Transcript 1091-L5(assessment)

Conservation Biology BISC 309
Lecture 5
Conservation Genetics wrap-up
Course assessment - details
Do small populations have higher levels of
inbreeding, reduced heterozygosity and
lower levels of genetic variation? YES
Does inbreeding/loss of heterozygosity
reduce a population’s ability to adapt?
YES
What is the unresolved issue?
Evolution requires h2 = VA/VP
Geneticists typically measure H and A
using neutral markers
We don’t know if H predicts h2
How closely correlated are molecular and
quantitative measures of genetic variation?
Reed and Frankham
meta-analysis - 71 datasets
mean corr r = 0.22
H and life history traits r = -0.11 ns
H and morph traits r = 0.30
Molecular measures of variation provide a
very imprecise measure of evolutionary
potential
Next Q
How big do populations have to be to
avoid losing genetic variation and the
ability to adapt?
How big is big enough?
Franklin (1982)
Argued VA determines evolutionary potential
VA at eqm depends on the balance
between gain (mutation) and
loss (drift)
Change VA = Vm - VA/2Ne
Require Ne when there is no change so
0 = Vm - VA/2Ne
Ne=VA/2Vm
How big is big enough?
Franklin (1982) used Vm=10-3VE Drosophila
Ne= VA/2(10-3.VE) = 500 VA/VE
since h2 = VA/VP ≈ VA/(VA+VE)
Ne = 500 h2/(1- h2)
if heritability 0.5
Need Ne = 500 -----> N = 5000 Q.why?
to avoid losing evolutionary potentia
How big is big enough?
Retaining genetic diversity in perpetuity
requires
Effective sizes of at least 500
Census population sizes of 5000
But how large are threatened
populations?
IUCN
Criterion
Critically
Endangered
Endangered
Threatened
Reduction in
population size
10 yrs 3
generations
>80%
>50%
>30%
Small range
<100 km2
<5000 km2
<20,000 km2
Very Small
population
<50
<250
<1000
Quantitative analysis
>50%
>20%
>10%
Eg PVA
10 yrs 20 yrs
100 yrs
Or 3 gen
or 5 gen
High profile threatened taxa
Giant panda
1000
Whooping crane
340
Mauna Kea
silversword
500
Recovery targets for delisting
Black-footed ferret 1500 adults in 10 pop’ns
Sea otter
2650
California condor
150 in 2 pop’ns + 150 captive
Peregrine falcon900 DELISTED in US
Red cockaded woodpecker 500 in 5 populations
Lakeside daisy
1000 plants
Target sizes are rarely based on genetic concerns
Summary
Population size influences evolutionary
potential by reducing S, and reducing
heritability (via loss of heterozygosity)
To retain evolutionary potential effective
population sizes of 500 have been
recommended ie 5000
Current pop’n sizes for most threatened
spp in the wild or captivity are too small
to avoid genetic deterioration
At this point you should now be able to:
Calculate Ne, H, F
Understand how/why Ne influences
heterozygosity, inbreeding and
evolutionary potential
Explain why it is important to conserve
genetic variation
Discuss whether current recovery targets
for endangered species are sufficient.
Genetics (basics) - alleles, heterozygosity,
genetic drift, inbreeding, quantitative traits
Evolutionary Analysis Fourth Edition
Conservation Genetics
Ch 11.
Ed)
Ch’s in
Principles of Conservation Biology (3rd
Introduction to Conservation Genetics
Papers on Conservation Genetics
Week 2 readings
Week 3 readings ----- on course webpage
Assessment
Exams
Midterm
20% or 15? Feb 18
Final
20% and 25? April 16
Tutorial
Participation 5%
Presentation 15%
Writing
Newspaper article
Recovery Plan
15%
25%
Goals of Presentation/Mini-lecture
1 to allow independent research relating to a
current issue in conservation biology
2 to provide an opportunity for you to give a
presentation in an informal setting
3 to increase the breadth of topics
discussed during this course
4 to illustrate how scientific research is
addressing conservation questions
Format of Presentation/Mini-lecture
2-3 presenters
10-12 minute presentation - powerpoint
3 minute discussion period
Content of Presentation/Mini-lecture
Topic - any conservation oriented issue
(local, national, global)
TALK
-
introduce issue
identify key question or argument
give background
describe recent research
ie one or two studies
- what do new results mean
DISCUSSION- lead/prompt input from class
- NOT a Q/Ans session
Goals of newspaper article
1 to allow independent research relating to a
current issue in conservation biology
2 to develop the ability to communicate the
importance and relevance of scientific
research to a general audience
3 to increase awareness of conservation
issues on campus
Format/content of Newspaper article
The article is to be written independently
Word limit 1000 words (minimum 500)
The article should
be entertaining
introduce why an issue is important
describe the importance of recent research
be critical and evaluate competing points of
view
identify the key sources of information
Getting started with the presentation/article
Finding a topic
Sources of ideas
your personal experience
newspaper or magazine articles
the internet
scientific journals
Finding a topic - example 1
Cruising the scientific journals
Hunter 2007 Climate change and moving species:
furthering the debate on assisted colonization.
