Transcript Conservation Genetics and the Future of Life

CONSERVATION GENETICS AND THE FUTURE OF LIFE
David S. Woodruff, University of California San Diego
[email protected]
THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN NUMBERS
AND RESOURCE USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
100 YEAR PROJECTION – DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE
MANY SPECIES EXTINCTIONS
LOSS OF GENETIC VARIATION IN SMALL FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS
ASCENT OF THE WEEDS & GENERALISTS
LOSS OF POLLINATORS AND DISPERSERS
INCREASED DISEASE & PEST OUTBREAKS
GLOBAL RATES OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION
AGRICULTURE, LOGGING, FUELWOOD, URBANIZATION
CURRENTLY ABOUT 30–40 HECTARES PER MINUTE
HALF A FOOTBALL FIELD PER SECOND
S = CA2
NO. OF SPECIES DOUBLES WITH 10X INCREASE IN AREA
LOG
SP.
NO.
NOW
FUTURE
Log HABITAT AREA
A 10-FOLD DECREASE IN AREA CUTS THE SP. NO. IN HALF.
CURRENT GLOBAL RATE OF DESTRUCTION IS 20–40 ha/minute.
10 MILLION SPECIES OF WHICH 2/3 LIVE IN TROPICS
40% OF TROPICAL FOREST DEGRADED BY 2020
SO >700,000 SP. WILL GO EXTINCT IN TROPICAL
FORESTS AND >1 MILLION SPECIES WORLDWIDE
OVER 20 YEARS = 15,000 SP./YEAR (GUESSTIMATE)
CURRENT MAMMALIAN RATE: 1 EVERY 4 YEARS
COMPARED TO K-T (DINOSAURS) EXTINCTION RATE
OF 1 EVERY 10,000 YEARS.
OVERALL RATE NOW >1,000X BACKGROUND
FAUNAL COLLAPSE DUE TO AREA EFFECT
No.
Sp.
TIME
IF 1.5% OF WORLD IS PARKS AND RESERVES THEN 10% OF
BIOTA WILL SURVIVE IN YEAR 4000
50% OF HIGHER VERTEBRATES WILL GO EXTINCT IN NEXT 500
– 2000 YEARS
PREDICTION: 5–10% LOSS BY 2020
CAUSES OF
EXTINCTION/THREAT
HABITAT LOSS & ALTERATION
OVER-EXPLOITATION
SPECIES INTRODUCTIONS
PREDATORS/PATHOGENS
COMPETITORS
SECONDARY EFFECTS
COMMENSALS
POLLINATORS/DISPERSERS
PESTICIDES
GENETIC VARIABILITY IS CORRELATED
WITH FITNESS IN SOME CASES
DEVELOPMENTAL STABILITY
GROWTH RATE & SIZE
METABOLIC EFFICIENCY
FERTILITY
SURVIVAL OF NEW DISEASES
SURVIVAL IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
LACK OF GENETIC VARIATION IN A POPULATION
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED FITNESS AND
EXTINCTION
GENETIC PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
VARIABILITY
CHEETAH, PERE DAVID’S DEER, ARABIAN ORYX
INBREEDING DEPRESSION
MARTHA’S VINYARD HEATH HEN, KOALA
REPRODUCTION
DUSKY SEA-SIDE SPARROW
OUTBREEDING DEPRESSION
AUSTRIAN IBEX, SPIDER MONKEYS, SONORAN MINNOWS
DEFINING EVOLUTIONARILY SIGNIFICANT UNITS (ESU’s)
CHIMPANZEES
AFRICAN ELEPHANTS
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND LOGGERHEAD SHRIKE
GENETIC CENSUSING
AFRICAN FOREST ELEPHANTS
GENETIC EROSION
MONITORED in SMALL MAMMALS on FOREST
FRAGMENTS on ISLANDS in a NEW RESERVOIR in
KHLONG SAENG Wildlife Sanctuary, THAILAND.
DECLINE OF BIOMES AND BIOTAS
WHAT IS HAPPENING? SPECIES LOSSES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH IN
LAST 65M YRS. AND INCREASING. MAYBE 30K/YR NOW.
TAXONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES: WILL ECOLOGICAL SERVICES FAIL?
EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES: IS EVOLUTION OVER?
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES: RAPID BUT < THAT COPED
WITH IN LAST 2M YRS.
