Transcript Power Point Description - Project Web Sites

Assessing Ecological
Economic Impacts of
Landscape Change in
Montana’s Flathead County
CARES
Tony Prato
Professor of Ecological Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
Research Team
• Tony Prato (PI), Anthony Clark, Kris Dolle,
Center for Agricultural, Resource and
Environmental Systems, University of MissouriColumbia (economics and geography)
• Ric Hauer, Flathead Lake Biological Station, The
University of Montana (limnology)
• Dan Fagre and Gregg Pederson, USGS
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
(ecology)
• Ramanathan Sugumaran, Department of
Geography, University of Northern Iowa
(geography)
Project Goals
• Improve the capacity of stakeholders to make
more informed decisions about future growth
and development in Flathead County.
• Determine the effectiveness of alternative
policies for alleviating potentially adverse
economic and ecological impacts of future
growth and development in Flathead County.
Project Objectives
Objective 1. Identify historical changes in land
cover and their implications for wildlife habitat.
Objective 2. Develop an ecosystem landscape
modeling system (ELMS) to evaluate how future
growth and development are likely to affect land
cover, wildlife habitat, and economic activity.
Objective 3. Create a Web-based spatial
decision support system that facilitates
stakeholder use of ELMS.
Study Area
Land Stats for Flathead County
• 5,253 mi2; about the size of CT
• 87% of the county is public land
• 80% if the land area is classified as
mountainous with slopes in excess of 45%
• Only 17% of the 556,177 acres of private
land is zoned
• 2 million acres is forested
• 1 million acres is designated wilderness
Natural Capital
Bob Marshall-Great
Bear-Scapegoat
Wilderness
complex, Flathead
National Forest, and
the west side of
Glacier National
Park.
Glacier National Park
is a Biosphere
Reserve, and part of
Waterton-Glacier
International Peace
Park, which is is a
World Heritage Site
and the world’s first
international peace
park.
Ecosystem contains highly diverse flora and
fauna with 300 species of aquatic insects, 22
native and introduced species of fish, and nearly
all of the large mammals of North America.
T & E Species
• Threatened
–
–
–
–
–
–
grizzly bear
bald eagle
Canada lynx
bull trout
water howellia
spalding catchfly
• Endangered
– whooping crane
– gray wolf
Public Significance of Wildlife
The general public has a strong sense that
too much development will destroy wildlife
habitats.
The North Fork valley,
on the west side of
Glacier National Park,
is considered one of
the wildest valleys
with the highest
concentration of
grizzly bear in the
lower 48 states.
The Flathead River has
97.9 miles designated
as wild, 40.7 miles as
scenic, and 80.4 miles
as recreational.
Flathead Lake is one
of the 300 largest
lakes in the world and
the largest body of
freshwater in the
western United
States.
Economy
• Economy of Flathead County is directly
linked to the region’s natural resources.
• Labor earnings in natural resource
industries (i.e., lumber and wood products,
agriculture, and mining) dropped from a
high of $97 million in 1993 to $75 million in
2000.
• 40% of all personal income is from nonlabor sources (i.e., transfer payments from
investments, retirement accounts, and
social security).
• Overall economy is strong and continues
to grow due in part to a steady wave of
new migrants and seasonal residents that
are attracted to the area’s abundant
natural resources.
• Per capita and median incomes are
steadily rising, poverty is falling, and
unemployment is at a 30-year low.
Growth and Development
Flathead
Valley and
outlying
areas are
losing open
spaces due
to rapid
growth and
development.
Challenge
• Urban sprawl is the greatest contributor to
the degradation of Flathead County’s
natural resources.
• The challenge is to create a balance
between land conversion and conservation
of the natural environment.
Methods
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Remote sensing
Land cover classification
Geographic information systems
Land use change analysis
Alternative futures analysis
Economic impact analysis
Landscape ecology
Wildlife habitat and wetland assessment
Surveys
Alternative Futures Analysis
• It is difficult for planners and stakeholders
to foresee the potential ecological and
economic consequences of their choices,
policies, and plans because no one knows
for sure what the future will bring.
• Since no single vision of the future is likely
to be accurate or superior to all others, it is
useful to model a set of alternative futures
for a region that encompasses a spectrum
of possibilities.
• Alternative futures analysis allows
stakeholders to assess the possible
ecosystem and economic consequences
of alternative assumptions about future
growth and development.