Conservation Biology 21: 1356-58
Issue:
Climate change is likely to drive extinctions
Possible Actions
Increase connectivity to enhance movement
Increase efforts to minimise climate change
or
Assisted colonization
Florida torreya
1000 trees left
Decline linked to climate
change - few new seeds are
found
Proposed - assisted colonization
Move spp. 500 km Northwards
--> southern Appalachians
Not found there for 65 million years!
Finding a topic - example 2
Cruising the scientific journals
Garcia VB and others 2008 The importance of habitat and life
history characters to extinction risk in sharks skates rays and
chimaeras.
Proc. R Soc Lond 275:83-89
Issue
Deep water fisheries are seen as an
alternative to depleted shallow water
fisheries
40% Mediterranean
sharks and rays
threatened with
extinction
Finding a topic - example 2
Cruising the scientific journals
Garcia VB and others 2008 The importance of habitat and life
history characters to extinction risk in sharks skates rays and
chimaeras.
Proc. R Soc Lond 275:83-89
Question
Do “slow” life histories of deep water
species make them even more vulnerable
to extinction?
Finding a topic - example 3
Cruising the internet
Science Daily Jan 14 2008
Greenhouse oceans may downsize fish, risking one of
most productive fisheries
Bering Sea
diatoms --> large zooplankton ---> large fish
Produces 1/2 fish ct in US waters 1/3 fish ct
worldwide
ISSUE
Greenhouse conditions favour small phytoplankton
---> change in food chain
---> reduced ability to soak up atmospheric CO2
Finding a topic - example 4
Cruising the internet
National Geographic News Jan 11 2008
Ants, Acacias drop truce when wildlife threat drops
Acacias provide “home”
Ants protect against
herbivores
What happens when large herbivores are
lost from the system?
Finding a topic
Reading the Newspaper - example 5
Guardian weekly - Too many elephants in the room
Jan 4 2008
ISSUE - Elephants in SA
12,500 elephants in Kruger National Park
QUESTION
Is the large/growing population threatening
the habitat of other species
Finding a topic
Reading the Newspaper - example 5
Guardian weekly - Too many elephants in the room
Jan 4 2008
Options
Resume culling
Translocations
Allow movement
Sterilization program
Q. How does sterilization influence male
behavior and female fecundity?
Finding a topic - do this SOON
Developing your topic
Read up on the basics
Search for scientific articles
by author or by topic
Talk to people
Writing
DUE FEB 27 5 pm
Be engaging but provide context and
more content and critical evaluation than in
shorter media articles
Get comments from friends/siblings/someone
Goals for the Recovery Strategy assignment
1. To help understand the listing and
recovery planning process in BC and Canada
2. To practise using your scientific training to
collect data on a threatened spp
assess evidence for population declines
identify key threats to the species
identify critical habitat areas
suggest actions that will halt population
declines and aid recovery
Format for the Recovery Strategy assignment
4 sections
Summary 250 words
Background and Status 650 words
Recovery Plan 1100 words
Action Plan
1000 words
Plus references
Figures
Format for the Recovery Strategy assignment
Summary - the bottom line in 250 words
Background and Status
Recovery Plan
Action Plan
Format for the Recovery Strategy assignment
Summary
Background and Status - distribution
- biology
- population #, sizes
- trends
- significance
- status
Recovery Plan
Action Plan
Format for the Recovery Strategy assignment
Summary
Background and Status
Recovery Plan - scientific knowledge (gaps)
declining? Why?
measurable objectives
critical habitat (what/where)
how could declines be halted
rationale for approach
Action Plan
Format for the Recovery Strategy assignment
Summary
Background and Status
Recovery Plan
Action Plan - who are the stakeholders
- does critical habitat need
protection
- what legislation may be useful
- socio-economic cost
of spp loss
of conservation actions
The Recovery strategy assignment
Getting started
Finding a species
BC Ecosystem Species Explorer
www.env.gov.bc.ca/atrisk/toolintro.html
COSEWIC/SAR webpages
Your species
may be listed or
may be a candidate for assessment
but can not have a published recovery plan
The Recovery strategy assignment
Further info on webpage
Me - Guidelines for assignment
CWS - Templates for Recovery Plans
Examples
Real recovery strategies are on the
SAR website
Questions
about assignments
in general
Your Input
on assessment
on workload
on course