Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Implications of a Paradigm Shift

The New
Ocean Management
Paradigm
Lessons from the Scotian Shelf
Bob O’Boyle
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
Canada
20th Century Ocean
Management Paradigm
• Sector by sector approach
–Objectives related to a sector’s
impact & requirements
–Management by sector with little
consideration of cross – sector
impacts
Sector = Fisheries, oil & gas, recreation, etc
Consensus for New Approach
• Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that
require new way of doing business
– Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted
by understanding individual mechanics of
component parts
• Need to manage for objectives related
to multiple ecosystem services
– Sustainable fisheries, clean water,
recreation, etc
We are in midst of
paradigm shift in
ocean management
Early in process but
outline is emerging
New Ocean Management Paradigm
• Ecosystem approach to management
(EAM) or Ecosystem Based Management
– Ecologically - based principles
– Cumulative & long-term impacts
– Cross – sector management
• Management strategy evaluation (MSE)
– Comparative performance of candidate
management strategies
– Consideration of uncertainty in each
element of management system
Management Strategy Evaluation
Operational Module
Ecosystem
Implementation
Management Strategy
Assessment, control
rules & implementation
Control Module
Monitoring
Assessment
Decision
Making
Control
Rules
From McAllister et. al. 1999
Objectives for delivery of ecosystem
services essential to new paradigm
EAM
How to identify in
face of conflicting
priorities
MSE
How to achieve
with state of
current knowledge
Ecosystem
Objectives
Types of Ecosystem Objectives
• Conceptual (policy level)
– Understandable to broad audience
– E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to pre1980 levels
• Operational (regulatory level)
– Links conceptual objective & management action
– E.g. Limit Area (sq Km) disturbed of Coral
Community to 5000 sq km
Indicator
Reference Point
Ecosystem Objectives Hierarchy
Overarching
Conceptual Objectives
Link to Treaties, Acts,
Legislation & Policy
Regional
Conceptual Objectives
Regional
Operational Objectives
Link to Overarching COs
Regional Priorities
Monitor Ecosystem States
Control Cumulative Impacts
E.g. Gulf of Maine
Sector
Operational Objectives
Control Sector Impacts
E.g. Fishery
Scotian Shelf Overarching Objectives
• Conserve biodiversity
– Conserve community diversity
– Recover species at risk of extinction
– Conserve subpopulation & genetic structure
• Maintain productivity
– Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g. predators
& prey)
– conserve ecosystem components at each level of
food chain
• Conserve habitat
– Conserve physical & chemical properties
Lessons learned
Overarching Objectives
• Hierarchical structure to objectives useful
– Transparent translation of general intent of
management to sector management actions
– Coordinates management of cumulative impacts
as long as same objectives used throughout
hierarchy
• Don’t fret about objectives structure itself
– Different ways to package same concepts as
long as ecosystem structure & function
addressed
Issue for conference
What are overarching objectives
for Gulf of Maine?
Regional Objectives
Ecosystem Characterization
• Ecosystem description
– Key components
– Key linkages
Useful to
synthesize in
model
Scotian Shelf
changes during
1980s & 1990s
modeled
Regional Objectives
Threats Analysis
Issue for conference
What are sectors & their impacts in
Gulf of Maine?
Regional Objectives
Scotian Shelf
• Initial set of objectives developed
through bottom – up stakeholder
engagement process
• DFO Science undertaking top – down
process independent of stakeholder
process
– Intent is to adjust initial set based upon
highest priorities for conservation
(ecological & biological significant areas &
species)
Issue still to be addressed is how to marry two sets of priorities
Lessons Learned
Regional objectives
• Develop conceptual model of
ecosystem
– Statement of current knowledge
• Develop scenarios of potential
future states
– Focus on key components &
thresholds to watch for
– Engage stakeholders in direction of
management
From Link et. Al., 2002
• Risk analysis to identify ecosystem
components to protect
– Develop indicators, reference points
& management actions for high risk
impacts
RISK
impact * probability
of not achieving
objective
Issues for conference
What are priority conservation issues
for Gulf of Maine?
What is role of science &
stakeholders in setting conservation
priorities for Gulf of Maine?
