Transcript Where the Birds At? - University of Michigan

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Where the Birds At?
http://www.yarapariverlodge.com/macaws.jpg
An experiment on the declining
populations of bird species in Brazil
and their connection to deforestation.
By: Tyler Greer, Sean Ratchford, and Seth Welton
Introduction
 Why are Bird Populations declining in
Brazil?
 How is deforestation and the decline of
bird populations related?
 What implications will this have for the
rest of the world?
 What must be done about it?
Hypothesis
 Deforestation has led to a decrease in
Bird populations in Brazil. By decreasing
the amount of deforestation that occurs in
Brazil annually, the rate of extinction in
Brazil will decrease.
http://www.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm
Methods
 Why is Brazil Important?
 Deforestation Effects on Brazil
 By using graphs and Stella models a
correlation can be shown that will link
deforestation to decreasing bird
populations and species extinction.
Why is Brazil Important?
 Amazon Rainforest
 Over 1600 bird
species live in Brazil,
including 121
threatened species
(Noon & Young).
 Massive deforestation
occurring in Brazil
httpwww.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm://
Rate of Deforestation In
Brazil
Annual Forest Loss in Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)
Annual Forest Loss (sq. km)
35000
30000
25000
Annual Forest Loss (sq. km)
20000
Average Forest Loss in
Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)
15000
10000
5000
0
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
19
00
20
02
20
04
20
Year
http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html
Deforestation in Brazil (continued)
Image of a Fragmented Forest over several years.
http://chesapeake.towson.edu/landscape/forestfrag/all_habitatfrag.asp
•The further away a forest fragment is from other patches of forest, the
more susceptible it is to local extinction, and thus the species in these
forest fragments are even more vulnerable to extinction (Christiansen
and Pitter 1997).
Deforestation in Brazil
http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html
Estimated Remaining Forest Cover in the
Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)
Estimated Remaining Forest Cover in the Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)
3300000
3250000
3200000
3150000
Estimated Remaining Forest Cover
in the Brazilian Amazon (sq. km)
3100000
3050000
3000000
2950000
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html
The Effects of
Deforestation




Habitat loss
Concentration of Species
Increases Competition between bird species.
1.5 acres of rainforest are lost every second worldwide.
(http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm)
This graph shows the
remaining Atlantic Forests left
on the Eastern Coast of Brazil.
Over 90% of the primary forest
has been destroyed. (Harris
and Pimm 2004)
(Harris and Pimm 2004)
Impacts of Deforestation
 In a study by G. M. Harris and Pimm, it
was discovered that even bird species
who are adapted to secondary
rainforests, are just as susceptible to
extinction as birds who survive in primary
rainforests. (Harris & Pimm 2004).
Relating Avian Species Loss
to Amount of Deforestation
 Amount of Forest Cover Left in Brazil as
of 2005 = 2,966,060 km^2

(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)
 Estimated Remaining Bird Species in
Brazil = 1685
 Average Amount of Deforestation in
Brazil from 1990-2005 = 18,501 km^2/yr
(http://www.camacdonald.com/birding/sabrazil.htm)
(http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html)
A Relationship Detailing how
Bird Species are Affected by
Habitat Loss is Needed
 In a study by Brooks, Pimm, and Oyugi, a
mathematical relationship was developed that
predicted the number of bird species for a certain
amount of habitat. (Brooks et al 1999)
 Mathematical relationship was shown to work
accurately in Kenya, Brazil, and parts of North America
 Relationship is S=cA^z (Brooks et al 1999)
 S = # of species, A is the amount of forest area, and z
is a constant shown to be 0.15 (Brooks et al 1999)
 c must be calculated by starting with an initial # of
species and amount of area
Solving for c
 In 2005, the relationship would look like:
 1685 birds = c*(2966060 km^2)^.15
 Solving for c gives a value of 180.2
 => S = 180.2*(A^.15)
Predicting Bird Loss
 This relationship was first explored with
Excel
 Results showed that Brazilian bird
species would be reduced from 1685
species to 1473 species by 2100.
 Loss of 212 bird species
Future Effects of
Deforestation of Bird
Populations
Projected Bird Species Remaining in Brazil Resulting from
Habitat Loss of 18,500 acres/year
y = -2.1905x + 6088
R2 = 0.9904
Number of Bird Species
1750
1700
Number of Bird
Species Remaining in
Brazil
1650
1600
Linear (Number of
Bird Species
Remaining in Brazil)
1550
1500
1450
2000
2050
2100
Year
2150
Using Stella
 Next, this relationship was explored using
a Stella Model
 The logical flow of the modeling system
in Stella allows for more understanding of
how habitat loss influences the number of
bird species.
Stella Model
Number of Brazilian Bird Species
Bird Species Lost
to Deforestation
C constant
Average Amount of
Forest Cut Down
Remaining Rainforest Cover
Amount of Forest Cut Down
Stella Graph Showing Number of Brazilian Bird Species
Lost with Average Deforestation Rate of 10000 km^2/yr
1: Number of B razilian Bird S pecies
1:
1690
1
1
1:
1
1640
1
1:
1590
2005.00
Page 1
2028.75
2052.50
Years
2076.25
6:37 PM
2100.00
Mon, Dec 04, 2006
Untitled
By simply reducing the average deforestation rate to 10,000 km^2 a year,
bird species will be reduced from 1685 to 1591, a loss of 94 species by 2100.
For the Birds
 What keeps bird biodiversity high?
 Moisture in the ecosystem (Christiansen &
Pitter 1997)
 Spacious ecosystem
 Concentrated environment, avoid
boundaries
 Avoid isolation
Conclusion
 How to stop the declining bird
populations in Brazil
 Research is currently underway to determine
ways to use secondary forest in order to
house bird populations.
 However, as shown from our model
deforestation must be reduced in order to
reduce the amount of bird species that will
be lost due to deforestation.
Work Cited

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
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

Brooks, Pimm & Oyugi. 1999. “Time Lag between Deforestation and Bird Extinction
in Tropical Forest Fragments.” Conservation Biology, 13: 1140-1150.
Butler, Rhett A. "Deforestation in the Amazon." Mongabay. 2005. 30 Nov. 2006
<http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html>.
Christiansen M.B., Pitter E. 1997. Species loss in a forest bird community near
Lagoa Santa in southeastern Brazil. Biological Conservation, 80 (1): 23-32.
Harris, G. M. & Pimm. 2004. Bird Species' Tolerance of Secondary Forest Habitats
and Its Effects on Extinction. Conservation Biology, 18 (6): 1607-1616.
Noon & Young. 1991. Evidence of Continuing Worldwide Declines In Bird
Populations: Insights from an International Conference in New Zealand.
Conservation Biology, 5 (2) 141-143.
"Rainforest Facts." Raintree. 1996. Raintree Nutrition Inc. 28 Nov. 2006
<http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm>.
Stouffer, Bierregaard, Strong & Lovejoy. 2006. Long-Term Landscape Change and
Bird Abundance in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments. Conservation
Biology, 20 (4): 1212-1223
"The Process of Habitat Fragmentation." Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic From
Space. 30 Nov. 2006
<http://chesapeake.towson.edu/landscape/forestfrag/all_habitatfrag.asp>.
Votaw, Melanie. "Birds 2." Votaw Photography. Bomoco. 30 Nov. 2006
<http://www.votawphotography.com/photo/Birds/birds2.htm>.