Transcript Presentation: Determining Objectives using Decision Science

Determining Objectives
PrOACT
An Overview of Structured Decision Making
Introduction to Structured
Module C Decision Making
USGS & USFWS/NCTC
Module Developed by:
Jean Fitts Cochrane, IAP
World Services,
Patuxent
Module
Developed
by:Wildlife Research Center
Angela Matz, USFWS Fairbanks Field Office
Jean Fitts Cochrane,
IAP World Services, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Jennifer A. Szymanski, USFWS Midwest Region
Angela Matz, USFWS Fairbanks Field Office
James E. Lyons, USFWS Division of Migratory Bird Management
Jennifer
A. Szymanski,
USFWSPatuxent
Midwest
Region
Sarah J. Converse
& Michael
C. Runge, USGS
Wildlife
Research Center
James E. Lyons, USFWS Division of Migratory Bird Management
Sarah J. Converse & Michael C. Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research
Center
Determining Objectives
• Objectives are what you really care about
• Well defined objectives are critical
o Create alternatives
o Compare alternatives
o Choose pertinent information
o Explain your decision to others
• All structured decision steps build
from here
“If you don’t know where you’re going,
Any road will get you there.” --Lewis Carroll
Setting Objectives
We will review the following:
1. Articulate goals & concerns
2. Convert goals & concerns to objectives
3. Structure objectives
4. Create measurable attributes for each objective
5. Repeat as needed
1. Articulate goals & concerns
Think about:
• What is the problem?
• Why is it hard to make this decision?
• What are the critical concerns?
• What’s wrong with the current situation?
• What is the best possible outcome for me?
• What would be the best possible outcome for
others?
• What is the worst thing that could happen?
• If you don’t make a decision, what will happen?
• What are you ultimately trying to achieve?
• What does this issue look like from other
perspectives (e.g., other stakeholders)?
• Think of possible solutions & ask “why”?
o How would you explain them to others?
o What is good and bad about these solutions?
o What constraints and guidelines are restricting
your choices?
• Make concerns (and subsequent objectives)
distinct and independent
2. Convert values into objectives
• Rephrase values statements as active, directional
objectives
Hope to Achieve
Potential Objective
Improve fishing
Maximize recreational fishing
success
Reduce led consumption by
loons
Maximize persistence of loon
populations
Maintain native invertebrate and
fish communities in lakes
Avoid release of invasive
species and protect native
species
Increased coordination
Minimize redundancies
Reduce cost and manage within Minimize cost
budget
Setting Objectives in the
Public Sector
Sources of concerns and objectives
• Government structure
o Congress
o Current administration
o Judicial systems
o Agency
• General & specific constituencies
o The Public
o Local stakeholders
o Other interested parties
Government mandates
• Broad outlines and direction, molded by legal and
social constraints
• Developed from:
o Resource management laws
o Regulations
o Guidance and policy
o Legal precedent
• Should be used to set
specific objectives
Step 3. Structure Objectives
We’ll discuss how to:
3a) Classify objectives
3b) Distinguish types of objectives
3c) Create an objectives hierarchy
Step 3a. Classify objectives
1. Fundamental
o the basic reason for caring about the decision
(essential)
2. Means
o influence the achievement of fundamental
objectives (not necessarily essential)
3. Process
o concern how the decision is made rather than what
decision is made
4. Strategic
o higher level – objectives covering all decisions made
by the organization or person
Process Objectives
• “…especially in public decisions made by
government, both what is chosen and how the
alternative is chosen are important. In other words,
the process of decision-making in these situations
matters…”
• Recognize differences between objectives for what
decision to make and objectives for how to make it
– the Process Objectives
• What examples have you encountered and how
did you deal with these?
Strategic Objectives
Conserve,
restore, sustain
resources
Identify
shared
priorities
Facilitate
coordination
Leverage
resources
• Example: Organizational Mission
• Influenced by other decisions but unlikely to be
achieved by them
• Focus is on larger mission, mandate or image
• Provides guidance for all decisions made
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Fundamental Objectives
How do you know what’s fundamental?