IS IT UNPREDEDENTED? NO, NOT YET A MASS EXTINCTION
IS IT BAD? YES, & INEXCUSABLE TO LET IT BECOME A M’EXTINCTION
RECOMMENDATIONS:
ARM THE SCIENTISTS – ALERT THE PUBLIC
DO ANYTHING TO BUT TIME
CONSEQUENCES FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS
THRESHOLDS AND ALTERED STATES
DISEASE AND PEST ERUPTION
CHANGES IN BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
KEYSTONE SPECIES
FOOD WEBS
SHORTENING OF FOOD CHAINS
ASCENT OF THE MICROBES
INCREASE IN NUTRIENT ENRICHED NICHES
UNPREDICTABILITY – NON-LINEAR EFFECTS
SURPRISES – ANTARCTIC SURGE
WHAT ARE WE DOING WRONG?
HABITAT LOSS
HABITAT DEGRADATION
HABITAT FRAGMENTATION
HABITAT SIMPLIFICATION: PHYSICAL & ECOLOGICAL
HOMOGENIZATION: EXT OF ENDEMICS / ASCENT OF DOMESTICATED/
WEEDS AND GENERALISTS AND
COMMENSALS
ORGANISMS
OVER-EXPLOITATION
GENETIC MODIFICATION
THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN
NUMBERS AND RESOURCE USE
100 YEAR PROJECTION
SPECIES EXTINCTIONS
LOSS OF VARIATION IN SMALL FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS
ASCENT OF THE WEEDS & GENERALISTS
CONTINUED CLIMATIC CHANGE
DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE
1000 YEAR PROJECTION
MORE EXTINCTIONS
FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SPECIES
LOSS OF GENETIC VARIABILITY
FRAGMENTATION OF GEOGRAPHIC RANGES
REDUCTION OF Ne
ELIMINATION OF PREDATORS AND COMPETITORS
ELIMINATION OF POLLINATORS AND DISPERSERS
NEW “DISHARMONIOUS” COMMUNITIES [ASSEMBLAGES OF
SPECIES]
ADAPTIVE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
RECOMMENDATIONS
REDUCE HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH & RESOURCE USE
IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL EDUCATION
PROMOTE RESEARCH
ON ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES SO AS TO IMPROVE SPECIES
LEVEL CONSERVATION
ON REL’N BETWEEN GENETIC VARIATION & POP. VIABILITY
DEVELOP GLOBAL SYSTEM TO FOSTER PROTECTION OF
FRESHWATER AND MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
PROMOTE THE RE-DESIGN OF PROTECTED AREAS TO
ACCOMMODATE PREDICTED CLIMATIC CHANGE
GENERAL DILEMMAS
TOO FEW PLANS – FOR SPECIES OR COMMUNITIES
CHOOSING AND JUSTIFYING – CHARISMA, UTILITY, KEYSTONE…..
SPECIES IN ISOLATION vs. SPECIES IN HABITATS
INSTITUTIONS AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT
PARKS AND RESERVES
ZOOS, AQUARIA & BOTANICAL GARDENS
EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS
OWNERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT OF THE WILD
BIODIVERSITY CRISIS COULD NOT HAVE COME AT A
WORSE TIME
NOW CLEAR THAT:
•TRADITIONAL NATIONALISM DOES NOT SERVE OUR INTERESTS.
•WHEN A LEAF FALLS IN BRAZIL IT DOES IMPACT US HERE.
•LIVING THE ECOLOGICAL LIE (GHOST ACERAGE) HAS A PRICE
•WE ARE LIVING HIGH, AS IF WE HAD 10 EARTHS
•SHOVELING COAL ON A RUNAWAY TRAIN ONLY MAKES THINGS
WORSE
•YOU CAN’T EAT GNP [AS TRADITIONALLY DEFINED]
•ECONOMISTS AND ENGINEERS SHOULD HAVE TO STUDY
ECOLOGY
•ATTITUDES TOWARDS WILDLIFE ARE DIVERSE AND OFTEN ILLINFORMED, MANIPULATED, AND/OR IRRATIONAL
SOLUTION OF THE BIODIVERSITY CRISIS CAN COME ONLY WITH
THE SOLUTION OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT
SUSTAINABILITY
STEWARDSHIP
BIONEERING – THE INTERVENTIVE GENETIC AND ECOLOGICAL
MANAGEMENT OF SPECIES, COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEMS IN
A POST-NATURAL WORLD
ANALYTIC DELIBERATION – SCIENCE-BASED PROCESS OF
CONSENSUS BUILDING