Sector Implementation
• Regional objectives being incorporated into 40+
Scotian Shelf fishery management plans
– Identifies what issues are being addressed
– Identifies gaps that need attention
Georges Bank
GF
Productivity
Primary
Community
Population
Biodiversity
Biotope/seascape
Species
Population
Habitat
Bottom
Water Column
HF
SF
L/CF
Limit alteration of essential nutrient concentrations affecting primary production
Limit trophic level catch biomass with respect to trophic demands of higher levels
Limit total catch biomass within system production capacity
Keep fishing mortality moderate
Permit sufficient spawning biomass to evade exploitation
Promote positive biomass change when biomass is low
Manage % size/age/sex of capture
Prevent disturbing activity in spawning areas/seasons
Manage discarded catch
Limit % area disturbed of seascape/biotope types
Limit incidental bycatch or mortality
Minimize change in distribution of invasive species
Distribute population component catch as a % of component biomass
Limit % area disturbed of habitat types
Limit amounts of contaminants, toxins and waste introduced in habitat
Minimize amount of lost of gear
Control noise level/frequency with respect to species of risk
Action Needed
Addressed
Lessons Learned
Sector Implementation
• Incorporate regional objectives into
existing sector management planning &
activities
– Identify gaps & address
• Undertake Management Strategy
Evaluation to determine most robust
means for each sector to achieve
objectives
Governance
Decision-makers
Fisheries
Science
Stakeholder
advisory group
Oil & Gas
Transport
NGOs
Forum for broadbased engagement
Issue: How much consensus?
Public
Lessons Learned
Governance
• Stakeholders
– Broad-based to represent diversity
– Focus to facilitate objective setting & scenario
development
• Regulators
– Implementation of new paradigm requires
regulators to be on side: cultural shift
• Build governance structures on what exists
– Illustrate how existing activities fit into
new paradigm
Lessons Learned (cont'd)
Governance
• Science
–Use objectives to define key
science priorities & link funding
to management deliverables
–Design science programs for
new paradigm: may involve new
institutions
Issue for conference
What is an effective
governance structure for the
Gulf of Maine?
What Science is needed?
• Ecosystems are complex systems
– Unpredictable future states
– Develop scenarios of potential future states
• Ecosystem modeling to identify
– key ecosystem components & thresholds that
cause changes in state
– Important system feedbacks
– Linkages between scales
– Phase of adaptive cycle
Ecosystem Models
• PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem
Synthesis of current
understanding
functioning to explore importance of
– Diversity of communities
– Functional groups & redundancies within
communities
– Linkages amongst communities
Community A
Community D
Community B
Community D
Simulate plausible ecosystem states &
how system might change between these
Adaptive Cycle
Current knowledge
will go only so far
Need new theory &
understanding
Biodiversity
• Community structure & dynamics
– How many communities are there, are
they stable over time, is their spatial
distribution predictable, how do they
react to ocean climate?
• Genetic processes
– What is impact of human activities on
genetic selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid
growth in Northwest Atlantic
What are relative roles of environment
& genetic selection on haddock growth?
NW Atlantic
NE Atlantic
4.0
4.0
5Z
4X bof
4X wss
4VW
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1970
NE Arctic
North Sea
Faroes
Icelandic
0.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Weight (kg) at Age 7
Observed in other species e.g. cod
Productivity & Food Chain
Eastern Scotian Shelf
• Are food chains controlled
top-down (by predators) or
bottom-up (by food supply?)
• Evidence to suggest that
overfishing could flip
ecosystem from bottom-up
to top-down
– Need quantitative
understanding of relationships
amongst exploitation,
biodiversity & ocean climate
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
Productivity & Reference Points
• What are consequences for reference points of longterm ecosystem changes?
– What should current reference points be? e.g. Eastern
Scotian Shelf cod
Carrying
Capacity
Rosenberg et. al, 2005
Spatial processes (small to large)
• Habitat - productivity linkage
– How are these linked? What is distribution of
habitats of differing sensitivities? Why are they
different & how do they respond to impact?
• Climate change
– Promises to be most significant future impact
on our ecosystems
– Need to understand linkage between Shelf
oceanography & broader climatology e.g.
Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of
Maine
NAO
Winter
Anomaly
NAO Winter Anomaly
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
• Linkage of Scotian Shelf /
Gulf of Maine with North
Atlantic atmospheric
system
• Different response to
NAO north & south of
Halifax
Periodic? Predictable?
1970 - 2003 bottom
C0 differences
(neg - pos anomaly)
Issue for conference
What are science
needs of new paradigm for
Gulf of Maine?
Summary
• In midst of ocean management
paradigm shift
• Will take time & effort to change
– need to stay the course
• Challenges but opportunities too
Thank You!
When NAO
Positive
Tendency for
Northern
Transition Zone
to move South
&
Southern
Transition Zones
to move North
60
55
Bottom
Community
Transition
Zones
50
Newfoundland
45
40
35
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Are these patterns
Predictable?
How stable are these
communities?
Community
Structure
&
Dynamics
Identified transitions
in bottom
communities
consistent with
circulation & mixing
patterns
Movement in
transition zones in
response to North
Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)
From Mahon et. al. 1998
Species Richness implicated (Frank et. al.,
2007)
Overfishing
• Reduces species richness
• May cause flip from
bottom – up to top –
down control
Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships
amongst exploitation & species richness & ocean climate
Spatial Processes
Shelf Scale
Natural bottom disturbance,
productivity & bottom
community distribution