•Must be controllable – alternatives appropriate to
this context actually influence the degree to which
this objective is achieved
o Not too broad or high level to be beyond control
with alternatives available for this context
•Must be essential – relevant to every alternative
o Not too narrow and can’t be substituted with
something else (e.g., not just one possible means)
•Thus, what is “fundamental” depends on the decision
context
Desired properties of objectives
• Complete
o Don’t leave out any areas of concern (objectives)
• Nonredundant
o Redundant objectives can lead to “double-counting”
• Concise
o Focus on the core issues
• Specific
o Consequences are clear; attributes can be readily
identified
• Understandable
o The objectives do not suffer from linguistic uncertainty
3b. Distinguish fundamental
and means objectives
• Fundamental and means objectives must be
separated to continue the SDM process. If not…
o Leads to skewed weighting of your objectives
o Limits creative problem solving
Fundamental objectives
• What is the bottom line? Fundamental value?
• What do you really care about in this decision?
Example: increase loon populations
Means objectives
• What methods will get you to the “ends”?
• How will you achieve the fundamental value?
Example: minimize lead in fishing tackle
Getting to Fundamental Objectives
• Ask, and keep asking, “Why Is That Important?”
• When your answer is:
o “Just because”
o “It’s the law”
o “This is important”
o “Inherent value”
→You have reached a fundamental objective.
Getting to Means Objectives
• Ask, and keep asking, “How?”
o How can I address this concern?
o How can I measure success?
o How can I make the stakeholders happy?
• The answers may help you find creative
alternatives.
FUNDAMENTAL
Ask “How”
Ask “Why”
MEANS
3c. Create Objectives Hierarchies
• Fundamental objectives may be parts of a broader,
more fundamental objective
• To sort out the hierarchy among fundamental
objectives, ask: “Is this part of something larger?”
Conserve Threatened Species
Maintain
Species
Abundance
Maintain
Species
Distribution
Maintain
Genetic
Diversity
3c. Create Objectives Hierarchies
• Another decision context may add fundamental
objectives
Conserve Threatened Species
Maintain
Species
Abundance
Maintain
Species
Distribution
Maintain
Genetic
Diversity
Follow Agency
Direction
Minimize
Regulatory
Burden
DRAFT - Objectives for moose management
Fundamental
Example
Forest
sustainability
(+)
Commercial
use of
natural
resources (+)
Ecologica
l sustainability
(+)
Timber
product
s
industry
(+)
Biodiversit
y (+)
Timber
production (+)
Hunt
quality
(+)
“Wildness”
(+)
Huntin
g
opportunities
(+)
Hunte
r
succes
s (+)
Long-term
popn.
viability of
moose (+)
Public
acceptance of
DNR mgt. of
moose (+)
Preserve
MN heritage
(+)
Provide outdoor recreation
(+)
MN’s
sense of
place
(+)
Cultural
values of
tribal
members
(+)
Integration of
social sci. &
moose mgt.
(+)
Communicatio
n with public
(+)
Viewing
opportunities (+)
Yellow = Strategic
Nearboreal
forest (+)
Abundance of moose
(+)
Green = Fund.
Means
Blue = Means
Quality of
moose
habitat (+)
Effects of
disease (-)
Continued below…
Effects of
hunting on
moose (&
perception of)
(-)
Effects of
predation ()
4. Create Measurable Attributes
• Attributes are how you measure performance
• You need attributes for fundamental objectives that
are at the lowest level of the hierarchy
• Attributes provide the evaluation criteria for how
well your alternatives serve your objectives.
• units you use to measure the consequences (outcomes)
of decision alternatives
• Attribute = Performance Measure = Criterion
An attribute includes:
•Content (what you’ll measure)
•Preferred direction of the measured content
o increase or decrease
o The aspiration
o maximize or minimize? a particular threshold
(absolute or relative)?
• Lunch
• Reconvene (on time) at
1:15pm
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