Other Applications
•
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•
Monroe County, PA
Region of Camp Pendleton, CA
Willamette River Basin, Oregon
Southern Rocky Mountains, AL
Mojave Desert, CA
Iowa Corn Belt
Upper San Pedro River Basin, AZ and
Sonora (Mexico)
Design of Alternative Futures
•
Three scenarios for growth rates in 11
industries for 2004 to 2014, and 2014 to
2024.
•
Three land use policy scenarios for
residential and commercial-industrial
development, infrastructure expansion,
and natural resource conservation.
Nine Alternative Futures
Economic
growth
rate
scenario
Land use policy scenario
Unrestrictive
Moderately
restrictive
Highly restrictive
High
1. High growth,
unrestrictive land
use
2. High growth,
moderately
restrictive land use
3. High growth, highly
restrictive land use
Moderate
4. Moderate
growth,
unrestrictive land
use
5. Moderate growth,
moderately
restrictive land use
6. Moderate growth, highly
restrictive land use
Low
7. Low growth,
unrestrictive land
use
8. Low growth,
moderately land
use
9. Low growth, highly
restrictive land use
Land Conversion
Residential and commercial/industrial
development (RECID) model used to
simulate the conversion of land from
undeveloped uses to developed uses for
the nine scenarios.
RECID Model
Historical
land cover
Future
growth
analysis
Agricultural,
forested, and
other undeveloped
uses
Residential and
commercial/industrial
uses
Land use
policies
Parcel
suitability
Historical Land Cover
(populated areas of county)
Classification
based on
Landsat TM
imagery.
1982
88% accuracy
2002
Future Growth Rates: 2004-2014
Industry
Annual average percentage growth rate
High
Moderate
Low
Farming and Ranching
0.25
0.22
0.15
Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery
0.09
-0.14
-0.32
Mining
16
12
8
Construction
11
8
5
Manufacturing (including forest
products)
7
5
3
Transportation, Communications and
Public Utilities
4
2
0
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
10
8
6
Services
11
9
7
Government
10
8
5
Wholesale Trade
9
5
3
Retail Trade
9
5
3
Future Growth Rates: 2014-2024
Industry
Annual average percentage growth rate
High
Moderate
Low
Farming and Ranching
0.13
0.11
0.08
Agricultural, Forestry, and
Fishery
-0.05
-0.07
-0.16
8
6
4
Construction
5.5
4
2.5
Manufacturing (including forest
products)
3.5
2.5
1.5
Transportation, Communications
and Public Utilities
2
1
0
Finance, Insurance, and Real
Estate (FIRE)
5
4
3
5.5
4.5
3.5
5
4
2.5
Wholesale Trade
4.5
2.5
1.5
Retail Trade
4.5
2.5
1.5
Mining
Services
Government
IMPLAN Analysis
• IMPLAN is used to estimate changes in
employment in each of the 11 industries
for the three growth scenarios from 2004
to 2014 and 2014 to 2024.
• Changes in total employment and other
information used to estimate additional
space required for commercial facilities
and additional housing units required.
Sample of Input-Output for IMPLAN Analysis
User Input for Low
Growth Scenario
2.5 persons per
household
1.50 population to job
ratio
1.18 housing units to
households ratio
Average yearly growth
rates by industry for low
growth rates
Model Output for Low
Growth Scenario
Aggregate yearly
growth rate for all
industries = 4.81%
Total increase in jobs =
48,997
New resident labor
force = 21,520
New housing units
required = 21,885
Land Use Policies
• mix of new home types
• densities for new home types
• setbacks of new homes and commercial/industrial
developments from wetlands and water bodies
• restrictions on new residential and commercial/industrial
development in other environmentally sensitive areas
(wetlands, streams, rivers, lakes, ponds, and shallow
aquifers)
• expansion of infrastructure (roads, sewer, power, water,
etc.)
• percentage of remaining farmland and forestland in
conservation easements
Parcel Suitability for
Commercial/Industrial
Development
• Minimum acceptable distances from
utilities, major highways, and population
centers.
