlighted increasing sustainability
challenges driven by population growth
Recent ecoregional assessments in the US
document a large proportion of all vertebrate
species are of concern and interest
• Columbia River Basin – 37%
• Sierra Nevada – 46%
• Southern California – 38%
• Southern Appalachian Mtns – 29%
Monitoring Shortfalls
GAO (1997) reports that monitoring has
historically been given low priority by the US
Forest Service - not unlike many public land
management agencies
Primary reasons for inadequate monitoring
traced to the lack of….
• clear objectives
• specified sampling design
• standardized monitoring protocols
• commitment to funding
MSIM Objectives
Nationally consistent protocol to provide
spatially and temporally coincident data on
an extensive array of vertebrate and plant
species and their habitats across a broad
scale in time and space
Data to be used to meet monitoring
obligations and information needs to support
Land Management Planning, regional
assessments, and national assessments
(e.g., RPA)
National Framework
Co-located with US Forest Inventory and
Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships
National Framework
Co-located with US Forest Inventory and
Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships
Set of primary survey methods are specified
that are standardized, commonly employed
methods selected to detect a broad spectrum
of plant and animal species
National Framework
Co-located with US Forest Inventory and
Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships
Set of primary survey methods are specified
that are standardized, commonly employed
methods selected to detect a broad spectrum
of plant and animal species
Presence data are the target for population
monitoring, but many methods yield more
information (abundance, population structure)
National Framework
Co-located with US Forest Inventory and
Analysis grid – exists on all land ownerships
Set of primary survey methods are specified
that are standardized, commonly employed
methods selected to detect a broad spectrum
of plant and animal species
Presence data are the target for population
monitoring, but many methods yield more
information (abundance, population structure)
Regional scale design and implementation
(survey methods, sample size, grid density,
resample frequency)
FIA Grid
 Hexagonal grid across entire country
 2400 ha cell size – one monitoring point/cell
Primary Survey Methods:
Birds
Method
Point counts
Nocturnal
broadcast
surveys
Target taxa
Song birds,
woodpeckers
Nocturnal birds
Core
X
Primary Survey Methods:
Mammals
Method
Sherman live
trapping
Track stations with
cameras
Bat mistnetting
Target taxa
Small-bodied
mammals
Medium to large
omnivores-carnivores
Bats
Core
X
Primary Survey Methods:
Amphibians and Reptiles
Method
Visual searches
Aquatic surveys
Target taxa
Amphibians and
reptiles (and other
vertebrates)
Amphibians and
reptiles (and other
vertebrates)
Core
X
Primary Survey Methods:
Vascular Plants
Method
Quadrats
(as per FIA)
Subplots
(as per FIA)
Transects
Target taxa
Core
Herbaceous plants
(sp, cover)
X
Woody plants (sp,
cover, density)
X
All plants (sp, freq,
vertical structure)
X
Monitoring point
Track stations
Lake
Small pond
Bat mist nets
Live trapping
Bird point counts
Meadow
Pitfalls
Aq. vert. surveys
Conifer forest
Plant surveys
Habitat
measures
Riparian
Note: not to scale.
N
Augmented Serially
Alternating Panel (ASAP) Design
Effort: 100 PSUs visited per year
Year
Panel
1
2
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4
5
1
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10
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100
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* =50 PSUs .= 0 PSUs
x=50 PSUs
250 independent PSUs
MSIM Simulated Implementation
We asked the question…
If we implemented 10 primary
survey methods
At each FIA grid point on federal lands
in the Sierra Nevada, and
Based on estimates of the number of points in
each species range and their probability of
detection with the 10 protocols, then
Which species would we expect to observe at
enough points to detect > 20% relative change
between two time periods with 80% confidence
and power?
MSIM Predicted Effectiveness
Over 70% of all vertebrate species were predicted
to be observed frequently enough to detect a 20%
change
Species represented a balance of life history
characteristics, habitat associations, and species
of concern and interest
Manley et al. 2004
Ecological Applications
Sierra Nevada Pilot Study
Sierra
Nevada
Lake Tahoe
FIA hexagon
clusters
California
Pilot Test Objectives
Evaluate effectiveness of survey methods
• Species expected present vs. detected
• Detection probabilities
Evaluate sampling efficiency per point
• Number of sites
• Number of visits per site
Evaluate trend detection capability
Cost, feasibility, sampling options
Preliminary Pilot Results
Species Detections
Group
All species
Focal
MIS
SOC
Birds
48%
58%
50%
40%
Mammals
64%
56%
50%
63%
Amphibians
75%
80%
-
-
Reptiles
67%
67%
-
-
Overall
52%
58%
50%
46%
151 of 290
74 of 127
4 of 8
11 of 24
Survey Effort Evaluation
6
Species Accumulated
5
4
3
1 Site
2
2 Sites
1
3 Sites
0
0
1
2
Number of Visits
3
4
Power Analysis
P1=.5, n=328, m=263, S 1=2, S 2=2, a=.2
Detection probability
Simulated Power
1.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1 P
Change from
1
0.5
Baldwin and King
in prep
Potential Yields from MSIM
Monitoring
At the scale of most national forests
For other land allocations of interest, such
as wilderness
For hundreds of species of plants and
animals
• Proportion of points occupied
• Spatial distribution and site occupancy
• Estimates of abundance for land birds, small
mammals, and plants
• Measures of population structure (age ratio,
sex ratio, reproduction)
Potential Yields from MSIM
Scientific Discovery
 Environmental thresholds for populations
 Community structure and dynamics under
a wide variety of environmental conditions
 Models of suitable habitat at site and
landscape scales for many species
 Indicators and direct measures of
sustainability derived from empirical data