Transcript Climate Change impacts pathways

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Wildfires
Elkford Impacts and Opportunities
Increased risk
of property
damage
Increased
hunting
opportunities
Economic/
social
disruption
Drier Forest
Warmer
annual
average
Temperatures
Increase in
suitable range
of Mountain
Pine Beetle
Road
Closures/
evacuations
Increased
atmospheric
moisture and
lightning
strikes
Increased
Frequency &
Severity of
Wildfires
More
Fuel in
Forest
Increase in
Burned
Landscapes
Increased risk
of erosion and
flooding
Increased
backcountry fire
risk for tourism
and recreation
Opportunities for
Berry and
Mushroom harvest
Health and
safety hazard
to public
Wildlife
composition
change/ impact
Decreased
Visual quality
Increased
Harvest/ salvage
opportunities
Wildfire Science
• In Elkford between 1900-2004, the summer minimum temperature
increased 1.0 to 1.5°C and maximum temperature increased 0.5 to 1.0 °C
• It is projected that between 2041-2070, summer temperatures in Elkford
will increase 2°C to 3°C and precipitation will decrease -10% to -5%
• Warmer temperatures lead to drier forests and an increased frequency
and severity of wildfires
• Increases in atmospheric moisture could lead to increases in lightningcaused fire ignitions
• Warmer temperatures have been shown to increase the climatically
suitable range of the mountain pine beetle. Forests damaged by MPB are
more susceptible to fire risk
Flooding & Landslides
Elkford Potential
and Opportunities
ElkfordFlood
ImpactsImpacts
and Opportunities
Increased
frequency and
intensity of
extreme weather
events
Public health
and safety
Financial loss
for District
Liability risk
Insurance cost
Increased
winter
precipitation
Increased risk
of flooding &
landslides
Economic
disruption
Earlier spring
snow melt
Increased risk
of property
damage
Increased
erosion
Increased runoff
from forest
impacted by fire
and pests
Increased
glacial melt
Potential increase
in height of
floodplain
Increased cost
of stormwater
infrastructure
Flood/ Stormwater/ Erosion Science
• It is projected that between 2041-2070, precipitation will increase in the
winter by 20% to 25% and in the spring by 0% to 5%
• The frequency and severity of spring flooding in British Columbia could be
affected by four separate factors: an increase in winter precipitation, a
reduction in the extent and duration of snow cover, an earlier spring
melt, and increased runoff from watersheds in which forests have been
killed by the mountain pine beetle infestation
• Wildfires can cause soils to be hydrophobic (water repellent), which
increases surface runoff and erosion and can increase flood risk near
post-burn sites
• Projected warming in the western mountains by the mid-21st century is
very likely to cause glacial melt, earlier spring snow melt, more winter
rain events, and increased peak winter flows which could lead to
increases in spring flooding events
Water Availability
Elkford Potential
Water
Availability
Impacts
Elkford Impacts and Opportunities
Economic/
tourism
disruption
Shift in timing
and amount of
precipitation
Impacts on
Fish
Populations
Earlier snow melt
Longer periods of low stream
flow
More prolonged droughts
Increase in
average
temperature
Greater cost
for water
Glacial retreat/ declining
snowpack
Reduced
Water
Availability
Increased
competition
over water
resources
Less rain in summer
Impacts on
local farming
Changes to
groundwater
recharge and
discharge rates
Impact on
water table
depth
Water Availability Science
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It is projected there will be -10% to -5% less precipitation in Elkford’s summers between 2041 and
2070
Observed changes in the Columbia Basin in the last century include longer periods of low stream
flow, and lower flows at the end of summer
Smaller glaciers, declining snowpack, shifts in timing and amount of precipitation, and prolonged
drought will increasingly limit water supply during periods of peak demand
Glacial fed streams will likely have good late summer streamflow until glacier recession has
reached a critical point. At that criticial point it is unknown what will happen. More study on
Elkford’s glaciers is needed.
Decreasing snowpack and glacial melt will limit the quantity and alter the timing of water
availability
Changes in temperature and precipitation may alter water table depths
Reductions in stream flow will have negative effects on both groundwater recharge and discharge
rates
Reduced water supplies coupled with increases in demand are likely to exacerbate competition
for water resources
Snow
Elkford Potential
Snow and
Impacts
& Opportunities
Elkford Impacts
Opportunities
Reduction in
number of
skiable days
Reduced winter
tourism &
recreation
opportunities
Earlier
spring snow
melt
Shift in timing
and amount of
precipitation
Increase in
average
temperature
Increased
winter rain
events
Reduced
winter
recreation
options
Reduced
Winter
Snowpack
Glacial
retreat
Reduced
snow
removal
costs
Prolonged
summer
tourism and
recreation
Less favourable
back country
conditions
Less snow =
less shovelling
Snow Pack Science
• Warmer temperatures, increased rain event, and earlier spring melt are
expected to reduce the winter snowpack in BC
• In the last 50 years in Southern BC, less annual snowfall has led to a
decreased snowpack in spring and at lower elevations
• In BC as a whole there has been a decrease in the snow to total
precipitation ratio (more rain, less snow during cold season)
• Snowpack analysis from 1956-2005 suggests that that the snowpack in
BC decreased 4%, the Kootenays decreased 6%, and the East Kootenay
decreased 13% (Annual average snow water equivalents on April 1- with
‘natural variability’ removed)
• Projected rises in snowlines due to warming temperatures will likely
impact ski operations across the province
• A -4% and -12% reduction in snowpack in the Canadian side of the
Columbia River Basin is predicted for 2020s and 2040s respectively.