Parcel Suitability for Residential
Development
1. Maximum acceptable distance from utilities
2. Minimum acceptable distance from a major highway
3. Maximum acceptable distance from the edge of
town
4. Minimum acceptable distances from eight amenities:
mountains, lake, river, preserve, golf course, ski resort, park,
and forest
5. Elevation from valley floor
6. Minimum acceptable distances from seven
disamenities: industrial facility or park, mining facility, trailer
park, busy highway, commercial center, railroad tracks, and
airport
• Suitability of parcels for residential and
commercial-industrial development is scored
and ranked using a multiple attribute evaluation
(MAE) method.
• The MAE method combines the values of the
attributes of parcels and the weights assigned to
attributes by stakeholders.
Wildlife Habitat Assessment
Two scales of analysis:
– Populated areas of the county, and
– Flathead River corridor between
Columbia Falls and Kalispell.
County Habitat Assessment
The assessment considers:
• Potential habitat for individual species
• Potential habitat for multiple species
Potential Habitat for
Individual Species
Step 1. Divide the landscape into
polygons and evaluate habitat potential
(HP) for species j in time period t using
the following area-weighted potential
habitat score:
n

i 1
HPjt = ΣiaiSijt,
ai = area of polygon i,
Σiai = total area covered by all polygons, and
Sijt = potential habitat score for polygon i and
species j in time period t calculated by
taking the geometric mean of habitat
suitability attributes for that species (e.g.,
elevation, slope, land cover).
Alternative futures affect Sijt.
Step 2. Divide the
HPjt scores for an
alternative future
into potential
habitat suitability
classes, and map
(using GIS)
changes in classes
over the three time
periods (2002,
2014, and 2024).
Early winter habitat for woodland caribou
(Rangifer tarandus caribou) near Revelstoke,
British Columbia
Deuling et al. (2000)
Step 3. Use APACK to calculate landscape
metrics for the three highest potential
habitat suitability classes for Hjt (e.g.,
patch number, size, and density).
Step 4. Combine changes in the
landscape metrics with habitat suitabilitylandscape pattern associations for the
species to determine changes over time in
potential habitat for that species.
Potential Habitat for
Multiple Species
Index-based multispecies conservation
value for polygon i in time period t is:
MCV(P)it = Σj Gj HP*ijt/Σj Gj
Gj = an endangerment or threat index
value for species j, and
HP*ijt = the standardized (to the [0, 1]
interval) value of HPijt = ai Sijt.
Area-weighted potential, multiple species
habitat scores at time t:
MCV(P)t = Σiai MCV(P)it
Columbia
Falls
Flathead
River
Kalispell
Flathead River
Assessment
The hydrogeomorphic
(HGM) approach to
functional assessment for
the Northern Rocky
Mountains is used to
evaluate how changes
over time in landscape
fragmentation influence
the functioning of
wetlands in the river
corridor.
Data from hyperspectral and multispectral
images used in the HGM approach.
Area in
next
slide
This hyperspectral
image of the
Flathead River
corridor is
composed of 21
separate flightline
images that have
been color
balanced. Each
image consists of
20 bands with
wavelengths of
420-950 nm.
Each multispectral
image is composed of
three bands that have
a resolution of
between 5 and 10 cm.
Vegetation Classification
Economic Impact Assessment
• IMPLAN used to estimate the total value of
goods and services produced, and total
employment in 2014 and 2024 for the
three growth scenarios.
• Estimated employment and other
information used to estimate additional
housing units, and space requirements for
commercial-industrial developments in
2014 and 2024.
Sample Input and Output for
Economic Model
User Input for Low Growth
Scenario
Model Output for Low
Growth Scenario
2.5 persons per household
1.50 population to job
ratio
Aggregate yearly growth
rate for all industries =
4.81%
Total increase in jobs =
48,997
1.18 housing units to
households ratio
New resident labor force
= 21,520
Average yearly growth rates New housing units
by industry for low growth
required = 21,885
rates
Spatial Decision Support System
•
An SDSS for natural resource
management is a computer-based tool
that integrates decision, ecological, and
GIS analysis and mapping.
•
The SDSS for ELMS will enhance the
capacity of decision makers to make
more informed ecological economic
assessments and decisions.
• In particular, the SDSS will allow
stakeholders to interactively map the study
area, and use ELMS to simulate economic
and wildlife habitat impacts of alternative
futures.
Interactive Mapping
Click on
desired
layers
Zooming In Feature
Area of
this
image
Parcel Data: Interactive Query
http://cares.missouri.edu/montana/
http://cares.missouri.edu/montana/
Questions and Comments