Transcript Slide 1

The Use of Conceptual Models in
the Solano Co. HCP/NCCP
Rebecca Doubledee
LSA Associates Inc.
Talk Outline
• What is a model?
• What is the benefit of using models in the Solano Co.
HCP/NCCP?
• Where do conceptual models fit into the NCCP/HCP
Conservation Program and adaptive management
feedback loop?
• What are the key components of a managementoriented conceptual model?
• I will go over an example of a conceptual model
developed for the California tiger salamander
• Hierarchy of models: how we will go from species to
natural community models
• Following strategy outlined by Atkinson et al. (2004)
– Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management
context for regional multiple species conservation plans
What is a model?
• A model is a simplified description of a
complex entity or process such as a
species or ecosystem.
Benefits of Using Conceptual
models
• Summarize existing knowledge and
•
•
•
•
hypotheses about a system
Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties that
require further research and important
components of the system to monitor
Communicate understanding of the system
Facilitate outside review of the conservation
and management programs
Link conservation plan goals and objectives
to causes of change and to management
activities and program actions
– i.e. complete the adaptive management loop.
Where do conceptual models fit into the
NCCP/HCP adaptive management feedback loop?
Help complete
the adaptive
management loop
Sections 3, 4 and 5
of the Solano Co.
HCP/NCCP
Key Components of a management-oriented
conceptual model
State of Environment: the condition of ecological processes, habitats, and
Program
Actions:
these
include
the conservation
of
the
NCCP/HCP
species
(and
their
inter-relationships),
which
arestrategy
directly
or the
indirectly
Pressures:
Effects:
these
agents
are
that
changes
eitherresulting
promote
from
or inhibit
either
change
Pressures
in
or state
of the
and
ongoing
management
activities
expected
to
impact
the
state
of
addressed
by program
objectives.
environment.
Program Actions
Pressures
can be anthropogenic or natural and may include
Environment
or
Pressures.
natural constraints such as seed dispersal.
State of Environment:
California Tiger Salamander
Conceptual Model
Adults migrate to aquatic breeding sites during fall and early
winter then migrate back into upland habitat. Less than 1% are
expected to move more than 0.7 miles. Multiple breeding sites
should be within 0.7 miles of each other. Key population
parameter is number of returning females.
Adult salamanders are terrestrial,
living underground in mammal
Burrows. Need at least
330 acres of upland habitat
to support a viable population
Breeding
Adults
Eggs
and
Larvae
Adults
Juveniles emerge in early summer
and seek shelter in rodent burrows.
95% of subadults were found within
1968 ft (600m) of breeding habitat.
Juveniles/
subadults
Eggs are laid singly or
In clumps on both
submerged and emergent
vegetation or in ponds
without vegetation, on the
bottom or on submerged
debris in shallow water.
Larvae are 10.5 mm in length when
hatched and vary from 41 to 78 mm
at metamorphosis. Metamorphosis
occurs in late spring or early summer,
60 to 94 days after the eggs are laid.
Larvae need ponds with a hydroperiod
of approximately 3 months or more
Steps to Developing Natural
Community Conceptual Models
1. Identify the needs and important
pressures affecting covered species
2. Combine species models to identify the
important pressures affecting natural
communities
3. Develop a Conservation and
Management Program that addresses
the needs of the covered species and the
natural communities.
Step 2 Combine Species Models
Species 1
Species 2
+
Species n
+…+
=
Natural Community Conceptual Model
Primary
Pressures
(Land Use
Practices)
Secondary
Pressures
(Consequences of
Land Use Practices)
Habitat
Variables/
Ecological
Processes
Covered
Species
Affected
Valley Floor Grassland and Vernal Pool
Community Model
Fairy Shrimp
Community
Models
Mountain
Plover
Plant/Insect
Community
Models
Insect
Community
Models
Plant
Community
Models
Burrowing
Owl
CTS
Model
Multiple Community Assemblages Model
Multiple Natural Mommunity
Assemblages Model
(Landscape Model)
Valley Floor
Grassland and
Vernal Pool
Community
Model
Costal Marshes
Model
Upland
Community
Model
Riparian and
Freshwater
Marshes
Model
Summary
Conceptual models will help to…..
– Summarize existing knowledge and hypotheses
–
about the covered species and natural communities
Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties that
require further research and important components
of the system to monitor
– Communicate understanding of the system
– Facilitate outside review of the conservation
and management programs
– Complete the adaptive management loop