Transcript Slides - University of Southampton

A generic risk assessment approach
for multiple stressors & exposures
Geoff Frampton, Guy Poppy, Jamie Sutherland
Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Group
School of Biological Sciences
University of Southampton, UK
Funded by
Background (1)
Limitations of the Farm-Scale Evaluations (FSE) of
genetically-modified herbicide-tolerant crops:
Intensive monitoring, hence expensive (£5.5 million)
Monitoring unfocused, hence inefficient use of resources
Can we optimize targeting of the monitoring resources to where
they are needed ?
Background (2)
Discrepancy in current agricultural risk assessment:
Currently, agricultural risks are assessed routinely
only for GM crops and pesticides
Other more environmentally damaging agricultural practices do not
require risk assessments
(UK Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE), 2006)
Proposal: all new (or changed) agricultural practices should be
assessed for environmental risk
How to assess risks of new or changed
agricultural practices ?
Source – pathway – receptor principle
Pathway
Source
Receptor
(exposure)
Response
effect
Source – pathway – receptor principle
Pathway
Source
Receptor
(exposure)
Response
effect
REGIONAL risk assessment – e.g. invasive species in marine coastal area (Landis 2003)
Imported
invasive
species
invasion
invasion
7 receiving
habitats
9 predicted
impacts
effect
effects
7
23
mechanistic
models
mechanistic
models
Risk Analysis 24 (4) 2003
Source – pathway – receptor principle
Pathway
Source
Receptor
(exposure)
Response
effect
SPATIALLY EXPLICIT risk assessment – e.g. military landscape (Andersen et al. 2004)
Spatially
explicit
hazards
Indicator
species
Co-occurrence
Responses
effects
Risk Analysis 24 (5) 2004
Source – pathway – receptor principle
Pathway
Source
Receptor
(exposure)
Response
effect
TRAIT BASED risk assessment – e.g. arable farmland (Butler et al. 2007)
Affected
ecological
resources
Required
ecological
resources
Co-occurrence
Responses
Effects
depend
upon
resilience
Science 315 (5810) 2007
Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example)
Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor)
DIET
HABITAT
Summer
Winter
Summer
Winter
NEST SITES
Soil inverts
Soil inverts
Crop
Crop
Crop
Epigeic inverts
Epigeic inverts
Margin
Margin
Margin
Seeds
Seeds
Hedgerow
Hedgerow
Hedgerow
Plant material
Plant material
Vertebrates
Vertebrates
Summer
Winter
Summer
Winter
DIET
HABITAT
NEST SITES
Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source)
Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example)
Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor)
DIET
HABITAT
Summer
Winter
Summer
Winter
NEST SITES
Soil inverts
Soil inverts
Crop
Crop
Crop
Epigeic inverts
Epigeic inverts
Margin
Margin
Margin
Seeds
Seeds
2/3
Hedgerow
1/3
Hedgerow
Hedgerow
Plant material
Plant material
1/5
Vertebrates
2/5
Vertebrates
Summer
Winter
DIET
Score = 1.6
Summer
Winter
HABITAT
NEST SITES
Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source)
Validation of risk scores for past agricultural changes (1970-2000)
(spring to autumn sowing, increased agrochemicals, loss of non-cropped habitat,
land drainage, switch from hay to silage, grassland intensification)
Butterflies (24 spp):
Population growth = 7.212 – 3.525 × risk score (p = 0.001)
Birds (62 spp):
Population growth = 0.009 – 0.0064 × risk score (p < 0.001)
Broadleaf plants (190 spp):
Population growth = 0.008 – 0.004 × risk score (p = 0.001)
Bumblebees (14 spp)
4
Mammals (44 spp)
3
3.5
2.5
3
Risk
score
2.5
2
2
1.5
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
Declining
Possibly
declining
Stable /
increasing
Declining
Possibly
declining
Stable /
increasing
Trait-based risk assessment for introduction of Miscanthus bioenergy crops
Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment
Individual species
Predict population trend
Predict conservation status
Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment
Predict population trend
Individual species
Predict conservation status
Communities
Example: change from spring to autumn cereals
decrease
stable
0%
40%
increase
Plants (190 spp)
Mammals (44 spp)
Birds (62 spp)
Butterflies (24 spp)
Bumblebees (14 spp)
20%
60%
80%
Proportion of species
100%
Summary
Trait-based risk assessment is a potentially powerful approach
for assessing agricultural risks (compatible with tiered approach)
Risk assessors should define what they require the risk
assessment to deliver (need for clear assessment endpoints
and conceptual models)
Questions arising…
How to proceed in the absence of existing population data?
Can trait-based RA be applied to ecological functions?
How can risk assessment be integrated into assessment of
agricultural sustainability?