PestsMountain
PineBeetle
Beetle
PestsMountain Pine
Elkford Impacts and Opportunities
Increased risk
of flooding
Favourable
winter
temperature
for pine beetle
survival
Increase in
average
temperature
Favourable
summer
temperature for
pine beetle
reproduction
Changes in
water runoff
and peak
flows
Change in
forest
hydrological
cycle
Higher water
table
Changes in
resource supply
and forest
production
Threat of
Mountain Pine
Beetle
Epidemic
Increased pine
mortality
Increased
growing degree
days
Abundance of
mature pine in
BC
Economic
vitality with
changes in
harvesting
rates
Increased
allowable
harvest during
peak epidemic
Shortage of
wood supply
in future (1550 years)
Increased
fuel for fire
in forest
Pests - Mountain Pine Beetle Science
• A general shift of beetle habitats has occurred northwards and toward higher
elevation
• Areas most suitable for Mountain Pine Beetle have dramatically expanded
into south-central and south-eastern British Columbia
• Likely that Mountain Pine Beetle will overcome the barriers of high
mountains as climate continues to change
• Pine beetle outbreak is not expected to be as dramatic as seen in central
interior, but will be significant and peak around 2011 in our region.
• Harvesting practices will likely be adjusted to account for increased beetle kill
timber. Consideration must be given to a fluctuation in harvest; potential
increase in near future with sharp decrease after beetle infestation.
• With increased harvesting, landslides and erosion more likely to occur.
Ecosystem
Shift
Ecosystem shift
Elkford Impacts and Opportunities
Less mobile
species decline
Human
barriers
Increase in
average
temperature
Human
Disturbances
Highly mobile
species
migrate
Range and
abundance
shifts in
species
Changes in
climate
suitability for
plant species
Increased
vulnerability to
disease/
invasive species
Loss of
genetic
diversity
Genetic
pressure on
species with
high
adaptability
Decline of
alpine
populations
or species
Loss of
alpine
ecosystems
Most species
shift upwards
and northwards
Loss of Montane
Spruce and
Engleman
Spruce habitat
Increased
grasslands
Economic
impacts
Changes in
forestry
practices
Job losses or
adjustments
in forestry
industry
Habitat and Forest Impacts Science
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Ecosystems in mountainous regions appear to be particularly vulnerable, and in
many cases will have no where to migrate to (i.e. these ecosystems will decline
and/or disappear).
Changes in ecological zones may have impacts on the hydrological cycle, current
forest practices, species and occurrence of disease and invasive plant species.
The following table outlines the changes in the ecological zones that are currently
present in the Elkford region.
Ecological Zone
By year
Elevation Shift
(meters)
Engelmann SpruceSubalpine Fir
2025
2055
2025
2055
2025
2055
+86 m
+ 143 m
- 28 m
- 22 m
+ 168 m
+ 303 m
Montane Spruce
Alpine Tundra
Northward
Shift
(kilometers)
+ 154 km
+ 224 km
+ 149 km
+ 302 km
- 5 km
- 67 km
Area Change
(%)
6%
3%
- 19%
- 40%
- 60%
- 85%
Species
Change
Species
Elkford Impacts and Opportunities
Changes to
predator-prey
relationships
Changes to
competitive
interactions
Alterations to
life-cycle
mechanisms
New hunting
opportunities
Tourism &
Recreation
impacts
Hunting
season change
Lack of
corridors
Increase in
average
temperatures
Changes to
species lifecycle
and migration
patterns
Vulnerability
to changes in
food
availability
Vulnerability
to migration
barriers
Changes to
structure and
function of
ecosystems
Unpredictabl
e migration
patterns
Human
disturbance
Isolated
ecosystems
(i.e.alpine)
Wildlife Science
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Adjustments, adaptations and impacts from climate change will likely happen on a
species-specific level
The ability for species to migrate will be impacted by habitat degradation and loss,
natural disturbances (fires), and human impacts
The rate of warming expected during this century will likely exceed the ability of
many species to migrate and adapt. Species loss is expected, particularly for lower
mobility species
Lifecycles will change for those dependent on heat (i.e. larvae of insects, etc.)
Migrating species are vulnerable to changes in timing of migrations and availability of
food
Genetic diversity may be impacted as climate change will select those individuals
with greater genetic ability to adapt.
There will be introduction of new species, and loss of ones currently existing in this
region.